Poll roller coaster continues, with SUSA showing Clinton holding firm with 12 hours to go

Whatever the results tomorrow, there will be a group of pollsters that will come out the clear losers of the run-up to Super Tuesday. On the one side we have groups like Zogby and Rasmussen which show Obama with higher-than-average results, on the other are Mason-Dixon, ARG and SUSA which are much much more reassuring to Clinton's chances. Depending on which institute has released the latest wave of polls, Clinton and Obama supporters are trading optimism for depression and vice-versa.

What can these discrepancies be attributed to? It is important to note that each institute is consistent in showing an Obama uptick or a Clinton uptick: Zogby has great Obama results in California but also in Missouri and New Jersey; and Mason-Dixon and SUSA have Clinton up higher than expected in most of their polls as well. This suggests that pollsters are using widely differing turnout models -- not only with the composition of the electorate but how many new voters show up and who these new voters are. Don't necessarily assume that new voters favor one candidate or the other, as both Iowa and New Hampshire Democrats voted in record numbers... to differing results. At this point there is no way of knowing which pollster we should trust, and we will have to wait for the results to come in tomorrow.

Meanwhile, here are the latest trends, mostly based on SUSA's massive release of polls. First up, of course, is the big prize of California, the state for which we could stay up very late tomorrow night:

• SUSA has Clinton up 53% to 41% in a week-end poll, which is a slight improvement for the NY Senator who led 49% to 38% last week. The key finding of the poll is that 34% of voters have already voted, and Clinton leads by 12% among those as well. The second crucial internal from the poll is that Latinos (27% of the electorate here) are giving 71% of their vote to Clinton.
• The Republican numbers are in line with other numbers and have a toss-up between McCain at 39% and Romney at 36%. A week ago, McCain had 36% and Romney had 25%, so this is a significant progression for Romney. Among those who have already voted (35%), Romney is down 5%.

I have long emphasized that early-voting was a big hurdle that Obama and Romney would have to overcome. And while there is no question that many of the people who voted Clinton early would have voted Hillary anyway, there is little doubt that some voters who are now locked in could have been susceptible to this late Obama momentum.

Next, we get three polls from Clinton and Obama's home states:

• In New York, SUSA shows Clinton staying ahead 56% to 38%, a bigger margin than in some other polls we have seen. Clinton really needs to get a massive delegate lead here to offset possible losses elsewhere. Worth noting is that Obama wins the male vote, in what is a 44% gender gap!
• In PPP's survey, Clinton has a similar lead, 51% to 32%.
• The GOP numbers have McCain up 56% to 23% in SUSA and 49% to 24% in PPP.


• In Illinois, it's Obama that is widely ahead in the SUSA poll 66% to 30%. Clinton only gets 17% of the white vote.
• Among Republicans, McCain does not tremble, 46% to 25% for Romney and 17% for Huck.

The Democratic numbers in these states are actually very important, as Illinois and New York will attribute a large numbers of delegates and both candidates want to get a lead in their home states to offset potential losses elsewhere. In New York, Clinton has a robust lead in all regions of the state, but Obama is also coming in consistently above 30% which should allow him to split delegates equally in all districts that allocate an even number of delegates! Clinton's Illinois position is a bit more precarious, as she is weak enough overall that she could let Obama get two extra delegates in even districts. And don't be surprised if Clinton gets shut out in some districts of Chicago.

Completing the Northeast picture, SUSA releases final numbers from New Jersey, Connecticut and Massachusetts. Polls from all three have shown tight races in the past week but SUSA partly disagrees:

• In New Jersey, SUSA gives Clinton a reassuring 52% to 41% lead, in line with another poll released this morning that showed Clinton holding firm in the Garden State. The gender gap is 42%.
• In Massachusetts, SUSA has Clinton surviving 56% to 39% thanks to a 62% gender gap!! SUSA does show a 7% Obama progression in a week.
• In Connecticut, however, it's Obama, 48% to 46% (he led 48% to 44% a few days ago) in a race with a small gender gap, small age gap and small geographical differences.
  


• All those states show no suspense in the GOP race, and only MA is not winner-take-all and so the margin has to be watched. In NJ, it's McCain 54-25; in Connecticut, 52-30. And in Massachusetts, Romney is up 58-30.

In many ways, Clinton would rather lose Massachusetts than Connecticut. Losing the former could be attributed to Kennedy's influence, while Connecticut is in Clinton's own backyard. And with that we move to Missouri, a swing state in both parties in which SUSA once again is kind to the New York Senator:

• Clinton is up 54% to 43%, a noticeable progression since SUSA's poll released earlier this week in what SUSA calls "Last Minute Momentum to Clinton." It had been a while Hillary's camp hadn't read those words.
• The GOP 's Missouri primary might be the single most important contest in the Republican race, as the winner will get all of the state's 58 delegates. And as in many other polls, SUSA has it too close to call, with McCain at 33%, Huckabee 31% and Romney 28%.

Both Obama and Romney really want to win this state. A Clinton victory here would allow her to show she has appeal in the Midwest and that she can attract voters in a purple state that has been leaning red. And a McCain win would virtually leave Romney no path towards keeping the delegate count close.

And with that we move South, to Georgia and Alabama which are holding very tight contests as well. In Alabama, it is the Democratic race which is key now that Edwards's withdrawal has opened up a path for Clinton to win if the electorate in the South stays as racially polarized as in SC. We got three polls from AL:

• SUSA shows Obama up 49% to 47%, CPR has Clinton up 48% to 44% and Insider Advantage shows a toss-up, with Obama at 45% and Clinton at 44%.
• Among Republicans, AL has long been a McCain-Huckabee contest. SUSA has McCain stumbling a bit in the past few days and now up 37% to 35%, CPR has it at 36-30.


• In Georgia, PPP confirms Obama's lead 53% to 37%, but it is the GOP race that is more important in this state. PPP pits it at 31-29-27 (McCain-Romney-Huckabee), with Insider Advantage at 32 McCain-31 Romney-26 Huckabee.


• The latest updates from Tennessee and Oklahoma (PPP and SUSA) respectively confirm that Clinton has a wide lead there (56-34 and 54-27) but the GOP race is closer (34-28 for McCain-Huck in TN and 37-32 between them in Oklahoma).

As always, these numbers tell us first and foremost that the delegate count will probably stay close in the Dem race. And odds are that, if one candidate emerges with a significant delegate lead, it will be because of the margins in New York and Illinois rather than because of who won Missouri, California and Connecticut by a point of two.

• General election poll
  

A quick note about RAsmussen's latest general election numbers which are as over the place as the primary polls: McCain leads Clinton 47% to 39% but ties Obama at 44%. But the electability is reversed in Romney's matchups, as Clinton crushes him 50% to 37% and Obama is much closer, 44% to 41%. Rasmussen had only released Clinton-McCain and Romney-Obama yesterday and the rest today, so it appears that those two match-ups were tested in one sample, and that Clinton-Romney and McCain-Obama were tested in another. Simple sample differences would then explain why the first two are much more favorable to Democrats than the last two. I don't know, however, why such a sample split would be a good idea.

Polling tide shifts once more to Obama, as Zogby's trackings show him with expanding leads

As the Republican race is getting slightly more exciting in the run-up to Super Tuesday, I will keep the Democratic and Republican numbers separate in analyzing a large number of new polls.

Democrats: With the release of a worrisome new wave of tracking polls, the tide in good poll news has switched back from Clinton to Obama, with Zogby going as far as suggest as Obama could have a "big night" if this momentum holds up (the Zogby polls were taken Friday to Sunday, making them the most up-to-date, though barely so). But it is worth noting that Mason-Dixon's numbers that were a bit more skeptical of a Clinton decline are supported by other surveys.

First, as always, comes California:

• Zogby shows Obama expanding his lead, now ahead 46% to 40% against Clinton. He was up 45% to 41% yesterday. And get this, Zogby says that Obama is leading Clinton 49% to 32% on Sunday polling alone (though these small samples have a huge margin of error and often show big fluctuations); but it is undeniable that Obama's surge is being felt.

• Obama's surge in California -- also underscored by Rasmussen poll hours this afternoon that showed him edging Clinton by a point -- is confirming by a Suffolk poll that has Obama up 40% to 39%.

• But an ARG survey has Clinton up 47% to 39%. The ARG poll has Clinton ahead 51% to 34% among registered Democrats but trailing 63% to 27% among independents (who only make up 14% of voters in this model).

It is very hard to get a sense of where California is heading, especially when you keep in mind that Obama actually needs to get his voters to the poll whereas Clinton can in all likelihood depend in some sort of lead among early-voters. Remember also that a California victory is mostly meant for spin, and that the real fight will be waged at the district level where Obama could do well by cleaning out the numerous Republican districts that have fewer Democratic voters.

Next comes the all important states of Missouri and New Jersey:

• Zogby has New Jersey staying in a tie, at 43%, the first survey that has ever shown Clinton not winning in the Garden State. Here again, remember that Zogby is being more optimistic for Obama than other recent polls, whether Mason Dixon or Mormouth University.

• In Missouri, Obama surges ahead. He was down 1% yesterday, today he is ahead 47% to 42%, underscoring the extent of Obama's last-minute rise.

We end with the South, in Georgia and Tennessee:

• In Georgia, Zogby shows Obama crushing Clinton 48% to 31%, which is actually a slight improvement for Clinton.
• Insider Advantage also polled Georgia and found Obama ahead 51% to 36%.


• In Tennessee, Insider Advantage has Clinton ahead 55% to 35%, a double-digit improvement by Obama in the matter of a few days but he still remains far.

Clinton cannot afford to lose New Jersey, and Missouri should rather be classified as a must-win state for Obama, albeit one in which he trailed for a long time so his surge here is impressive. Meanwhile, Georgia and Tennessee are among the least suspenseful of Super Tuesday, as there is polling consensus about their splitting between Hillary and Barack.

Republicans: Romney's come back is still as improbable, but there are some signs that are pointing to its possibility. First in California, where two new polls have Romney in the lead:

• Zogby has Romney expanding his California poll, now up 50% to 42% (it was 47-44 yesterday). Romney winning by a substantial margin could mean that he also gets most districts, ensuring he gets a lot more delegates than expected out of Super Tuesday.
• The ARG poll has Romney edging out McCain 33% to 32%, with Huckabee at 16%.

Essential to Romney's chances is McCain losing Missouri and its winner-take-all 58 delegates. At worse, Romney has to hope that Huckabee can topple McCain here to prevent the Arizona Senator from amassing too many delegates. The latest Zogby poll has McCain up with 35% to 27% for Huckabee and 24% for Romney. Other polls have the race closer.

Zogby also polled the unsuspenseful New York race (53% to 19% McCain) and New Jersey (52% to 26% McCain). Both being winner-take-all, even the proportions the candidates receive do not matter, and we can go straight to the fascinating Southern polls of Insider Advantage.

• Georgia will be one of the three keys to the GOP contest on Tuesday, along with MO and CA, and Insider Advantage shows a complete toss-up: 30% Romney, 29% McCain, 28% Huckabee. Even a win by one vote gets whoever gets on top 33 statewide winner-take-all delegates. In a poll released on the 31st, it was 35% McCain and 24% each for Huckabee and Romney.


• In Tennessee, meanwhile, McCain's massive lead a few days ago (33-25 Huckabee-18 Romney) has tightened as well, with McCain up 32% to 30% to Huckabee and 22% for Romney.

The Republican race still unexpectedly holds some suspense, due in large part to Romney's stunning ability to keep California in play. After the rallying of prominent figures to the McCain wagon and the aura of inevitability the campaign acquired, the mere fact that McCain still has to fight for this underscores how much many conservatives mistrust the Arizona Senator.

In new wave of polls, Obama takes lead in California and candidates tie in major battlegrounds

Zogby just released its first wave of tracking polls from key Super Tuesday states -- including the first California poll in a few days. And overall these surveys are very good news for Obama supporters, as well as for backers of John McCain... though there is unexpected good news for Mitt Romney as well. Add to this a few other polls released over the past few hours, including the notorious Field poll, and we are in for a wild ride to Super Tuesday.

In the fascinating Clinton-Obama showdown, the numbers are now tight across the board. Only a few states that are being polled (New York, Illinois, Georgia) have a clear leader. The rest of the states -- including some very major contests like CT, NJ, MA, AZ, NM, CA, MO, AL -- are way too close to predict at this point.

This means that the delegate count will be excruciatingly close come Wednesday morning, whether or not one of the candidate pulls ahead in the next two days. But also consider that, with Obama and Clinton separated by a few points in all those states and the campaign now national, Obama could post a massive across-the-board victory in most of these contests on Tuesday night by just gaining a few more points until then. Even if he only prevails by 2-3% each in California, Missouri, Connecticut, Alabama, Arizona, New Jersey and he splits the delegates equally with Clinton, it will clearly be seen as a major victory for Barack. Similarly, a recovery of just a few points -- or a stabilization -- by Clinton could mean that she sweeps all those races, and she would emerge of Super Tuesday as the survivor.

Remember, the race will be analyzed as a delegate contest only if the candidates split the major states pretty much equally. And 72 hours from polls closing, the race is in such flux that a sweep is very much possible -- by either candidate.

And with that, let's get to the polls and let's start with the numbers from California, as we have truly stunning numbers for both parties:

• Zogby shows Barack Obama ahead, 45% to 41%. Obama pulls off this stunning come back because of his strength among independents, men and African-American. Clinton's lead among women is "only" 11%, though it is worth noting that she shows no sign of weakening among Hispanic (64% to 29%).


• The Field poll, meanwhile, shows Clinton up 34% to 32% for Obama with 18% of voters undecideds, a high number which makes it hard to compare this survey with Zogby's. The Field poll is known as by far the best poll of California. Two weeks ago, this poll had Clinton up 12%. One reason for this decline is Obama's massive lead among independents, 54% to 32%. Clinton leads among registered Democrats, 37% to 31%. However, the poll was conducted from January 25th to February 1st, so it is unclear how useful of an indicator it is of what is happening in the state, and the low numbers the two candidates are getting is also due to the fact Edwards was in the race for some of this time.
  


• Both polls have numbers for the GOP race as well. And believe it or not, California is one state in which Romney could actually prevail. Don't forget that the GOP contest here is a closed primary. The Field poll has McCain leading 32% to 24%, with Huckabee at 13% and Ron Paul at 10%.
• The Zogby poll, however, has Romney leading 37% to McCain's 34%. Huckabee gets 12%. Romney is ahead 56% to 18% among very conservative voters.
• We also got a poll from Suffolk earlier tonight, which showed McCain 39% to 32%.

• The Field poll also tried general election numbers and shows Clinton up 45% to 43% and Obama up 47% to 40% against McCain in California, suggesting that there is a major anti-Clinton mood in California right now. The New York Senator led her Arizona colleague by double-digits just two weeks ago.
  

There were signs pointing to Clinton's collapse in the state in polls released last week but Zogby's is the first that shows Obama in the lead. Unfortunately, neither Zogby nor the Field Poll give us any indication of how the early vote breakdowns are affecting the results. With about 25% of the electorate having already locked in their vote, where do these voters fall? It seems unthinkable that early-voting is not taken into account, but it is also really strange that there is no mention of that in either survey!

Clinton should also be reassured that she has kept her lead among Hispanics despite Obama's efforts to cut his losses there. But Clinton is certainly losing her hope of getting a big delegate lead out of California. No one will claim the lion's share of the state's 370 pledged delegates.

Among Republicans, the fact that Romney is staying alive is truly stunning. And he will certainly be able to press on if he pulls off a victory here. But let's not overestimate the impact of even such an unexpected exploit: California is not a winner-take-all state, so McCain will not be shut out of delegates no matter what. But contests where McCain seems untouchable right now (CT, NJ, NY, AZ) are winner-take-all. And Romney will be shut out of delegates there.

Next we have unexpectedly tightening numbers in another state Clinton has to do well in, New Jersey. The last two polls had Clinton up 6 and 12, and two new polls released tonight paint even more opposite pictures:

• Zogby's poll has Clinton having entirely collapsed, edging out Obama 43% to 42% edge. Clinton is ahead among women by only 9% and is holding on to a big lead among whites and liberals; Obama is crushing Clinton among blacks (74-16).
• But Clinton should be reassured by a Monmouth survey that has her up 50% to 36%. One big difference is that Obama's lead among African-American is much less pronounced (57% to 24%). The poll was taken from Wednesday to Friday, so it greatly overlaps with Zogby's.

• Among Republicans, McCain shows no sign of trembling and is likely to get all of the state's delegates. He is ahead 55% to 23% for Romney in the Monmouth poll, almost exactly the same as Zogby's 54% to 23%.

The Tri-State area is clearly no longer a Clinton stronghold, though New Jersey is still looking a bit better for Hillary than Connecticut. There is no question that losing one of the area's three states could be a blow to Clinton, but losing two could be a terrible symbol (I don't think there is much of a need to say what would happen if Clinton loses New York), and one that many newspapers will lead with since press time will come before the victors are known in the Western states.

Zogby provides us also with numbers from Missouri, one of the most fascinating battlegrounds of Super Tuesday:

• Here again, the Clinton-Obama dual is completely tied, with Clinton at 44% and Obama at 43%. Clinton does better among liberals, and Obama among independents. These numbers are consistent with other polls we have seen over the past two days that have consistently shown a toss-up in this state.


• Among Republicans, McCain is up 36% to Huckabee's 27% and Romney's 22%. This contest is also winner-take-all for the GOP, so even such a small victory could give McCain 100% of the delegates. If Romney and Huckabee want to prevent McCain from getting the nomination on Tuesday, they have to stop him from getting Missouri's delegates as that -- combined with those from the Tri-State area -- could really give him too big a lead.

Zogby finishes things off with numbers from two states that are heading towards landslides:

• In Georgia, Barack Obama is ahead 48% to 28%, confirming other polls of this past week. Georgia's demographics are similar to South Carolina's. Also, 23% of voters are still "undecided/someone else," more than in other Zogby surveys, which suggests a lot of Georgia Democrats might be willing to go for John Edwards.
• In New York, meanwhile, McCain is not looking back. He is ahead 49% to 23% against Romney, with Huckabee at 8%.

As an extra bonus, Rasmussen released numbers from a rarely polled state that has a significant number of delegates, Arizona. And the numbers are tight in both parties, surprisingly so given that this is McCain's home state:

• He is leading 43% to 34% in this winner-take-all contest. Arizona is a closed primary, suggesting that the state's conservative voters are not enthusiastic about their Senator.
• In the Democratic race, Clinton is ahead 46% to 41%.

The race to the finish will be fascinating to watch.

Update, in answer to comments: (1) As I said, the early-vote results cannot be not be included in these polls even though it is not made explicit. It would make no sense for the pollsters to ignore it, and it's not like it's hard to include voters who have already voted. Whether Clinton actually has an advantage because of this, as one comment pointed out, can be debated. Were the people who voted Clinton early voters who would have backed her anyway? Or might some of them have changed their mind?
(2) It is silly to accuse me Obama-bias because I point out that he is rising in polls ... which he is. These surveys show Obama gaining on Clinton. In states like Missouri and California, he was down by more than 15% a week ago so his come back is undeniably impressive. Today, all polls show him tied in such battlegrounds. There is no question Obama has surged, but there is also no question that he has not surged enough to take a lead in any of these state but Georgia. As I have said repeatedly, Clinton has not sank because she started off strong enough that her decline of support has resulted in a tie. And I certainly believe (as I said) that both candidates could sweep the close state by just a 1-2% uptick in their national standing.
So everyone stay chill. Polls are polls and there is so much flux in the race right now (Edwards's withdrawal, debate) that very little will be surprising come Tuesday.

A few more polls in tight races, as Obama and Clinton are likely to split delegates

We got a few more polls in the past few hours -- including one from Delaware, a state that hasn't been polled in ages:

• ARG shows the race here is in a statistical tie, with Clinton up 44% to 42%. This is a surprise, as the conventional wisdom holds the Northern Atlantic states to be strongly Clinton.
  
• Among Republicans, McCain is barely ahead of Romney, 41% to 35%. You might remember that Delaware was supposed to be one of Giuliani's four "momentum-proof" states (along with CT, NY and NJ) but that does not seem to be helping McCain jump to the sort of lead he has in the Tri-State area.
  

It looks like Delaware will be yet another state in which Obama and Clinton will split delegates rather equally, though the state's coastal position means that Obama could spin a win here as an upset. And ARG also shows a tight race in Missouri:

• Obama has taken the lead from Clinton, leading by a tight 44% to 42%. This contradicts this morning's Rasmussen poll but SUSA's survey released yesterday also had a toss-up with Clinton up 48% to 44%.
• The race is also very tight among Republicans, with Huckabee leading 31% to 29% for McCain and 27% for Romney.

Missouri is a state in which Edwards's withdrawal freed up a significant number of voters, as the former North Carolina Senator was strong in the Midwest. And it seems that most of that support has migrated to Obama. Missouri will be one of the most crucial states to watch for on Tuesday night... But whoever comes out on top is unlikely to get any kind of delegate advantage.

Meanwhile, Clinton got some good news of her own in two new New York polls that have her leading comfortable. Obama's rise in the Empire State was starting to get embarrassing for the state's Senator:

• Rasmussen shows Clinton is ahead 52% to 34% in her home state.
• Among Republicans, McCain is set to take all of the state's delegates, as he leads Romney 49% to 30%.

• Marist has a very similar result, with Clinton ahead 54% to 38%, the same margin to a month ago when Clinton was up 48% to 31%.
• Among Republicans, McCain is ahead by a massive 62% versus Romney 24%.
  

Rasmussen has Obama winning the black vote by 40% in New York, and that should allow him to pick up a significant number of delegates. Not only will it be very useful in getting a proportion of the statewide delegates, but Obama could fare very well in some districts -- especially in New York City -- that are predominantly African-American. Obama is also targeting Manhattan's Upper East Side, hoping to get Clinton into a draw there or even get an extra delegate based on Obama's advantage among upper-scale voters.

The Marist also has some very important internals. 76% of Obama's supporters are now "strong supporters" versus 58% a month ago. Clinton's percentage has held steady at 79%. There has been a very key process of solidification of Obama's support over the past month. If Obama had lost Iowa, his weaker supporters would have quickly abandoned him, pointing to the importance of his early win. Marist also has Clinton's New York City lead at a small 10%, 52% to 42%. That confirms that Obama will probably be able to tie her delegate number in many districts within the city.

Meanwhile, still no California polls... I'd be very grateful if someone could explain why we got multiple Illinois and New York surveys over the past 48 hours but nothing from California.

New series of polls has Obama gaining ground in key Super Tuesday battlegrounds

So much for my complaint this morning that there weren't enough Super Tuesday polls. A series of surveys released early this afternoon (2 from Connecticut, 2 from New Jersey, 1 from New York, Illinois and Alabama) have Obama gaining ground in some key battlegrounds. He is clearly moving upwards, the question now being whether he will have time to rise a few more points to upset Clinton across the board come Tuesday. Now imagine how suspenseful this week would have been if Romney had won in Florida three days ago, as both races would then be tight heading into Tuesday.

Overall, all these polls paint a very divided Democratic electorate, with both candidates consistent in what groups they are strongest in. Keep an eye on the stunning gender gap in particular, that is often close to 30 to 40%. Obama gets men, Clinton gets women. Most polls also have Clinton up among whites and Obama among blacks, with Clinton holding firm among Latinos.

First, Gallup's national tacking poll that has the race tightening for the 9th straight day. Now, Clinton's lead is down to 3%, 44% to 41%. Among Republicans, McCain is ahead 39% to 24% against Romney and 17% to Huckabee. Fox News also has a national poll out and it shows a bit better news for Clinton, who is still leading 47% to 37%. The national polls are obviously very instructive at this point, since February 5th is as close to a national primary day as the US has ever seen.

And with that we got an impressive series of state polls. First up, Alabama and a new SUSA poll:

• Among Democrats, Clinton and Obama are tied at 47%. Clinton has a massive lead among white voters (65% to 28%) and Obama among blacks (72% to 23%).
• Among Republicans, McCain is ahead with 40% to Hucakbee's 31% and Romney's 21%.

Alabama should be one of the most fascinating states to watch on Tuesday night. Edwards's withdrawal means that the white vote will not divide itself between Clinton and Obama and the racial polarization of the Southern states will greatly help Clinton here. The proportion of black voters in Alabama is inferior to that of Georgia and South Carolina so that Clinton now has a chance of pulling out a victory here. Among Republicans, the few Southern states that are voting on Tuesday are must-wins for Huckabee, so these numbers are bad news for him.

Next, we move to the Tri-State area where Obama is climbing fast. First, New Jersey from which we get two polls today:

• GQR has Obama closing the gap, now only behind 44% to 38%. Edwards supporters are moving to Barack, explaining his rise.


• SUSA has better news for Clinton who is still ahead 51% to 39%. That is due to a massive edge among women, whom she leads 60% to 31%; Obama is ahead 50% to 40% among men, creating a 39% gender gap!
• Among Republicans, McCain is up 48% to 25% for Romney and 9% for Huckabee.

Let's move next door to New York, where Clinton's lead is not as big as it once was:

• SUSA has Clinton ahead 54% to 38%. 3 weeks ago, Obama was trailing 56% to 29% and while he is far from victory that bump means many many extra delegates.
• Among the GOP, McCain is ahead 55% to 21% against Mitt Romney, seemingly benefiting from the support of former Rudy backers.

And that gets us to the tightest race of the region, Connecticut, where two polls paint two very different pictures:

• SUSA came out with a truly shocking poll that shows Obama ahead 48% to 44% amidst a 30% gender gap. This poll conforms to a Rasmussen survey from a few days ago that had the pair tied at 40%.
• Among Republicans, SUSA shows an unshakable McCain, up 53% to 31% on Romney.


• ARG is more generous to Clinton, showing her ahead 48% to 35%. It agrees in McCain's lead, 43% to 25%. ARG's track-record over the past month is not particularly successful, so keep that in mind.

These numbers are very significant. On the GOP side, all three of these states are winner-take-all. Formerly Giuliani strongholds, they are now assured to go for McCain which means that he will get all of the delegates that are awarded in New York, Connecticut and New Jersey, 183 total! That will by itself guarantee that he will come out with a massive advantage over Romney who will be completely shut out.

Among Democrats, the Tri-State area is Clinton's base, her backyard. Any Obama victory in one of those 3 states would generate awful press for Clinton and would bode well for Obama. Furthermore, Clinton was hoping to bury Obama with a delegate lead out of these three states and it looks like that will not happen. New York especially has 281 delegates at stake, and if Obama is keeping it this close statewide it means he will also win some congressional districts and be very close in others, denying Clinton an advantage in delegate out of her home-state.

And that gets us to Obama's home state of Illinois, where a new poll from ARG shows Obama ahead 51% to 40% in his home-state. A Rasmussen poll this morning had him up at 60%, so both of today's ARG polls have Clinton higher than she is in other polls. There is no question that holding the race close here would give Clinton an unexpectedly high number of delegates. McCain is up 48% to 34% in the GOP race.

Finally, the last poll comes to us from one of the tightest battlegrounds we have on Super Tuesday, Missouri. SUSA came out with a poll that has both races very tight.

• Among Democrats, Clinton is up 48% to 44%, in a 40% gender gap (+22 among women, -18 among men). Another gap here is between registered Democrats (who go for Clinton by 11%) and independents (who prefer Obama by 20%).
• Among Republicans, McCain is ahead 34% to Romney's 30% and Huckabee's 28%, though he runs third among self-identified conservatives. This is the only state polled today that does not have McCain up big, for those keeping track of that.

Obama has long placed Missouri at the center of his Super Tuesday strategy, since he wants to make the argument that Clinton is having trouble winning away from the coasts.

February 5th polls: How much will early-voting doom Obama and Romney?

It's easy to forget that Super Tuesday is in 8 days considering tomorrow's GOP primary could be more decisive than anything that can happen in a week. But it is time to look ahead at February 5th states, in particular California. Keep in mind that margins and winning areas will be particularly important in California as delegates are allocated according to complicated formulas. That said, Clinton and McCain hold very comfortable leads in all three polls released today:

• SUSA has McCain leading 37% to 25% for Romney, with Huckabee at 14% and Giuliani at 12%. Early-voters make up 30% of voters already and have McCain up by a similar margin.
• Among Democrats, it's Clinton up 49% to Obama's 38%. Early-voters make up 23% of the vote and 56% back Clinton.
  


• The LA Times poll has comparable numbers, with McCain leading 39% to 26% against Romney and Clinton up 49% to 32% against Obama, mostly because of her 2:1 lead among women. That's some big movement on the GOP side from two weeks ago where McCain got 20% and all four major candidates were within 4%. The Democratic side is stable. Most of the poll was conducted prior to South Carolina and Kennedy's endorsement, so it does not register any bounce Obama might have gotten out of this week-end.
  


• Finally, Gallup also looked at California and has McCain up 35% to 27% for Romney among registered voters and 36% to 31% among likely voters. Among Democrats, Clinton is up 47% to 35% among registered voters and 51% to 33% among likely voters. Gallup also tells us that 20% of the electorate has already voted and locked-in their preferences.

These patters of early-voting will be duplicated across the country in all states that allow for extensive absentee and early-voting programs. And they are likely to cause dramatic headaches for the Romney and Obama campaigns. Voters in states like California started voting weeks ago and about a quarter have already locked in their choice in weeks during which Clinton was way ahead and Romney was not really visible (given that he never really ran a visible national campaign and stayed low in the polls outside of IA, NH and SC until his Michigan win). That means that Romney and Obama will not only have to catch up to McCain and Clinton in the coming 8 days but make up the deficit of early-voting by having a healthy lead among those who vote on Election Day. And the difficulty of this exercise should give new ammunition to those who denounce early-voting for making the last weeks much less relevant even though most of the campaign happens then.

Turning to two other February 5th states, it is obvious that McCain and Clinton are going in with an advantage, and that Romney really needs a win tomorrow to stop McCain's march towards the nomination. In New York, first of all:

• Gallup shows that Giuliani has completely collapsed and trails McCain widely. The AZ Senator is up 40% to 21% to Giuliani among likely voters, while Romney is at 17%. But more than half of Republican voters say they might still change their mind, underscoring how important last minute decisions often are.
  
• Among Democrats, Clinton is crushing Obama 56% to 28% in her home-state, with Edwards at 11%.

And in Oklahoma, a SUSA poll:

• McCain is ahead with 37% followed by Huckabee at 28% and Romney at 19%. Giuliani gets 6%, tied with Paul. 42% of the electorate says they might still change their mind.
• Among Democrats, Clinton leads 44% to 27% against Edwards (who was a very very close second in 2004) with Obama at 19%.

With winner-take-all states like New York and New Jersey looking strong for McCain, Romney will have to find places to compete next week. California looks like it could be promising but that early-voting deficit will be hard to overcome. But in most of these states it is probable that the campaign hasn't fully engaged yet. And Romney should have an opening in places like this if he wins tomorrow. 65% of the electorate describes itself as conservative, and Romney has to blast his anti-McCain message out non-stop for a week in places he wants to be competitive. His recognition deficit has not yet been overcome, but he has the money to fight that.

Similarly, much of Obama's deficits in states like California and Oklahoma are only the reflection of his trailing nationally, thus among voters who don't fully pay attention or go for the better-known Clinton. But Obama's problem is naturally that Super Tuesday is national and Obama better hope that developments like Kennedy's endorsement give him a big enough national megaphone.

Morning polls: Romney leads in Florida (!), McCain leads in New York and Connecticut

When I see polls from states like New York or Connecticut, my first instinct is to dismiss them as completely irrelevant. After all, the deluge of primary polls from late-voting states throughout the fall taught us nothing useful about the state of the campaign. But it's hard to believe that New York surveys now are crucially important. We are two weeks from Super Tuesday and the dynamics of the race are getting set.

With that, we got a series of polls from states that are coming up in the next two weeks, starting with a stunning Rasmussen poll of Florida:

• Romney is ahead 25% to McCain's 20%, with Giuliani at 19% and Mike Huckabee at 13%, statistically tied with Thompson's 12%.

Don't forget that Florida is a closed primary, the first of any voting state where independents can't vote. That makes McCain's path to victory that much more complicated -- though it is still surprising to see Romney surging to a lead in the first post-South Carolina/Nevada poll.

A Romney win in Florida would scramble the field yet again a week from Super Tuesday -- and looking at the following polls from major February 5th states, it looks like McCain could roll to the nomination if he manages to win Florida, so his rivals better stop him here. A new poll from Connecticut, first was released today from the Univ. of CT:

• Among Republicans, McCain has a massive lead, 39% to 16% for Giuliani. Romney gets 11%, Huckabee 8%.
• Among Democrats, Clinton gets 41%, Obama 27% and Edwards 9%.

Even worse for Rudy Giuliani are these two polls from New York, his home-state:

• A Siena poll has McCain leading Giuliani 36% to 24%, with Romney at 10%.
• Among Dems, Clinton is holding on strong, 48% to 23%.

• Second, Marist released its own poll from NY that has McCain at 34%, ahead of Romney and Giuliani tied at 19%. Huckabee gets 15%. Giuliani is not even leading in New York City.
• Among Dems, Clinton leads 48% to 32%.

Needless to say that these numbers are atrocious for Giuliani. Remember that his campaign's argument was that Connecticut, New York and New Jersey were momentum-proof states that would give him assured victories -- and a delegate lead. For remember that all three are winner-take-all, so even if Rudy loses by one vote he gets no delegate at all. And it looks like a loss in Florida would definitely cause him to fall out at this point. Giuliani's fate is a clear warning sign to whoever wants to attempt to skip the first 4 voting states in the future. The front-runner in national polls three weeks ago, Giuliani now comes fourth or fifth regularly, having completely fallen out of the picture.

The Siena poll also has some general election numbers for the state of New York -- and they show that McCain could actually pick-up the state in the right circumstances:

• Clinton and Obama crush Rudy (56% to 34% and 53% to 35%). Clinton also handily beats McCain (52% to 39%) but McCain manages a statistical tie with Obama (44% to 42%).

That's right, the Empire State could perhaps be a battleground and McCain's superior electability conforms most indications we have been getting recently, including yesterday's SUSA surveys from VA and KS.

Giuliani loses his lead in... New York and is increasingly marginalized

I started writing the obituary of Giuliani's late-state strategy months ago, but still allowed that the campaign could possibly be on to something. In particular, their very carefully layed out plan of delegate allocation made some sense: In essence, Rudy argued that NY, NJ and CT are "momentum-proof" states for him that are all winner-take-all and that are sure to put him near the lead of delegates come the morning of February 6th.

For the past few months, Giuliani has been falling in polls just about everywhere, in particular in Florida where the latest poll has him in fourth place. But the latest poll released from SUSA shows that Giuliani has lost his lead in... New York!

• Giuliani gets 32% to McCain's 29%. Huckabee is far behind at 12% with Romney at 7%, and Thompson at 6%. Giuliani only leads by 11% in New York City.

That's right, three weeks out of the primary before the biggest bulk of the momentum of early victors hits the state, Giuliani's supposedly "momentum-proof" has already melted. And this is before Giuliani gets two more poor showings next week in South Carolina and Michigan. Presumably, a Giuliani victory in Florida could push things towards him again -- but how will Rudy get his lead back there when he has been out of the public eye for weeks now?

That is surely the biggest problem Rudy is facing right now: By abandoning the first five voting-states and concentrating on Florida, Giuliani has not only resigned himself to letting other candidates pick up momentum, but he has also fallen out of media coverage and out of the race's storyline. No one has been really covering Giuliani for weeks now, and his speech on the eve of Iowa was not even televized. The debates are further evidence of Giuliani's marginalization, as no one is really paying attention to him and he is finding himself in the periphery of the conversation.

McCain: This poll clearly suggests just how far McCain is shooting right now nationally, even in states where he has done no campaigning whatsoever. The buzz is favoring him, and Huckabee has to implement a strong Southern strategy to upset McCain's strength in states like New York and California.

Romney: The runner-up in both IA and NH, Romney is also fighting for one of the first two spots in Michigan and South Carolina and will probably get a good score in South Carolina as well. But it is easy to forget, looking at all those results, that once Romeny gets out of his comfort zone of January states where he has campaigned extensively and ran tons of ads, he is a little-known former governor with little chance of breaking double-digits. That is why winning Iowa or New Hampshire was so important to Romney's chances; he needed it to raise his profile and get some buzz going in states like New York... And if he does not get a win next week in Michigan where his dad was governor or Nevada where he has built a solid organization, we won't hear much from Romney once February comes around.

Presidential Diary: Endorsement fest continues in Iowa

Dave Loebsack, the last Democratic representative from Iowa who had yet to endorse in the presidential race, announces today that he is backing Barack Obama. This means that the three Democratic reps have endorsed three different candidates (Leonard Boswell going for Hillary yesterday and Bruce Braley supporting Edwards about two weeks ago). What a better symbol to illustrate that Iowa is a complete toss-up?

Meanwhile, conservative Rep. Steve King who represents a very Republican part of the state announced he was getting behind Fred Thompson. King is particularly obsessed by immigration issues, and he has expressed concerns about Huckabee's position on those issues. To the extent that Thompson is mounting a solid negative attack against Huckabee for his immigration views currently, this news could play into that storyline; it could also generate some positive buzz who needs to take back some of the electors who have moved from him to Huckabee. But ultimately there is 3 weeks to Iowa and news like this won't change much on the ground.

The good news: Pretty much all Iowa figures who are looking to endorse have done so at this point, so we hopefully won't get too many more of these to report. Senator Harkin would definitely be a worthwhile get for Democrats but he is unlikely to come out after his experience last year (he got behind Dean to great fanfare in the closing weeks); and his wife is now supporting Hillary, which is probably an indication of where Harkin would lean if he could.

• Giuliani plunging in New York

Meanwhile, news is not good in Rudy Giuliani in his home state according to a new Quinnipiac poll:

• In a general election match-up, Giuliani is crushed 53% to 32%.
  
• In the primary, Giuliani only gets 35% to Huckabee's 12% and McCain's 11%. In October, Giuliani got 45% and Huckabee only 1%.

Two of Giuliani's central arguments are here undermined: (1) He likes to claim that he would make the coastal states competitive in the general election, though he is clearly not making that happen here. To be fair, polls from Connecticut and New Jersey show him running much stronger, but New York is his home-state, after all.

(2) Much more importantly, the GOP primary numbers are atrocious for Giuliani. Remember, Giuliani's delegate-centered strategy rests on the certainty that NJ, CT and NY are momentum-proof states for him, and that he will win there no matter what happens in January. These 3 states are delegate rich and winner-take-all, which could make Rudy the leader in delegates on February 5th. But the Quinnipiac poll suggests that even NY is far from momentum-proof. If Giuliani only musters 35% today, what could it be on February 5th after probable losses in IA, NH, MI and SC... And Huckabee multiplying his total by 12 shows that New York is just as momentum-driven than any other state. So if Giuliani can't even hold on here, imagine what it will be in New Jersey and Connecticut.