Super Tuesday guidelines: What to watch for tonight

My analysis of the Democratic and Republican delegate allocations will serve as my detailed preview of Super Tuesday, but here is a quick overview of what to look for tonight, and what states will be most important in determining tomorrow morning's headlines:

California, for both parties: Few people expected the Romney come back in California, but the primary here is closed and conservatives have rallied around Romney over the past week, giving him an opening to win the Golden State. Unfortunately for Romney, a win would not necessarily mean a delegate lead, since every district attributes 3 delegates (winner-take-all), whether they are a heavily conservative districts with hundreds of thousands of GOP voters or a liberal San Fransisco area with only a few thousands voters in a Republican primary. Ultimately, California will matter as a symbol in the GOP race. It will be much easier for Romney to justify continuing the race if he wins the country's biggest state.

Among Democrats, California will be essential to determining the storyline, though here also delegates are likely to be mostly split. An Obama victory would be the dramatic exclamation point to the candidate's surge over the past week, and give us a measure of his momentum going forward. If Clinton holds on to the state, it will allow her campaign to make the argument that Obama's momentum is being overstated, just as in New Hampshire. Polls have shown big leads for both candidates, so there is an expectation that Obama could do well today; that means -- however unfair that is -- that even a narrow Clinton win would be presented as a great victory for the New York Senator, just as in New Hampshire.

Illinois and New York, Democrats: Obama and Clinton will (almost) no doubt win their home states, but their margin of victory will determine just how big a lead of delegate they get. Will Clinton cross 15% in the Chicago districts? Will she cross 30% in most districts, allowing her to force a delegate split in the even-delegate districts? Will Obama do the same in upstate New York districts that award even number of delegates? (More information about this delegate distribution here.) Will he win some districts in New York City that he has targeted?

Missouri, both parties: This is a must-win state for Mitt Romney, perhaps even the must-win state. 58 delegates are at stake in the only winner-take-all primary that is a toss-up, and Romney needs those delegates to stay close in the final delegate count. Even with a California victory, it will make very little sense for Romney to continue if McCain has amassed a big delegate lead and is approaching a majority.

For Democrats, the race has been equally close and Obama really wants to win here to be able to make the argument that Clinton cannot win in purple states and away from the coasts and argue that he is the best placed to win over swing voters in the general election. For Clinton, a victory here would allow her to counter the storyline of Obama's surge -- just as in California.

Georgia, Republicans: The Democratic race is not very suspenseful here, and expect it to be called early (it is the only state where polls close at 7pm). But this is one of the most important states in the GOP contest. Not only do polls show a complete three-way toss-up between Huckabee, McCain and Romney, but the winner gets 33 at-large winner-take-all delegates (there also are districts allocated by district). As I already said, Romney needs to keep himself close to McCain in the delegate count and he needs Missouri and Georgia in his column to do so.

Connecticut and New Jersey, Democrats: In Clinton's backyard, these two states were long considered strongholds for the New York Senator. But recent polls have shown a tight race, especially in Connecticut. A loss in either of these states, while not dramatic delegate wise (especially in CT), would be very embarrassing for Clinton. The results here are also likely to come early in the morning and thus shape coverage more than results in states that report later.

Massachusetts, Democrats: Clinton was long massively ahead but Ted Kennedy (and, to a lesser degree, John Kerry)'s endorsement have given a tremendous boost to Obama's organization. Polls since then have been very contradictory, ranging from a narrow Obama edge to a large Clinton lead. This is another state whose results could be known early and that could prove embarrassing to the NY Senator.

Alabama, both parties: Huckabee is hoping to complete a Southern surge that started to register in the polls in the past few days and take Alabama from McCai; he is also hoping for a strong showing in Tennessee. Romney seems out of the game in both of these states but needs Huckabee to poll well to deprive McCain of some nominees and stay close to him in the delegate count.

Among Democrats, Alabama is shaping as the only close Southern primary, especially since Edwards's withdrawal threw white voters in Clinton's camp. Polls show a complete toss-up here, and a victory here could give the winner's campaign one more thing to boast about tomorrow morning. After all, with Obama and Clinton likely to split delegates, it will all come down to a battle of symbols.

There obviously are a lot of other storylines (especially in the Democratic race, where every state will feature a major delegate fight, even places that a candidate is expected to win solidly). So to help us through the night, here is a quick assesment of where things stand (the "Lean X" lists are organized from the safest to the less safe states). First, for Democrats:

Leaning Clinton: New York, Arkansas, Tennessee, Oklahoma

Leaning Obama: Georgia, Colorado, Utah, Idaho, North Dakota

Toss-up: California, Alabama, Missouri, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Kansas, Arizona, New Mexico

And for Republicans:

Lean McCain: New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Arizona, Illinois, Oklahoma

Lean Romney: Utah, Massachusetts, the caucus states (despite little evidence of what is going on): Colorado, North Dakota, Alaska, Minnesota, Montana

Lean Huckabee West Virginia (already won!), Arkansas

Toss-up: California, Tennessee, Georgia, Missouri, Delaware, Alabama

Poll roller coaster continues, with SUSA showing Clinton holding firm with 12 hours to go

Whatever the results tomorrow, there will be a group of pollsters that will come out the clear losers of the run-up to Super Tuesday. On the one side we have groups like Zogby and Rasmussen which show Obama with higher-than-average results, on the other are Mason-Dixon, ARG and SUSA which are much much more reassuring to Clinton's chances. Depending on which institute has released the latest wave of polls, Clinton and Obama supporters are trading optimism for depression and vice-versa.

What can these discrepancies be attributed to? It is important to note that each institute is consistent in showing an Obama uptick or a Clinton uptick: Zogby has great Obama results in California but also in Missouri and New Jersey; and Mason-Dixon and SUSA have Clinton up higher than expected in most of their polls as well. This suggests that pollsters are using widely differing turnout models -- not only with the composition of the electorate but how many new voters show up and who these new voters are. Don't necessarily assume that new voters favor one candidate or the other, as both Iowa and New Hampshire Democrats voted in record numbers... to differing results. At this point there is no way of knowing which pollster we should trust, and we will have to wait for the results to come in tomorrow.

Meanwhile, here are the latest trends, mostly based on SUSA's massive release of polls. First up, of course, is the big prize of California, the state for which we could stay up very late tomorrow night:

• SUSA has Clinton up 53% to 41% in a week-end poll, which is a slight improvement for the NY Senator who led 49% to 38% last week. The key finding of the poll is that 34% of voters have already voted, and Clinton leads by 12% among those as well. The second crucial internal from the poll is that Latinos (27% of the electorate here) are giving 71% of their vote to Clinton.
• The Republican numbers are in line with other numbers and have a toss-up between McCain at 39% and Romney at 36%. A week ago, McCain had 36% and Romney had 25%, so this is a significant progression for Romney. Among those who have already voted (35%), Romney is down 5%.

I have long emphasized that early-voting was a big hurdle that Obama and Romney would have to overcome. And while there is no question that many of the people who voted Clinton early would have voted Hillary anyway, there is little doubt that some voters who are now locked in could have been susceptible to this late Obama momentum.

Next, we get three polls from Clinton and Obama's home states:

• In New York, SUSA shows Clinton staying ahead 56% to 38%, a bigger margin than in some other polls we have seen. Clinton really needs to get a massive delegate lead here to offset possible losses elsewhere. Worth noting is that Obama wins the male vote, in what is a 44% gender gap!
• In PPP's survey, Clinton has a similar lead, 51% to 32%.
• The GOP numbers have McCain up 56% to 23% in SUSA and 49% to 24% in PPP.


• In Illinois, it's Obama that is widely ahead in the SUSA poll 66% to 30%. Clinton only gets 17% of the white vote.
• Among Republicans, McCain does not tremble, 46% to 25% for Romney and 17% for Huck.

The Democratic numbers in these states are actually very important, as Illinois and New York will attribute a large numbers of delegates and both candidates want to get a lead in their home states to offset potential losses elsewhere. In New York, Clinton has a robust lead in all regions of the state, but Obama is also coming in consistently above 30% which should allow him to split delegates equally in all districts that allocate an even number of delegates! Clinton's Illinois position is a bit more precarious, as she is weak enough overall that she could let Obama get two extra delegates in even districts. And don't be surprised if Clinton gets shut out in some districts of Chicago.

Completing the Northeast picture, SUSA releases final numbers from New Jersey, Connecticut and Massachusetts. Polls from all three have shown tight races in the past week but SUSA partly disagrees:

• In New Jersey, SUSA gives Clinton a reassuring 52% to 41% lead, in line with another poll released this morning that showed Clinton holding firm in the Garden State. The gender gap is 42%.
• In Massachusetts, SUSA has Clinton surviving 56% to 39% thanks to a 62% gender gap!! SUSA does show a 7% Obama progression in a week.
• In Connecticut, however, it's Obama, 48% to 46% (he led 48% to 44% a few days ago) in a race with a small gender gap, small age gap and small geographical differences.
  


• All those states show no suspense in the GOP race, and only MA is not winner-take-all and so the margin has to be watched. In NJ, it's McCain 54-25; in Connecticut, 52-30. And in Massachusetts, Romney is up 58-30.

In many ways, Clinton would rather lose Massachusetts than Connecticut. Losing the former could be attributed to Kennedy's influence, while Connecticut is in Clinton's own backyard. And with that we move to Missouri, a swing state in both parties in which SUSA once again is kind to the New York Senator:

• Clinton is up 54% to 43%, a noticeable progression since SUSA's poll released earlier this week in what SUSA calls "Last Minute Momentum to Clinton." It had been a while Hillary's camp hadn't read those words.
• The GOP 's Missouri primary might be the single most important contest in the Republican race, as the winner will get all of the state's 58 delegates. And as in many other polls, SUSA has it too close to call, with McCain at 33%, Huckabee 31% and Romney 28%.

Both Obama and Romney really want to win this state. A Clinton victory here would allow her to show she has appeal in the Midwest and that she can attract voters in a purple state that has been leaning red. And a McCain win would virtually leave Romney no path towards keeping the delegate count close.

And with that we move South, to Georgia and Alabama which are holding very tight contests as well. In Alabama, it is the Democratic race which is key now that Edwards's withdrawal has opened up a path for Clinton to win if the electorate in the South stays as racially polarized as in SC. We got three polls from AL:

• SUSA shows Obama up 49% to 47%, CPR has Clinton up 48% to 44% and Insider Advantage shows a toss-up, with Obama at 45% and Clinton at 44%.
• Among Republicans, AL has long been a McCain-Huckabee contest. SUSA has McCain stumbling a bit in the past few days and now up 37% to 35%, CPR has it at 36-30.


• In Georgia, PPP confirms Obama's lead 53% to 37%, but it is the GOP race that is more important in this state. PPP pits it at 31-29-27 (McCain-Romney-Huckabee), with Insider Advantage at 32 McCain-31 Romney-26 Huckabee.


• The latest updates from Tennessee and Oklahoma (PPP and SUSA) respectively confirm that Clinton has a wide lead there (56-34 and 54-27) but the GOP race is closer (34-28 for McCain-Huck in TN and 37-32 between them in Oklahoma).

As always, these numbers tell us first and foremost that the delegate count will probably stay close in the Dem race. And odds are that, if one candidate emerges with a significant delegate lead, it will be because of the margins in New York and Illinois rather than because of who won Missouri, California and Connecticut by a point of two.

• General election poll
  

A quick note about RAsmussen's latest general election numbers which are as over the place as the primary polls: McCain leads Clinton 47% to 39% but ties Obama at 44%. But the electability is reversed in Romney's matchups, as Clinton crushes him 50% to 37% and Obama is much closer, 44% to 41%. Rasmussen had only released Clinton-McCain and Romney-Obama yesterday and the rest today, so it appears that those two match-ups were tested in one sample, and that Clinton-Romney and McCain-Obama were tested in another. Simple sample differences would then explain why the first two are much more favorable to Democrats than the last two. I don't know, however, why such a sample split would be a good idea.

Holding firm among women, Clinton keeps her Massachusetts and New Jersey leads

We are only 4 days from Super Tuesday, but the small numbers of polls that is being released is stunning. We have gotten one poll from California and one from New York in days, and nothing for a couple of weeks from key battlegrounds like Missouri and Minnesota. Compare this with the situation just like week in Florida. As a result, it is difficult to measure the extent of Obama's upward movement and to have any idea of what is going to happen in most of Tuesday's states. With that, here are the few surveys that were released since last night:

• Rasmussen polled New Jersey and finds that Clinton is ahead by double-digits, 49% to 37%. The poll was conducted on Wednesday, and it marks a significant improvement for Barack who trailed 45% to 27% two weeks ago.

Edwards is not included in this poll, and his supporters appear to have moved disproportionately to Obama, giving him the highest total he has ever gotten in a New Jersey poll. That could be key come Tuesday because Obama would be able to get a significant number of delegates if he stays close to his rival. Obama's continuing weakness is the female vote, which Clinton is winning by 24%. Obama is actually ahead among males by 5%, a rather massive gender gap. Clinton has been safe for months now because of her advantage among women, and Obama has not been able to break that code just yet.

• Among Republicans, John McCain is ahead 43% to 29% with Huckabee at 7%. Giuliani was not included in the poll and McCain is heading to victory in a winner-take-all state.

As we have pointed out many times before, McCain's strongholds are winner-take-all (Arizona, Connecticut, New York, New Jersey), which is going to shut Romney out of delegates in some massive states. By contrast, Romney's home-state of Massachusetts is one of the only state that allocates delegates proportionally, which is obviously awful news for Romney. We got two polls today to confirm that Romney has a large lead in MA:

• Rasmussen attributes 55% to Romney and 23% to McCain, followed by Huckabee at 8%.
• SUSA shows Romney with 57% to McCain's 34%.


• The Democratic race is much more interesting in MA now that Kennedy (and Kerry) have endorsed Obama. A Rasmussen survey a few days ago gave Clinton a 6% lead, but SUSA is much more reassuring, pitting the race at 57% for Clinton and 33% for Obama. That is still a significant improvement for Barack, who trailed 59% to 22% just a week ago.

If Obama is picking up 13% a week throughout the country, that could put him over the top in places where he started closer to Clinton. But here again, Obama will have to find a way to challenge Clinton among the female vote. He is being crushed 65% to 26% among women in this poll; compare that to males where he is tied at 44%, up from 48% to 25% last week. If Obama's momentum is limited to male voters until Tuesday, he could get close to Clinton but will have a hard time coming out on top.

Finally, Rasmussen also released a poll from Illinois, Obama's home-state. It has Obama leading 60% to 24%. The survey was conducted on Tuesday, so it still has Edwards at 11%. This is great news for Obama, who is winning Illinois by a far larger margin than Clinton is winning New York and that could prevent Clinton from getting a lot of delegates in Illinois and could allow Obama to create some margin between the two nationally.

Update: I obviously deleted the comment from an Obama supporter that was filled with a stunning list of profanities, words to which many of the comments in this thread are responding. I know the Obama-Clinton contest is coming down to the wire and that supporters of both candidates are very tense and eager to defend their choice, but that's no reason to resort to such language or that much hatred.

The ground is shifting in Obama's favor, but does he have enough time?

With 6 days to go to Super Tuesday and with the GOP having gone a long way towards settling on a nominee last night, all eyes are now on the Democratic primary where the stakes of the next few days are much higher. Hillary Clinton is seeking to halt the seemingly unending stream of good news for Obama (South Carolina triumph, Kennedy endorsement) by putting forward her Florida win. And the campaign must be happy with the controversy over whether Obama snubbed on the floor of the Senate. Images of that "incident" are now being widely covered by the media, and every news cycle Clinton can own this week could make the difference come Super Tuesday.

The poll numbers indicate that the ground is shifting in Obama's favor and that he is getting closer to his rival. But with 6 days to go and the campaign now national, does Obama have enough time to make his case in the states he needs to do well in come Tuesday, for example in California? That is the huge question we are facing right now. And unfortunately for those of us who are accustomed to relying on polls to get some idea of where an election is heading, it will be very difficult to assess the state of the race in the next week. For one, most polls that are being released yesterday and today were taken late this week-end or on Monday, in other words in the immediate aftermath both of Obama's South Carolina victory and of Ted Kennedy's endorsement. Is that a lasting bounce like the one McCain got out of New Hampshire and South Carolina? Or will it subside in a few days like the one Obama got post-Iowa? It will be very difficult to assess this for a few more days.

Second, John Edwards's withdrawal dramatically alters the race, freeing 10% to 15% of the electorate who will have to choose a second choice. While some will probably stick with Edwards, this could significantly change the dynamnics between Obama and Clinton, and we will not have much indication of where the Edwards vote is going for a couple of days. And third, there is a debate tomorrow night that will probably be watched closely by many Super Tuesday voters, and its impact will likely be decisive. Don't forget that we have already had a couple of game-changing debates, whether October's Philadelphia debate that was the start of Clinton's troubles, the New Hampshire debate on January 5th that caused the female vote to rally around Hillary or the South Carolina debate of last week in which the image of Obama being tag-teamed by two white candidates could have a lot to do with what we saw on Saturday night.

With those words of caution, let's launch into today's polls as nearly all states are tightening right now in what is shaping up to be a fascinating run-up to Super Tuesday. First, Gallup's national poll has some fascinating national numbers in its tracking poll:

• In the latest poll that was in the field from Sunday to Tuesday, Barack Obama has risen to his highest percentage in yet (in the past 3 weeks) and is trailing Clinton by only 6%, 44% to 38%. Five days ago, it was 47% to 32% Clinton; two days ago, it was 44% to 33%. Yesterday, 44% to 34%. Clinton has been steadily declining for about a week now and this is a very worrying trend because a national lead is essential to her chances on Tuesday in what is essentially a national primary. Edwards gets 12% in the latest poll, double the margin between Obama and Clinton... The next few days could prove very instructive.

With that, let's move on to some state polls including in two states that Clinton should be winning very comfortably.

• In Connecticut, in Clinton's backyard, a Rasmussen poll shows Clinton and Obama tied at 40%. The poll was entirely conducted on Sunday, the day after Obama's SC victory, and it has John Edwards at 11%. Clinton can hardly afford to lose one of the states of the Tri-State Area, so she better pay special attention to Connecticut. No previous poll confirms that this primary is heading towards a toss-up, but it fits with the narrative of Obama's rise.
• Among the Republican winner-take-all primary, McCain is ahead big, 42% to 26% for Romney, as we would expect. Giuliani, still including in the poll, gets 12% in what was supposed to be one of his momentum-proof states.


• Next, we have a PPP poll that has Hillary only up by 12% against Obama, 45% to Obama's 33%, with Edwards at 10%. The numbers are strange given the high number of undecideds, particularly among white voters who break 44-29 for Clinton and black voters who go 44-32 for Obama (a lower proportion than we are used to seeing). Clinton leads 64% to 31% among Hispanics, in what is clearly a key constituency for her. Also keep in mind that Obama coming in relatively close to Clinton in New York could get him a big number of delegates from Clinton's very own home-state.


• And with that we move on to some better news for Clinton, a Tennessee poll that has her leading 43% to Obama's 32% with Edwards at 16%. Tennessee will be a disputed state come Tuesday but this is one contest where Edwards's withdrawal should benefit Clinton. He gets 2% among black voters, among whom Obama leads 60% to 20% but he ties Obama among whites (of which Clinton gets 50%).

• The most worrisome numbers yet come from California, where a tracking poll conducted on behalf of an anti-gambling campaign (which is polling an initiative that is also on the ballot and including primary questions) shows Obama only 5% behind Clinton (36-31) in a period ending on Sunday. On Sunday alone, Obama is up 3%, but the margin of error of such a small sample is obviously gigantic. The point remains that Obama is tightening the race, but Obama supporters should not get carried away yet: (1) SUSA's survey that I reported yesterday is probably more reliable was taken entirely on Sunday and has Clinton up 11%; (2) California is one of those states Obama could have an early-voting problem, as about a quarter of the electorate has probably already voted and gone for Clinton big. Can Obama really make up for it?
  

Finally, let's close this poll post with a reminder of why many Democrats would have much rather seen Romney win Florida than McCain. The latest general election numbers come to us from Rasmussen and they have good news for the GOP:

• John McCain defeats Hillary Clinton 48% to 40% and tops Obama 47% to 41%. That's a reversal from two weeks ago when both Obama and Clinton led McCain, albeit by a small margin.

Keep in mind that McCain has gotten a lot of good press lately with his rivals leaving him unscathed, which accounts for why he appears so strong at the moment. Rasmussen will start a daily tracking poll this week-end pitting McCain against both Democrats, so we will see if McCain's numbers go down a bit as the attention shifts back to the Democratic race.

Update: Add one more state in which Obama is rising fast, and this one is directly due to Kennedy's endorsement. A new Rasmussen poll from Massachusetts has Clinton only leading 43% to 37% in a state in which she used to be much stronger. There is no past Rasmussen poll to compare trendlines.

Catching up on some forgotten polls

With the January 19th craziness behind us, it's time to catch up on a few polls that were forgotten because of the focus on South Carolina and Nevada. And the first of these is a Rasmussen poll of California's GOP primary that was released mid-week (the Democratic numbers have already been blogged):

• McCain is ahead with 24%, followed by Romney's 17%, Huckabe's 13%, Thompson's 13% and Giuliani's 11%.

This is obviously very significant given that California will be the biggest prize on February 5th. Giuliani was long crushing the field here, and his collapse to fifth-place is that much more significant. The trouble for McCain's opponents is that numbers in states like California, Illinois and New York are likely to start reflecting national numbers given how huge those states are, and McCain has an unmistakable advantage there. And a win here would be particularly impressive for the Arizona Senator given that California is a closed primary (just like Florida), and McCain has not been doing that well among registered Republicans for now.

Second, we get a primary poll from Massachusetts by SUSA released on Thursday. MA is voting on February 5th and awards many delegates, particularly on the Democratic side, so these numbers are particularly important.

• On the GOP side, it looks like Romney will manage to hold on to his home-state. He defeats McCain 48% to 34%, with Giuliani at 8%.
• Among Democrats, Clinton crushes the field on the strength of a 42% lead among women (!). She gets 56% to Obama's 23% and Edwards's 14%.

Keep in mind that general election polls in MA have shown Romney much weaker than Giuliani and McCain, leading questions as to whether he would get any home-state effect in the GOP primary here. It would certainly be humiliating for him to lose the state. Second, MA is not generally considered to be in Clinton's home-state region (as NY, NJ and CT are), so she would certainly be able to spin a big victory here as a success and she would get a big delegate advantage if she keeps up this lead. But odds are the numbers will tighten at least to some degree when campaigning picks up.

Second, we have a wave of general elections polls released by SUSA on Friday of three states that went bif for Bush in 2000 and 2004. This time, Virginia and Kansas show more than competitive Democrats, though Alabama is firmly anchored in the Republican camp. But in all three polls, McCain runs about 15% stronger than his Republican rivals, underscoring just how consistently better the new GOP front-runner is polling in general election polls:

• Virginia looks like a very promising state for Democrats, and this poll has Clinton and Obama leading Giuliani (50-44 and 46-45 respectively), Romney (51-43 and 48-44) and Huckabee (50-43 and 49-44).
• And now take a look at McCain's numbers, who crushes Clinton 52% to 43% and Obama 52% to 40%.


• The scenario is the same in Kansas, a state Bush won by a massive 26%! Clinton manages to lead Giuliani 48% to 42% though Obama narrowly trails him 45% to 43%. The same is true against Huckabee (47-46 Clinton and 44-46 Obama), and both Democrats leadagainst Romney.
• But McCain handily defeats both Democrats 53% to 40% against Clinton and 53% to 39% against Obama. Notice that McCain's margins are still half of what Bush won by in 2004, but they have got to be disappointing for Democrats after seeing how weakly the other GOPers run.


• Alabama, another state Bush won by 26%, looks better for Republicans. Giuliani beats both Clinton and Obama (50-42 against Clinton and 55-34 against Obama), so does Romney (52-42 and 56-34) and Huckabee (55-40 and 59-32) But here again McCain manages to run even better: He defeats Clinton 58% to 37% and Obama63% to 29%. Notice also how much better than Obama Clinton is faring in this poll.

Two thoughts here. First, Democrats obviously need none of these states to win the 2008 elections. But if McCain becomes the GOP nominee, the polls that are going to come out from states like VA and KY are suddenly going to look much worse for Democrats than they have grown used to in the past few months, and Republicans will be able to be much less worried about losing red states like this. And while there is no telling whether McCain will prove to be the most electable of candidates down the line, the fact that he runs so much better so consistently says something.

Second, Hillary does run better in all three states than Barack. Keep in mind that this is a dynamic we are very much used to: Clinton almost always polls much better in red states like these and in the South, where she rallies much more of the Democratic base; Obama, on the other hand, tends to do better in other areas, especially out West.