Super Tuesday guidelines: What to watch for tonight

My analysis of the Democratic and Republican delegate allocations will serve as my detailed preview of Super Tuesday, but here is a quick overview of what to look for tonight, and what states will be most important in determining tomorrow morning's headlines:

California, for both parties: Few people expected the Romney come back in California, but the primary here is closed and conservatives have rallied around Romney over the past week, giving him an opening to win the Golden State. Unfortunately for Romney, a win would not necessarily mean a delegate lead, since every district attributes 3 delegates (winner-take-all), whether they are a heavily conservative districts with hundreds of thousands of GOP voters or a liberal San Fransisco area with only a few thousands voters in a Republican primary. Ultimately, California will matter as a symbol in the GOP race. It will be much easier for Romney to justify continuing the race if he wins the country's biggest state.

Among Democrats, California will be essential to determining the storyline, though here also delegates are likely to be mostly split. An Obama victory would be the dramatic exclamation point to the candidate's surge over the past week, and give us a measure of his momentum going forward. If Clinton holds on to the state, it will allow her campaign to make the argument that Obama's momentum is being overstated, just as in New Hampshire. Polls have shown big leads for both candidates, so there is an expectation that Obama could do well today; that means -- however unfair that is -- that even a narrow Clinton win would be presented as a great victory for the New York Senator, just as in New Hampshire.

Illinois and New York, Democrats: Obama and Clinton will (almost) no doubt win their home states, but their margin of victory will determine just how big a lead of delegate they get. Will Clinton cross 15% in the Chicago districts? Will she cross 30% in most districts, allowing her to force a delegate split in the even-delegate districts? Will Obama do the same in upstate New York districts that award even number of delegates? (More information about this delegate distribution here.) Will he win some districts in New York City that he has targeted?

Missouri, both parties: This is a must-win state for Mitt Romney, perhaps even the must-win state. 58 delegates are at stake in the only winner-take-all primary that is a toss-up, and Romney needs those delegates to stay close in the final delegate count. Even with a California victory, it will make very little sense for Romney to continue if McCain has amassed a big delegate lead and is approaching a majority.

For Democrats, the race has been equally close and Obama really wants to win here to be able to make the argument that Clinton cannot win in purple states and away from the coasts and argue that he is the best placed to win over swing voters in the general election. For Clinton, a victory here would allow her to counter the storyline of Obama's surge -- just as in California.

Georgia, Republicans: The Democratic race is not very suspenseful here, and expect it to be called early (it is the only state where polls close at 7pm). But this is one of the most important states in the GOP contest. Not only do polls show a complete three-way toss-up between Huckabee, McCain and Romney, but the winner gets 33 at-large winner-take-all delegates (there also are districts allocated by district). As I already said, Romney needs to keep himself close to McCain in the delegate count and he needs Missouri and Georgia in his column to do so.

Connecticut and New Jersey, Democrats: In Clinton's backyard, these two states were long considered strongholds for the New York Senator. But recent polls have shown a tight race, especially in Connecticut. A loss in either of these states, while not dramatic delegate wise (especially in CT), would be very embarrassing for Clinton. The results here are also likely to come early in the morning and thus shape coverage more than results in states that report later.

Massachusetts, Democrats: Clinton was long massively ahead but Ted Kennedy (and, to a lesser degree, John Kerry)'s endorsement have given a tremendous boost to Obama's organization. Polls since then have been very contradictory, ranging from a narrow Obama edge to a large Clinton lead. This is another state whose results could be known early and that could prove embarrassing to the NY Senator.

Alabama, both parties: Huckabee is hoping to complete a Southern surge that started to register in the polls in the past few days and take Alabama from McCai; he is also hoping for a strong showing in Tennessee. Romney seems out of the game in both of these states but needs Huckabee to poll well to deprive McCain of some nominees and stay close to him in the delegate count.

Among Democrats, Alabama is shaping as the only close Southern primary, especially since Edwards's withdrawal threw white voters in Clinton's camp. Polls show a complete toss-up here, and a victory here could give the winner's campaign one more thing to boast about tomorrow morning. After all, with Obama and Clinton likely to split delegates, it will all come down to a battle of symbols.

There obviously are a lot of other storylines (especially in the Democratic race, where every state will feature a major delegate fight, even places that a candidate is expected to win solidly). So to help us through the night, here is a quick assesment of where things stand (the "Lean X" lists are organized from the safest to the less safe states). First, for Democrats:

Leaning Clinton: New York, Arkansas, Tennessee, Oklahoma

Leaning Obama: Georgia, Colorado, Utah, Idaho, North Dakota

Toss-up: California, Alabama, Missouri, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Kansas, Arizona, New Mexico

And for Republicans:

Lean McCain: New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Arizona, Illinois, Oklahoma

Lean Romney: Utah, Massachusetts, the caucus states (despite little evidence of what is going on): Colorado, North Dakota, Alaska, Minnesota, Montana

Lean Huckabee West Virginia (already won!), Arkansas

Toss-up: California, Tennessee, Georgia, Missouri, Delaware, Alabama

Poll roller coaster continues, with SUSA showing Clinton holding firm with 12 hours to go

Whatever the results tomorrow, there will be a group of pollsters that will come out the clear losers of the run-up to Super Tuesday. On the one side we have groups like Zogby and Rasmussen which show Obama with higher-than-average results, on the other are Mason-Dixon, ARG and SUSA which are much much more reassuring to Clinton's chances. Depending on which institute has released the latest wave of polls, Clinton and Obama supporters are trading optimism for depression and vice-versa.

What can these discrepancies be attributed to? It is important to note that each institute is consistent in showing an Obama uptick or a Clinton uptick: Zogby has great Obama results in California but also in Missouri and New Jersey; and Mason-Dixon and SUSA have Clinton up higher than expected in most of their polls as well. This suggests that pollsters are using widely differing turnout models -- not only with the composition of the electorate but how many new voters show up and who these new voters are. Don't necessarily assume that new voters favor one candidate or the other, as both Iowa and New Hampshire Democrats voted in record numbers... to differing results. At this point there is no way of knowing which pollster we should trust, and we will have to wait for the results to come in tomorrow.

Meanwhile, here are the latest trends, mostly based on SUSA's massive release of polls. First up, of course, is the big prize of California, the state for which we could stay up very late tomorrow night:

• SUSA has Clinton up 53% to 41% in a week-end poll, which is a slight improvement for the NY Senator who led 49% to 38% last week. The key finding of the poll is that 34% of voters have already voted, and Clinton leads by 12% among those as well. The second crucial internal from the poll is that Latinos (27% of the electorate here) are giving 71% of their vote to Clinton.
• The Republican numbers are in line with other numbers and have a toss-up between McCain at 39% and Romney at 36%. A week ago, McCain had 36% and Romney had 25%, so this is a significant progression for Romney. Among those who have already voted (35%), Romney is down 5%.

I have long emphasized that early-voting was a big hurdle that Obama and Romney would have to overcome. And while there is no question that many of the people who voted Clinton early would have voted Hillary anyway, there is little doubt that some voters who are now locked in could have been susceptible to this late Obama momentum.

Next, we get three polls from Clinton and Obama's home states:

• In New York, SUSA shows Clinton staying ahead 56% to 38%, a bigger margin than in some other polls we have seen. Clinton really needs to get a massive delegate lead here to offset possible losses elsewhere. Worth noting is that Obama wins the male vote, in what is a 44% gender gap!
• In PPP's survey, Clinton has a similar lead, 51% to 32%.
• The GOP numbers have McCain up 56% to 23% in SUSA and 49% to 24% in PPP.


• In Illinois, it's Obama that is widely ahead in the SUSA poll 66% to 30%. Clinton only gets 17% of the white vote.
• Among Republicans, McCain does not tremble, 46% to 25% for Romney and 17% for Huck.

The Democratic numbers in these states are actually very important, as Illinois and New York will attribute a large numbers of delegates and both candidates want to get a lead in their home states to offset potential losses elsewhere. In New York, Clinton has a robust lead in all regions of the state, but Obama is also coming in consistently above 30% which should allow him to split delegates equally in all districts that allocate an even number of delegates! Clinton's Illinois position is a bit more precarious, as she is weak enough overall that she could let Obama get two extra delegates in even districts. And don't be surprised if Clinton gets shut out in some districts of Chicago.

Completing the Northeast picture, SUSA releases final numbers from New Jersey, Connecticut and Massachusetts. Polls from all three have shown tight races in the past week but SUSA partly disagrees:

• In New Jersey, SUSA gives Clinton a reassuring 52% to 41% lead, in line with another poll released this morning that showed Clinton holding firm in the Garden State. The gender gap is 42%.
• In Massachusetts, SUSA has Clinton surviving 56% to 39% thanks to a 62% gender gap!! SUSA does show a 7% Obama progression in a week.
• In Connecticut, however, it's Obama, 48% to 46% (he led 48% to 44% a few days ago) in a race with a small gender gap, small age gap and small geographical differences.
  


• All those states show no suspense in the GOP race, and only MA is not winner-take-all and so the margin has to be watched. In NJ, it's McCain 54-25; in Connecticut, 52-30. And in Massachusetts, Romney is up 58-30.

In many ways, Clinton would rather lose Massachusetts than Connecticut. Losing the former could be attributed to Kennedy's influence, while Connecticut is in Clinton's own backyard. And with that we move to Missouri, a swing state in both parties in which SUSA once again is kind to the New York Senator:

• Clinton is up 54% to 43%, a noticeable progression since SUSA's poll released earlier this week in what SUSA calls "Last Minute Momentum to Clinton." It had been a while Hillary's camp hadn't read those words.
• The GOP 's Missouri primary might be the single most important contest in the Republican race, as the winner will get all of the state's 58 delegates. And as in many other polls, SUSA has it too close to call, with McCain at 33%, Huckabee 31% and Romney 28%.

Both Obama and Romney really want to win this state. A Clinton victory here would allow her to show she has appeal in the Midwest and that she can attract voters in a purple state that has been leaning red. And a McCain win would virtually leave Romney no path towards keeping the delegate count close.

And with that we move South, to Georgia and Alabama which are holding very tight contests as well. In Alabama, it is the Democratic race which is key now that Edwards's withdrawal has opened up a path for Clinton to win if the electorate in the South stays as racially polarized as in SC. We got three polls from AL:

• SUSA shows Obama up 49% to 47%, CPR has Clinton up 48% to 44% and Insider Advantage shows a toss-up, with Obama at 45% and Clinton at 44%.
• Among Republicans, AL has long been a McCain-Huckabee contest. SUSA has McCain stumbling a bit in the past few days and now up 37% to 35%, CPR has it at 36-30.


• In Georgia, PPP confirms Obama's lead 53% to 37%, but it is the GOP race that is more important in this state. PPP pits it at 31-29-27 (McCain-Romney-Huckabee), with Insider Advantage at 32 McCain-31 Romney-26 Huckabee.


• The latest updates from Tennessee and Oklahoma (PPP and SUSA) respectively confirm that Clinton has a wide lead there (56-34 and 54-27) but the GOP race is closer (34-28 for McCain-Huck in TN and 37-32 between them in Oklahoma).

As always, these numbers tell us first and foremost that the delegate count will probably stay close in the Dem race. And odds are that, if one candidate emerges with a significant delegate lead, it will be because of the margins in New York and Illinois rather than because of who won Missouri, California and Connecticut by a point of two.

• General election poll
  

A quick note about RAsmussen's latest general election numbers which are as over the place as the primary polls: McCain leads Clinton 47% to 39% but ties Obama at 44%. But the electability is reversed in Romney's matchups, as Clinton crushes him 50% to 37% and Obama is much closer, 44% to 41%. Rasmussen had only released Clinton-McCain and Romney-Obama yesterday and the rest today, so it appears that those two match-ups were tested in one sample, and that Clinton-Romney and McCain-Obama were tested in another. Simple sample differences would then explain why the first two are much more favorable to Democrats than the last two. I don't know, however, why such a sample split would be a good idea.

New series of polls has Obama gaining ground in key Super Tuesday battlegrounds

So much for my complaint this morning that there weren't enough Super Tuesday polls. A series of surveys released early this afternoon (2 from Connecticut, 2 from New Jersey, 1 from New York, Illinois and Alabama) have Obama gaining ground in some key battlegrounds. He is clearly moving upwards, the question now being whether he will have time to rise a few more points to upset Clinton across the board come Tuesday. Now imagine how suspenseful this week would have been if Romney had won in Florida three days ago, as both races would then be tight heading into Tuesday.

Overall, all these polls paint a very divided Democratic electorate, with both candidates consistent in what groups they are strongest in. Keep an eye on the stunning gender gap in particular, that is often close to 30 to 40%. Obama gets men, Clinton gets women. Most polls also have Clinton up among whites and Obama among blacks, with Clinton holding firm among Latinos.

First, Gallup's national tacking poll that has the race tightening for the 9th straight day. Now, Clinton's lead is down to 3%, 44% to 41%. Among Republicans, McCain is ahead 39% to 24% against Romney and 17% to Huckabee. Fox News also has a national poll out and it shows a bit better news for Clinton, who is still leading 47% to 37%. The national polls are obviously very instructive at this point, since February 5th is as close to a national primary day as the US has ever seen.

And with that we got an impressive series of state polls. First up, Alabama and a new SUSA poll:

• Among Democrats, Clinton and Obama are tied at 47%. Clinton has a massive lead among white voters (65% to 28%) and Obama among blacks (72% to 23%).
• Among Republicans, McCain is ahead with 40% to Hucakbee's 31% and Romney's 21%.

Alabama should be one of the most fascinating states to watch on Tuesday night. Edwards's withdrawal means that the white vote will not divide itself between Clinton and Obama and the racial polarization of the Southern states will greatly help Clinton here. The proportion of black voters in Alabama is inferior to that of Georgia and South Carolina so that Clinton now has a chance of pulling out a victory here. Among Republicans, the few Southern states that are voting on Tuesday are must-wins for Huckabee, so these numbers are bad news for him.

Next, we move to the Tri-State area where Obama is climbing fast. First, New Jersey from which we get two polls today:

• GQR has Obama closing the gap, now only behind 44% to 38%. Edwards supporters are moving to Barack, explaining his rise.


• SUSA has better news for Clinton who is still ahead 51% to 39%. That is due to a massive edge among women, whom she leads 60% to 31%; Obama is ahead 50% to 40% among men, creating a 39% gender gap!
• Among Republicans, McCain is up 48% to 25% for Romney and 9% for Huckabee.

Let's move next door to New York, where Clinton's lead is not as big as it once was:

• SUSA has Clinton ahead 54% to 38%. 3 weeks ago, Obama was trailing 56% to 29% and while he is far from victory that bump means many many extra delegates.
• Among the GOP, McCain is ahead 55% to 21% against Mitt Romney, seemingly benefiting from the support of former Rudy backers.

And that gets us to the tightest race of the region, Connecticut, where two polls paint two very different pictures:

• SUSA came out with a truly shocking poll that shows Obama ahead 48% to 44% amidst a 30% gender gap. This poll conforms to a Rasmussen survey from a few days ago that had the pair tied at 40%.
• Among Republicans, SUSA shows an unshakable McCain, up 53% to 31% on Romney.


• ARG is more generous to Clinton, showing her ahead 48% to 35%. It agrees in McCain's lead, 43% to 25%. ARG's track-record over the past month is not particularly successful, so keep that in mind.

These numbers are very significant. On the GOP side, all three of these states are winner-take-all. Formerly Giuliani strongholds, they are now assured to go for McCain which means that he will get all of the delegates that are awarded in New York, Connecticut and New Jersey, 183 total! That will by itself guarantee that he will come out with a massive advantage over Romney who will be completely shut out.

Among Democrats, the Tri-State area is Clinton's base, her backyard. Any Obama victory in one of those 3 states would generate awful press for Clinton and would bode well for Obama. Furthermore, Clinton was hoping to bury Obama with a delegate lead out of these three states and it looks like that will not happen. New York especially has 281 delegates at stake, and if Obama is keeping it this close statewide it means he will also win some congressional districts and be very close in others, denying Clinton an advantage in delegate out of her home-state.

And that gets us to Obama's home state of Illinois, where a new poll from ARG shows Obama ahead 51% to 40% in his home-state. A Rasmussen poll this morning had him up at 60%, so both of today's ARG polls have Clinton higher than she is in other polls. There is no question that holding the race close here would give Clinton an unexpectedly high number of delegates. McCain is up 48% to 34% in the GOP race.

Finally, the last poll comes to us from one of the tightest battlegrounds we have on Super Tuesday, Missouri. SUSA came out with a poll that has both races very tight.

• Among Democrats, Clinton is up 48% to 44%, in a 40% gender gap (+22 among women, -18 among men). Another gap here is between registered Democrats (who go for Clinton by 11%) and independents (who prefer Obama by 20%).
• Among Republicans, McCain is ahead 34% to Romney's 30% and Huckabee's 28%, though he runs third among self-identified conservatives. This is the only state polled today that does not have McCain up big, for those keeping track of that.

Obama has long placed Missouri at the center of his Super Tuesday strategy, since he wants to make the argument that Clinton is having trouble winning away from the coasts.

The ground is shifting in Obama's favor, but does he have enough time?

With 6 days to go to Super Tuesday and with the GOP having gone a long way towards settling on a nominee last night, all eyes are now on the Democratic primary where the stakes of the next few days are much higher. Hillary Clinton is seeking to halt the seemingly unending stream of good news for Obama (South Carolina triumph, Kennedy endorsement) by putting forward her Florida win. And the campaign must be happy with the controversy over whether Obama snubbed on the floor of the Senate. Images of that "incident" are now being widely covered by the media, and every news cycle Clinton can own this week could make the difference come Super Tuesday.

The poll numbers indicate that the ground is shifting in Obama's favor and that he is getting closer to his rival. But with 6 days to go and the campaign now national, does Obama have enough time to make his case in the states he needs to do well in come Tuesday, for example in California? That is the huge question we are facing right now. And unfortunately for those of us who are accustomed to relying on polls to get some idea of where an election is heading, it will be very difficult to assess the state of the race in the next week. For one, most polls that are being released yesterday and today were taken late this week-end or on Monday, in other words in the immediate aftermath both of Obama's South Carolina victory and of Ted Kennedy's endorsement. Is that a lasting bounce like the one McCain got out of New Hampshire and South Carolina? Or will it subside in a few days like the one Obama got post-Iowa? It will be very difficult to assess this for a few more days.

Second, John Edwards's withdrawal dramatically alters the race, freeing 10% to 15% of the electorate who will have to choose a second choice. While some will probably stick with Edwards, this could significantly change the dynamnics between Obama and Clinton, and we will not have much indication of where the Edwards vote is going for a couple of days. And third, there is a debate tomorrow night that will probably be watched closely by many Super Tuesday voters, and its impact will likely be decisive. Don't forget that we have already had a couple of game-changing debates, whether October's Philadelphia debate that was the start of Clinton's troubles, the New Hampshire debate on January 5th that caused the female vote to rally around Hillary or the South Carolina debate of last week in which the image of Obama being tag-teamed by two white candidates could have a lot to do with what we saw on Saturday night.

With those words of caution, let's launch into today's polls as nearly all states are tightening right now in what is shaping up to be a fascinating run-up to Super Tuesday. First, Gallup's national poll has some fascinating national numbers in its tracking poll:

• In the latest poll that was in the field from Sunday to Tuesday, Barack Obama has risen to his highest percentage in yet (in the past 3 weeks) and is trailing Clinton by only 6%, 44% to 38%. Five days ago, it was 47% to 32% Clinton; two days ago, it was 44% to 33%. Yesterday, 44% to 34%. Clinton has been steadily declining for about a week now and this is a very worrying trend because a national lead is essential to her chances on Tuesday in what is essentially a national primary. Edwards gets 12% in the latest poll, double the margin between Obama and Clinton... The next few days could prove very instructive.

With that, let's move on to some state polls including in two states that Clinton should be winning very comfortably.

• In Connecticut, in Clinton's backyard, a Rasmussen poll shows Clinton and Obama tied at 40%. The poll was entirely conducted on Sunday, the day after Obama's SC victory, and it has John Edwards at 11%. Clinton can hardly afford to lose one of the states of the Tri-State Area, so she better pay special attention to Connecticut. No previous poll confirms that this primary is heading towards a toss-up, but it fits with the narrative of Obama's rise.
• Among the Republican winner-take-all primary, McCain is ahead big, 42% to 26% for Romney, as we would expect. Giuliani, still including in the poll, gets 12% in what was supposed to be one of his momentum-proof states.


• Next, we have a PPP poll that has Hillary only up by 12% against Obama, 45% to Obama's 33%, with Edwards at 10%. The numbers are strange given the high number of undecideds, particularly among white voters who break 44-29 for Clinton and black voters who go 44-32 for Obama (a lower proportion than we are used to seeing). Clinton leads 64% to 31% among Hispanics, in what is clearly a key constituency for her. Also keep in mind that Obama coming in relatively close to Clinton in New York could get him a big number of delegates from Clinton's very own home-state.


• And with that we move on to some better news for Clinton, a Tennessee poll that has her leading 43% to Obama's 32% with Edwards at 16%. Tennessee will be a disputed state come Tuesday but this is one contest where Edwards's withdrawal should benefit Clinton. He gets 2% among black voters, among whom Obama leads 60% to 20% but he ties Obama among whites (of which Clinton gets 50%).

• The most worrisome numbers yet come from California, where a tracking poll conducted on behalf of an anti-gambling campaign (which is polling an initiative that is also on the ballot and including primary questions) shows Obama only 5% behind Clinton (36-31) in a period ending on Sunday. On Sunday alone, Obama is up 3%, but the margin of error of such a small sample is obviously gigantic. The point remains that Obama is tightening the race, but Obama supporters should not get carried away yet: (1) SUSA's survey that I reported yesterday is probably more reliable was taken entirely on Sunday and has Clinton up 11%; (2) California is one of those states Obama could have an early-voting problem, as about a quarter of the electorate has probably already voted and gone for Clinton big. Can Obama really make up for it?
  

Finally, let's close this poll post with a reminder of why many Democrats would have much rather seen Romney win Florida than McCain. The latest general election numbers come to us from Rasmussen and they have good news for the GOP:

• John McCain defeats Hillary Clinton 48% to 40% and tops Obama 47% to 41%. That's a reversal from two weeks ago when both Obama and Clinton led McCain, albeit by a small margin.

Keep in mind that McCain has gotten a lot of good press lately with his rivals leaving him unscathed, which accounts for why he appears so strong at the moment. Rasmussen will start a daily tracking poll this week-end pitting McCain against both Democrats, so we will see if McCain's numbers go down a bit as the attention shifts back to the Democratic race.

Update: Add one more state in which Obama is rising fast, and this one is directly due to Kennedy's endorsement. A new Rasmussen poll from Massachusetts has Clinton only leading 43% to 37% in a state in which she used to be much stronger. There is no past Rasmussen poll to compare trendlines.

Morning polls: Romney leads in Florida (!), McCain leads in New York and Connecticut

When I see polls from states like New York or Connecticut, my first instinct is to dismiss them as completely irrelevant. After all, the deluge of primary polls from late-voting states throughout the fall taught us nothing useful about the state of the campaign. But it's hard to believe that New York surveys now are crucially important. We are two weeks from Super Tuesday and the dynamics of the race are getting set.

With that, we got a series of polls from states that are coming up in the next two weeks, starting with a stunning Rasmussen poll of Florida:

• Romney is ahead 25% to McCain's 20%, with Giuliani at 19% and Mike Huckabee at 13%, statistically tied with Thompson's 12%.

Don't forget that Florida is a closed primary, the first of any voting state where independents can't vote. That makes McCain's path to victory that much more complicated -- though it is still surprising to see Romney surging to a lead in the first post-South Carolina/Nevada poll.

A Romney win in Florida would scramble the field yet again a week from Super Tuesday -- and looking at the following polls from major February 5th states, it looks like McCain could roll to the nomination if he manages to win Florida, so his rivals better stop him here. A new poll from Connecticut, first was released today from the Univ. of CT:

• Among Republicans, McCain has a massive lead, 39% to 16% for Giuliani. Romney gets 11%, Huckabee 8%.
• Among Democrats, Clinton gets 41%, Obama 27% and Edwards 9%.

Even worse for Rudy Giuliani are these two polls from New York, his home-state:

• A Siena poll has McCain leading Giuliani 36% to 24%, with Romney at 10%.
• Among Dems, Clinton is holding on strong, 48% to 23%.

• Second, Marist released its own poll from NY that has McCain at 34%, ahead of Romney and Giuliani tied at 19%. Huckabee gets 15%. Giuliani is not even leading in New York City.
• Among Dems, Clinton leads 48% to 32%.

Needless to say that these numbers are atrocious for Giuliani. Remember that his campaign's argument was that Connecticut, New York and New Jersey were momentum-proof states that would give him assured victories -- and a delegate lead. For remember that all three are winner-take-all, so even if Rudy loses by one vote he gets no delegate at all. And it looks like a loss in Florida would definitely cause him to fall out at this point. Giuliani's fate is a clear warning sign to whoever wants to attempt to skip the first 4 voting states in the future. The front-runner in national polls three weeks ago, Giuliani now comes fourth or fifth regularly, having completely fallen out of the picture.

The Siena poll also has some general election numbers for the state of New York -- and they show that McCain could actually pick-up the state in the right circumstances:

• Clinton and Obama crush Rudy (56% to 34% and 53% to 35%). Clinton also handily beats McCain (52% to 39%) but McCain manages a statistical tie with Obama (44% to 42%).

That's right, the Empire State could perhaps be a battleground and McCain's superior electability conforms most indications we have been getting recently, including yesterday's SUSA surveys from VA and KS.