The Republican race, post-Michigan: A chaotic ride, with even more undecision expected this Saturday

Mitt Romney got his early-state win. Most people expected it to come in Iowa or in New Hampshire, but Romney managed to lose both of those despite outspending the entire field and then came back to win the primary in the state he grew up in. While Romney's 9% victory is not really a come back given that he massively outpsend his opponents yet again and that he was never that far behind in the polls here, it is still a remarkable turn-around for a candidate that most people thought would be dead if he lost both IA and NH. And sure, Romney was fighting on home turf, but so McCain had many structural advantages favoring him -- he had won here in 2000, the primary was even more open than NH's and Democrats were not holding a competitive contest.

Romney can now go on to later contests, and remember that he is the only candidate with no money problem given that he looks perfectly comfortable funding his campaign with his own money. He cannot be considered the front-runner given that he is leading in no Feb. 5th state nor in Florida and South Carolina at this point, but he has the delegate lead for now.

McCain would have started a coronation march had he pulled off Michigan last night. Instead, he fell victim to his 2000 demons. Registered Republicans are not lining up behind him, and with some of the most important elections that are coming up closed primaries (for example in California), McCain has to improve his standing among the party's base. He cannot go on winning on the strength of the independent vote.

Now, the race turns to South Carolina and to Nevada which vote on Saturday. Most candidates are exclusively focused on South Carolina except Mitt Romney who is going to spend two days in Nevada and run some ads there. He was already the only candidate to haev spend time in the state, so he has to be considered the favorite in the state for now (today's ARG poll gives him a 7% lead). If he pulls Nevada off, Romney could spin a South Carolina defeat as inconsequential, perhaps keep his delegate lead and claim that he is the first candidate with three state wins (if you count Wyoming).

Most eyes will be turned to South Carolina, however, where the battle is already fierce. John McCain was leading in most polls this last few days with Huckabee running a strong second on the strength of the evangelical vote. South Carolina was McCain's undoing in 2000, but he has two huge advantages he did not have back then: (1) He is much stronger among registered Republicans, mainly because there is no establishment candidate the party's base can rally to like it did 8 years ago. (2) The GOP establishment and leadership hates Mike Huckabee much more than they do McCain, and the people who were fighting McCain then are now going after Huckabee.

Mitt Romney used to be stronger in South Carolina than he has been since McCain's rise. Now, Romney has started airing ads here again, and the big question is how much if any boost he will get from his first big win. Just as Thompson is rising in SC again and taking votes from Huckabee, Romney could take votes from McCain in the state, and things could tighten up even more than they already have. And the race is already becoming very nasty

And finally there is the Giuliani factor. Let's face it, the scenario that has played out in the early states was Giuliani's dream set-up: Three states, three victors, no momentum for anyone, nasty adwares between the other candidates, complete chaos and no front-runner. This was what Giuliani was hoping would happen for months now, and it was completely out of his control whether or not it would. Now, we will know if a big state strategy that shuns all early states can ever be viable. If Giuliani cannot pull it off under these conditions, no one probably ever will.

In the three first voting states, Giuliani came behind Ron Paul twice. In Iowa, he flirted with 4%; in Michigan, he was barely ahead of "uncommitted." He is completely out of the news cycle and, even if none of them looks like a front-runner, the other candidates are all benefiting from media exposure and some momentum. And a new poll from New Jersey taken by Monmouth University shows that Giuliani's argument that his lead in states like NY and NJ is "momentum-proof" is completely flawed: McCain leads Giuliani 29% to 25%, with Huckabee at 11%.

Rudy cannot count on his "home states" delivering for him in February. The good news for him is that he has 10 days between South Carolina and Florida (on the 29th). He has to get some momentum in those ten days, and I'm not sure if he has much left in him to make that happen.

Michigan results thread: Romney gets Michigan and survives

1:15am: Last udate of the night, with some information about the voting breakdown in the GOP primary. ROmney actually cut the margins among independents to losing 35% to 29% and 41% to 33% among registered Democrats who voted. McCain was surely hoping for bigger margins there. And among registered Republicans, Romney just got a gigantic lead: 41% to 27%. That accounts for his victory.
12:45am: With 99% of precincts reporting in the Democratic race and 97% in the GOP race, we are very near final results. And Clinton's margin of victory has diminished, though she remains above 50%. She got 55.4% and uncommitted has 39.9%. The late rise of the uncommitted vote can probably be accounted to the Detroit results coming in -- since the black vote appears to have overwhelmingly turned away from Clinton. But it is still good for Hillary to come in above 50% when there had been an effort to hold her under that. Also, can someone ask Edwards and Obama why they withdrew their names from Michigan and not from Florida? Also, the CW is that the delegates are reinstated by the time of the convention. But what happens if the convention is brokered? Odds are Obama allies would then never let the MI and FL delegates in, so would those two swing states be left without representatives?!
In the Republican race, Romney got a large margin of victory, coming in with a higher percentage of the vote than Huck in Iowa and McCain in New Hampshire. He leads 38.9% to 29.8%. Huckabee gets 16.1% and Ron Paul is at 6.3%. Fred Thompson has 3.7% and Rudy Giuliani is at a truly pathetic 2.8%, barely ahead of uncommitted and its 2.1%. More commentary on the results tomorrow.

11pm: The CNN exit polls confirm that 70% of the black vote went to "uncommitted" and finds that 73% of black voters say they would have voted Obama if he had been on the ballot. That is a huge number given Clinton prided herself with running roughly equal with Obama among the African-American community until recently. Clinton better hope this is due to this week's focus on race, because she might have a lot of trouble come February 5th (and certainly come South Carolina).
10:45pm: The Democratic debate is winding down, and it has been amazingly focused on substance and issues over the past hour. A shocking contrast to the first half-hour. Meanwhile, we now have 78% of vote and Romney is ahead 39% to 30%. In what has to be a disappointing showing given that he had a lot of potential in Michigan, Huckabee is left far behind at 16%. Ron Paul is fourth 6%. Thompson sinks at 4% and Giuliani at 3%; they are still barely ahead of uncommitted (2%).
9:40pm: The first part of the debate is over, and the first 35 minutes were almost entirely devoted to process questions with Russert and Williams trying to draw Clinton and Obama into a fight over race, gender. Obama was even asked about the e-mail smears against him. (I will post an analysis of the debate after, rather than live-blog it). Meanwhile, with 33% of precincts reporting, Romney is up 39% to 30%, with Huckabee at 16%. Paul is beating Thompson and Giuliani.
9:20pm: The night was short, as I had said it would probably be at the beginning of the night. We will keep an eye on the margins now, of course, to see if Romney can put some distance between him and McCain. With 20% in, Romney is up 10%, and the lead is increasing. But most eyes (and mine) are turned to the Democratic debate now.

9:01pm: The election is already called for Mitt Romney and Hillary Clinton.
Romney's victory is obviously the big story, it saves his candidacy and he can now press forward with a delegate lead and the first one to win two states! And for those wondering whether Clinton's victory might matter, consider that there is a banner with the results on the bottom of MSNBC's screen that will remind debate watchers that Clinton won Michigan. Also, remember that there was an active bid by Obama and Edwards ally to drive up the uncommitted number and perhaps even hold Clinton under 50%.

9pm: Polls have just closed everywhere, and the Democrats are stepping on the Las Vegas stage. TPM has long reported the exit polls they are seeing that have Romney winning by 6%. With real votes coming in and 9% reporting, it's Romney on top 37% to 31% with Giuliani above uncommitted.
8:40pm: Obama and Clinton have managed to find a way to fight about Michigan. Obama started the latest back-and-forth by sending a memo to the press asking them to not spin a Clinton win as a real victory... and then charges Clinton with secretly planning to campaign in Florida (that had to be coming)! Clinton answered that the Obama camp was driving people to the polls to get them to vote uncommitted. Meanwhile, with 4% of precincts reporting, Clinton leads uncommitted 63% to 31%. Romney is ahead of McCain 35% with 32%, with Huckabee at 17%. Giuliani is under uncommitted (keep an eye on that storyline tonight, and don't be surprised if Huckabee gets a good showing, as low turnout helps him too). One other note: Romney's strongest region is the Detroit metro area, and those precincts will likely report later.
8:30pm: Exit poll of the Democratic race shows Clinton handily crushing... uncommitted but black voters in the exit poll are voting uncommitted with 70%, a huge slap to Clinton after a week of focus on race. Exit polls showing Romney running better than in NH among registered Republicans. And in a last minute decision, the NV supreme court ruled against Kucinich (literally at the last minute), who will not be in the debate tonight.
7:50pm: A week ago, Romney was "cautiously optimistic" in New Hampshire, and Jonathan Martin reports that Team Romney is optimistic again right now. McCain's team has been spinning a possible victory all day already, saying that Romney is only winning as a native son. At least the campaigns have set expectations. Now it will soon be the results.
7:30pm: The early exit polls are already trickling in, and we are getting our first indication as to what proportion of the GOP electorate is independent/registered Democrats: In the early exit polls, 68% of voters are registered Republicans, 25% are independents and 7% are registered Democrats. That's way superior to what Zogby was betting on, but also inferior to the surge in Republican voting that Mitchell had predicted in his projection of a large Romney victory. But the number is still enough for Romney to hope for victory -- in 2000, when McCain beat Bush, only 45% of voters were registered Republicans, so this is a much less favorable electorate for the Arizona Senator. Though keep in mind that McCain does much better among registered Republicans than he did in 2000.

Another exit poll indication: Most voters are concerned about the economy (55% rate it as their most pressing issue), and while that is certainly expected it is good for Romney who does best among voters preoccupied with the economy.

Original post: Hard to believe we have already reached our third results thread, and it hasn't even been two weeks since Iowa! The race now looks entirely different than it did at the start of the year, and the Republican Party could take a big step towards coronating McCain tonight... or push the primary process into further chaos by voting for Romney. With one eye on the Democratic debate, I will be updating the Michigan results here, but keep in mind that the night could be short: The GOP winner in IA and NH was announced very early in the evening, and it should not take as much time as usual for precincts to count ballots given how small turnout appears to be. We will also be looking to see whether Clinton's rivals managed to keep under 50% by pushing Dems to vote "uncommitted."

For now, you can always check the final round of polls that were released this morning!

Tidbits from Michigan, while we wait for tonight

The only thing to observe on an election day is turnout, and reports for now (like this one from the Grand Rapids Press) is that turnout will be very low. Clerks are reworking their estimate from 20% to 15% -- though this accounts for both parties which might be misleading given that the Democratic primary is not contested. The Detroit Free Press has a good compilation of interviews with voters, and confirms that voting is very light.

The CW, of course, is that this will help Romney who needs only the most committed of registered Republicans to turn out to vote, while McCain is relying on registered Democrats and indies to come out and swamp the GOP primary -- which is unlikely to be happening if turnout is that low. And the snow could also discourage the least motivated of voters from going to the polls. However, let's be careful to not draw quick conclusions. The Free Press points out to empty polling places in the Detroit metro area, which is Romney's stronghold. If that is not confirmed at equal proportions across the state, it could hurt Romney's chances.

Just as it did in Iowa and in New Hampshire, the Romney campaign swamped its competitors in Michigan. The expenditures are now being compiled, and Romney has spent about $2 million in the state versus about $750,000 for McCain and almost $500,000 for Huckabee. It is important to note, however, that Romney started his ad campaign here a month ago while his rivals ran their first ads much later. It appears that McCain matched Romney's spending since New Hampshire. But if Romney loses tonight, expect another round of stories about Romney failing to win despite spending obsene amounts of money.

One key difference between the first two contests and today's is that the candidates largely stayed away from negative ads in Michigan. You might remember that Huckabee had faced a deluge of attacks in Iowa and Romney had done the same in New Hampshire -- only to face McCain's response ads (which were much more negative and ad hominem). That strategy failed twice, and Romney apparently chose to stay away in Michigan. Also, Romney's campaign here emphasizes economic issues through a sunny optimism -- a sunniness that could be ruined if Romney goes on the attack.

Romney has not hesitated to go on the attack in mailers, however -- check this one on immigration, via the Politico. The South Carolina primary is coming up, and the Romney-McCain wars are picking up there as well (which is not surprising given South Carolina's history of nasty elections). TPM has a good summary of the mailers that are being sent in that state between the two candidates -- and we will hear much more about this in the coming days.

Michigan votes, as candidates start thinking ahead to SC

Polls are now open in Michigan, and they will close at 9pm ET. The catch: The Las Vegas Democratic Debate will start at the same time, forcing political observers to keep one eye on Nevada and one eye on the GOP results. For now, however, the focus is still on the Republican race with the big question mark of who is turning out to vote, and what proportion of the electorate is independent and registered Democrat.

And, as always, we start off the day with our final tracking polls (remember, why polls were completely off in New Hampshire, they had started to show a Clinton come-back by the last 24 hours). And thus here is Zogby's survey:

• John McCain gets 27% to Mitt Romney's 26%, with Huckabee at 15%, Ron Paul at 8%, Thompson at 5% and Giuliani at 3%. Yesterday, the numbers were 27-24, so a small rise for Romney. Zogby adds that Romney is (oh so) slightly ahead on Monday alone.

The second poll comes to us from Mitchell Interactive, a Michigan based polling group, and it has some major movement for Romney:

• Today, Romney gets 36% to McCain's 29% with Huckabee at 12%. Yesterday, Romney was only ahead 29% to 27% and the first tracking poll of the group taken after New Hampshire had McCain ahead 23% to 16%. The two previous polls obviously have a much higher number of undecideds and this poll is basically registering undecideds breaking for a candidate -- and Mitt Romney is getting the lion's share.

And third, ARG also is showing Romney surging upwards -- though he only rises to a tie:

• McCain gets 31% to Romney's 30% with Huckabee also rising at 19%. Over the week-end, ARG's poll had McCain at 34% and Romney at 27%. But ARG is predicting 80% registered GOP turnout, which is much higher than other polls.

What is next for the Romney campaign? Once the front-runner in every state that has already voted, Romney cannot afford getting second-place for the third time. That would make him more consistent than other candidates, but it would also mean a second straight high-profile defeat to John McCain, and in the state that is the most naturally fitted to Romney's message since it is one of the most focused on economic issues (as opposed to national security, where McCain has an edge).

If McCain wins, frankly, the story will not even be about Romney's loss given how close McCain will get to insuring he gets the nomination if he scores a victory here -- independently of whatever Romney does. But if Romney wins, he clearly is ready to wage an all-out-war in the coming weeks and is in position to get strong showings in South Carolina, Nevada and Florida -- further demonstrating that he is running a national consistent campaign.

News a week ago was that Romney had abandoned South Carolina as he had pulled out of the state, but reports today are that he is getting ready to start running ads again in both South Carolina and in Florida. It is a bit surprising to see him play in the South again given so close to voting day, but he would probably get some kind of exposure boost if he won today and he often posts very good numbers in that state.

Michigan, Nevada and cross-over voting

The results of tomorrow's Michigan primary and Saturday's Nevada caucuses could depend on the proportion of registered Republicans, Democrats and independents in each party's contest. Just as Obama and John McCain relied on independents to win respectively in Iowa and in New Hampshire, both candidates could get a boost by more cross-over voting this week.

This is especially true in Michigan, where there is effectively no Democratic primary. This means that independents and registered Democrats have nowhere to go but the GOP primary -- and that could very well save McCain's candidacy, as most polls show him trailing Romney badly among registered Republicans. And don't underestimate the number of Democrats who could vote for Republicans tomorrow. The Zogby poll out this morning shows that 22% of the GOP electorate could be Democratic! Race42008 compares the different polls for evidence of the trendline that Romney does best the more GOP voters are included (and this confirms it with the exception of that Mason-Dixon poll). This comparison would seem to indicate that Romney needs about two-thirds of voters tomorrow to be registered Republicans:

Zogby: McCain +3 (50% Republican voters)
Rasmussen: Romney +1 (70% Republican voters)
Mitchell: Romney +2 (75% Republican voters)
Detroit Freep: Romney +5 (83% Republican voters)
MSNBC/Mason-Dixon: Romney +8 (70% Republican voters)

Everyone is now trying to read the tealeaves. And two stories are being talked about right now. First, the weather will not be very good tomorrow in Michigan. It will be freezing with some heavy snow. No storm, certainly, but odds are that some Democrats or independents who cannot be that committed to voting in a GOP primary just stay home; and Romney's supporters being more staunchly Republican, that should reassure him that he will not lose voters because of weather.

Second, the Politico's Jonathan Martin notes a change in voting law in Michigan that could convince some indies and Dems to stay out tomorrow. Until recently, voters could just go in the privacy of the voting booth and only choose then which party they want to participate in. Now, voters have to declare when they enter which ballot they have, with an R or a D written next to their name -- which has to hard to go through for some Democrats, and also for some independents who like to sit on the fence. Martin talks to some voters who declare being worried about this.

And similar dynamics are playing out in the Democratic race. An Obama precinct captain is distributing fliers that try to convince Democrats to change their registration for a day to stop Hillary (who presumably GOPers don't particularly like): "Republicans, Independents, Everyone. You can make the difference if you think a Democrat will win in November and you don't want Hillary...You can come to the Democratic caucus and vote for Obama."

The Obama campaign has since disavowed the flier, but convincing Republicans and independents to vote in the Democratic primary is definitely part of Obama's strategy, and his camp likes to boast that he is expanding the "governing majority." And Clinton regularly takes subtle jabs at Obama's reliance on non-Democrats -- just as Romney is likely to do tomorrow night if McCain wins by swamping the polls with non-Republicans.

Morning polls: GOP muddle in Michigan and Florida, but South Carolina is less tight for both parties

We're one day away from the Michigan primary that could either save Romney's candidacy or go a long way towards clinching the nomination for John McCain. And after a wave of reliable polls showing Romney up big this week-end (Mason-Dixon had him up 8, the Free Press has him up 5), Zogby now gives a slim lead to McCain:

• McCain gets 27%, with Romney at 24%. Huckabee is far behind at 15%, followed by Ron Paul at 8%, Giuliani at 6% and Fred Thompson at 5%.
• Now here is the key to this election: Romney beats McCain handily among registered Republicans, 30% to 20%. but Republicans only make up 51% of the sample.
• Because there is no competitive Democratic primary, a full 22% of the sample are registered Democrats, and they are going for McCain 35-17. Similarly, the 27% of independents are going for McCain 33-18.

Just as in the Iowa caucuses for Democrats, the key to the Michigan primary will be the proportion of non-Republicans who vote tomorrow. And there is no way to know how much better the numbers could have looked for Romney if most of the Democratic candidates had not withdrawn their names from the ballot.

The next step for Republicans -- though it is a bit more distant for Democrats -- is South Carolina, where we also got a new poll from Public Policy Polling:

• Among Democrats, Obama has opened up a big lead -- confirming what we have seen in other polls lately. He leads 44% to 31% with Edwards at 16%. And forget the black vote, Hillary does not even get a majority of the female vote anymore, as she trails 42% to 37%.
• Among Republicans, McCain confirms that he is a few inches ahead of the field with 28% followed by Huckabee at 21%, Romney at 17% and Thompson at 14%.

One quick note for each race: Clinton appears to be losing South Carolina and the controversy over the racial overtones of her comments is getting a lot of press time there; this just underscores the importance of Nevada for her and, perhaps, of Florida (see below). As for Republicans, Romney is strong enough that he could have a good showing (strong second at least) if he wins Michigan; but if he loses tomorrow, it looks like SC will be the first state in which Romney will not play for the win.

Finally, we got two polls from Florida -- and John McCain is ahead in both, albeit well within the margin of error:

• A Quinnipiac poll has McCain at 22%, followed by Rudy at 20% and Romney and Huckabee at 19%. That's an 8% drop for Giuliani since the last Quinnipiac survey and a 9% rise for McCain.
• Rasmussen, meanwhile, has an even tighter-race, with McCain at 19%, Romney and Giuliani at 18%, Huckabee at 17% and Fred Thompson at 11%.


• Among Democrats, Quinnipiac shows Hillary way ahead 52% to 31%.

The GOP race will shift a lot still depending on the results in Michigan and South Carolina (and Nevada?), though it is remarkable that McCain has already taken the lead here -- he will have to be considered the favorite if he pulls off Michigan and/or South Carolina.

The Democratic race is the big question mark. Remember that the candidates have pledged to not campaign there because of the early-states fury, but Obama and Edwards have not taken their name out of the ballot. Thus, there will be no delegates at stake, no campaigning but there will be actual results the same night as the GOP primary. Given Clinton's big lead right now, it seems that she has to be considered the favorite especially if her rivals cannot go and contest her dominance -- and she could very well save face a few days prior to February 5th by at least getting the appearance of a win.

GOP update: Nevada, Michigan and South Carolina -- all next week

Forgive me my focus on the GOP race these past 2-3 days, and keep in mind that Republicans have three major contests in the next seven days compared to only one for Democrats. The week to come could be decisive for Republicans and Michigan has become the key battleground for now.

South Carolina was supposed to be the defining state for any GOP nomination fight, the primary that no nominee has lost and that has broken so many presidential aspirations (starting with John McCain's in 2000). But South Carolina's influence has decreased this year because of Michigan's intrusion in the lead-up to the first Southern primary. The move to push Michigan forward was instigated by the state's Democrats, but it is the GOP fight that their decision has transformed.

With McCain and Romney spending most of their time in Michigan since New Hampshire's showdown, Huckabee and Thompson are traveling across South Carolina by themselves for now. But the national press is first and foremost covering Michigan, sensing that the state could either pretty much kill off Romney's hope and boost McCain's momentum -- perhaps to a point of no-return -- or suddenly revive a Romney campaign and throw the GOP contest in complete chaos.

I have already blogged about four polls today and they all showed varying results (two toss-ups, one Romney and one McCain lead, the latter coming from the least reliable poll). And now we get a fifth Michigan poll for the day that confirms that Romney could be saved come Tuesday (and the three polls that are the most reliable have him at -1, +5, +8) -- though the high number of undecideds means that anything could happen in the state:

• MSNBC has Romney at 30%, followed by McCain at 22% and Huckabee at 17%. Thompson comes in at 7%, Giuliani at 6% and Ron Paul at 5%. Most of Romney's lead comes from registered Republicans, while he is led 38% to 18% among independents.

The Michigan campaign is being run, predictably, on the economy -- and all evidence points to that being Romney's strength. Since Thursday's debate, Romney has been pouncing on McCain's suggestion that Michigan will not recover the same jobs it lost and McCain responding that Romney's promises are opportunistic and that he himself would be "ashamed" to say such things. The immigration debate is also playing a big role on the trail and coming up in town hall events, and keep in mind that his push for immigration reform is one of the main reasons McCain is distrusted by conservative activists .

Huckabee's failure to rise higher in Michigan is a surprising development. The one thing the polls agree on is that Huckabee has lagged behind Romney and McCain and is not crossing 20%. Given that Michigan has a sizable evangelical population and that the state's economic crisis makes it ideally suited for Huckabee's everyday man populist message, one would expect to see him run stronger. One big factor explaining his third-place for now is simply that Huckabee is not devoting as much time and effort to the state right now, putting most of his eggs in South Carolina.

But it is McCain who is getting good news for now in the Palmetto State. Today, McCain was endorsed by The State, South Carolina's biggest newspaper (you can read the endorsement here). The State narrowed down the field to Huckabee and McCain but picked against the former due to his foreign policy inexperience. One of the most striking stories of this year's race is the quasi-unanimity of editorial boards in favor of McCain, even in Iowa where McCain barely set foot. He got most papers in New Hampshire and in the Boston area (Concord Monitor, Union Leader, Boston Globe and Boston Herald) and he is now also picking-up support from publications in Michigan and in South Carolina. Newspaper endorsements are never that important, but McCain has been moving to exploit them as he pretty much as a standard template ad now running in all primary states touting the support he has received from that state's papers.

Finally, the Nevada caucuses are next week as well -- and they are no doubt the forgotten story of the Republican contest. With Clinton and Obama now campaigning all out in the state (whose outcome is more in doubt that South Carolina's is at this point), the GOP candidates have not really visited the state. And this should allow Romney to get a much-need win here, as he is the only candidate (via the Washington Post) to have build an organization here.

Just as he prevailed in Wyoming, Romney could win Nevada -- under-the-radar and by default. But a win is a win, and Nevada could prove much more of a boost. First of all, Nevada Democrats are voting on the same day which puts the spotlight on the Republican results as well. Second, the election is the same day as South Carolina's primaries so the press will cover all results at once the next day. If he manages to pull off Michigan on Tuesday and stay in the race, Romney can thus use Nevada to offset a (probable) South Carolina loss and remain relevant heading to Florida.

Evening polls: Michigan still looks tight, but McCain is (by far) the most competitive in a general election

A few days to go to the Michigan primary, and Mitt Romney is looking to be more alive than people expected him to be following his dual IA and NH loss. Here are four new polls of the state -- one with a big McCain lead, one with a big Romney lead, two with toss-up. And the least reliable of the three (ARG) is the one that shows the best results for McCain, so Romney has everything to hope for going in the final days of campaigning.

• The Detroit News poll shows a toss-up with McCain at 27% and Romney at 26%. Huckabee is behind at 19%. One important note: Romney leads among registered Republicans.


• The Detroit Free Press poll gives Romney a comfortable lead, 27% to 22% against McCain, with Huckabee at 16%. Romney's lead is being clearly driven by those who name the economy as the top issue. Among that group, 42% would opt for Romney. Here again, Romney leads by 11% among registered Republicans, but a whooping 50% of the electorate has not decided or could still change its mind! One more interesting note: The pollster of the Free Press is Ann Selzer, the same one who nailed Iowa for the Des Moines Register two weeks ago.


• The ARG poll has better news for McCain, showing him up 34% to 27% with Huckabee far behind at 15%. Ron Paul with 9% comes far ahead of Rudy's 5% and Thompson's 4%.


• And, last but not least, Rasmussen has Romney at 26% statistically tied with McCain at 25%. Huckabee lags behind at 17%, with Thompson at 9%, Ron Paul at 8% and Giuliania at 6%.

It is truly remarkable how, state after state, Romney's totals have barely faded and that McCain and Huckabee have surged and passed him solely by relying on the collapse of other candidates. In New Hampshire, for example, Romney got 32% of the vote -- just where he was for most of the year. And now in Michigan, Romney has not dropped at all from where he was two weeks ago despite his two losses.

The bad news for Mitt, of course, is that Michigan is the last of the three states in which he was strong heading into 2008 (he could also get a win in Nevada, but no one really knows what is going there for now). In places like South Carolina and Florida, Romney can always not fade but it's not going to get him very far -- which is why he needs an early victory so bad to boost him up. Let's see if he can get it in Michigan.

And Democrats better hope he does beat John McCain, who is consistently looking to be the strongest general election contender for his party. A CNN general election poll just released paints a disastrous picture for Republicans -- unless McCain is the nominee. Meanwhile, Clinton and Obama poll sensibly the same:

• Giuliani is being crushed by both Clinton (55% to 42%, up from a 6% lead last month) and Obama (56% to 40%).
• Romney is even weaker, trailing Clinton 58% to 40% and Obama 59% to 37%.
• Clinton and Obama also lead Huckabee by double-digits, respectively 56% to 42% and 58% to 39%.
• But McCain stays in very close contact, as Clinton is only ahead 50% to 48% and Obama 49% to 48%.

That's right, Giuliani, Romney and Huckabee are all demolished by double-digits and McCain manages to tie. And the good news for McCain is that he replicates this in poll after poll. Here is a new survey from SUSA of the most important state come November, Ohio. The poll was released last week but I didn't get too talk about it since it was in the middle of New Hampshire season:

• Clinton beats both Rudy and Romney 49% to 41%, though Huckabee manages to get within 1%, 47% to 46%. But McCain gets ahead, 48% to 46%.
• Against Obama, the results are similar. Barack beats Rudy 49-41, Obama 51-39. But he ties Huckabee at 46% and he sinks against McCain, 50% to 43%.

Notice here also that Huckabee is much stronger than some people expect to see him, and that also is not an outlier as we have now seen many polls that have Huckabee stronger than Giuliani and Romney. Here is the last Kentucky poll from SUSA that was also released the same day as Ohio's, so it's now ten days old. Huckabee runs roughly equal with McCain and far far ahead of Giuliani and Romney who both struggle to keep a very red state red. Huckabee has no problem holding the GOP base.

McCain surges nationally and faces tests next week, as Kos helps Romney and Huckabee relies on the South

It's only been three days since John McCain's New Hampshire victory, but all evidence is that the Arizona Senator has regained his status as the GOP front-runner. And remember, his surge started way before January 8th, so it cannot be attributed to a post-New Hampshire bounce. The first sign of movement in favor of McCain occurred in Iowa, where he looked stunningly strong considering he had barely campaigned in the state. Now, a series of polls released this afternoon confirms that McCain is marching towards the nomination and his rivals better stop him fast, preferably next week:

• A Michigan poll has McCain up 23% to Mitt Romney's 16% and Mike Huckabee at 11%.


• SUSA, meanwhile, released a poll of Florida that shows some big movement: McCain leads with 27%; behind him comes a three-way tie for second, with Giuliani at 19% and Romney and Huckabee at 17%. A month ago, Giuliani got 32% with Huck at 16% and McCain at 11%.


• Last but not least, a national poll from CNN has some shocking numbers. Not only is this the first (non-Rasmussen) survey with McCain up, but he is ahead big: 34% to Huckabee's 21% and Giuliani's 18%. In the last CNN poll, McCain only had 11%.

Remember that many in the GOP were waiting for a front-runner they could rally around, and that Giuliani tried to fill that position without every being really convincing. The McCain surge is not just a post-victory bounce; it might be the base that had abandoned him after an early vetting coming back around after having vetted everyone else.

McCain has two obstacles. The first is that he needs to eliminate Romney for good on Tuesday in Michigan. He has a lot going for him there, in particular the fact that the primary is open again. Furthermore, he won the state in 2000 in a much less divided field, as Bush had coalesced the conservative vote. This time, that vote will likely divide itself between Huck and Romney.

Yet, Romney is strong in that state as well. Naturally his dad was governor there, but the Romney camp believes his emphasis on business experience and economic issues will play particularly well here. And now comes a truly bizarre story: DailyKos's Markos is organizing a Democrats for Mitt campaign to get Michigan Democrats to cross-over to the GOP primary (since there is no contest in the Dem side) and vote for Romney. His explanation: "We want Romney in, because the more Republican candidates we have fighting it out, trashing each other with negative ads and spending tons of money, the better it is for us. We want Mitt to stay in the race, and to do that, we need him to win in Michigan."

I am not suggesting that Romney will win the primary out of this, but it is an interesting reference point in the post-New Hampshire dynamics of the GOP race. Though you should not underestimate the strength of the netroots. Kos cites many prior examples of this happening in Michigan, starting with the 1972 presidential primaries in which 1/3 of voters in the Dem primary were GOPers who helped segregationist George Wallace win the contest. The main issue here is how to spread the word in 6 days -- and efforts are already under way, starting with a booming Facebook group.

The second obstacle to McCain is Huckabee's strength in Southern states. A new poll of Georgia released today has Huckabee leading the field, and Huck is still very much in contention to win South Carolina next week. His hold of evangelicals demonstrated by his big Iowa win should be very useful there and going into Feb. 5th where a lot of Southern states will vote (including Georgia).

If Huckabee sweeps Southern states, it would be hard for McCain to force him out of the race and the GOP race could get more muddied. The South awards many delegates, and its importance cannot be understated in a GOP primary. After all, Thompson's strategy always relied on winning the South -- which explains why he is now going after Huck so ferociously.

Of course, McCain winning South Carolina would ease those concerns and show his own strength in the South. And winning Michigan would allow him to knock Romney out and coalesce much of Romney's establishment-type support around himself. McCain could go a long way towards clinching the nomination if he succeeds next week.

GOP update: McCain leads in SC and in MI, as Romney's support is the big question mark

First up, Michigan, where Strategic Vision shows a very good picture for the new GOP front-runner:

• John McCain leads with 29%, in front of Mitt Romney at 20% and Huckabee at 18%. Giuliani holds his own at 13% with Thompson and Paul far behind at 5%.

The survey was taken from January 4th to 6th, so it does not include any further New Hampshire bounce McCain could have gotten after that. Michigan is the new battleground in the GOP race, of course, and McCain and Romney are organizing there. Huckabee is spending more time in South Carolina, which should give hope to Romney that he won't drop to third-place again -- is Romney ever going to get any credit for his consistent showings?

The sign of how strong McCain is right now is South Carolina, in which he has surged ahead to lead in two polls:

• In the Rasmussen survey, John McCain is ahead 27% to 24%, with Mitt Romney at 16% and Fred Thompson at 12%. Giuliani is at 6% and Ron Paul at 5%. This is a post-New Hampshire poll, and it shows some major change from last Sunday where Huckabee was up 28% to 21%.
• Fox News also has a poll out tonight: McCain leads with 25%, followed by Huckabee at 18% and Romney at 17%. Thompson is only at 9%, with Paul and Giuliani at 5%.
  

I believe this is the first time since McCain's spring/summer collapse that he has led in the state that was his undoing in 2000, and a McCain victory on the 19th could make him as unstoppable as he could be. Huckabee has to stop McCain's momentum in South Carolina and he will spend much of the next 10 days campaigning there. And he has obviously been very strong in recent polls, so let's wait a few days to see what happens once McCain's post-victory bounce erodes (remember what happened to the Obama NH bounce...).

Meanwhile, the Huckabee pile-on is starting in South Carolina. Victim's Voice, an independent 527 voice is now trying to run an ad (watch it here) blasting Huckabee for liberating convicted rapist Wayne DuMond. The mother of one of DuMond's victims says in the ad, "If not for Mike Huckabee, my daughter would be alive today." The group does not have enough money to run the ad broadly but they are certainly hoping for some publicity, and this is the kind of negative attack that South Carolina is famous for.

The big question in this state is what happens to Romney's support. Mitt has stopped running ads in the state and Jonathan Martin is now reporting that Romney might entirely drop out of the state unless he posts a significant victory first in Michigan. And where are Romney's South Carolina voters likely to migrate? Could Thompson pick up some support there? Those could be key questions in the fight for South Carolina.

The Romney campaign apparently has some hope for Nevada since they are the only campaign who has spent time and resoures in that state and with everyone else being occupied in South Carolina, Romney could perhaps finally pull a victory (beyond Wyoming).

Three-way GOP tie in Michigan, as Huckabee, McCain and Romney will battle for the next ten days

After a break of a few hours, time to refocus on the campaign and on the next contests, as candidates are starting to plan their strategies for the weeks ahead. The Republican race, of course, is the one where the campaigns are facing the most urgency as they have to organize for Michigan, Nevada and South Carolina all in the next ten days (Democrats only have a contest in Nevada in that same time).

The GOP race is for now a battle between three men: Huckabee, Romney, and McCain. There is no reason to think Giuliani or Thompson will manage to get themselves in the storyline over the next ten days. Giuliani is a blip in polling in South Carolina and Michigan and he will hardly campaign there; and it seems unlikely Thompson will right his sinking ship by January 19th.

To start off this exciting week, we get a Michigan poll from the Rossman group which gives us a good indicator of where things stood pre-New Hampshire (poll taken January 6th-7th)

• Mike Huckabee gets 23%, Mitt Romney 21% and John McCain 18%. Giuliani is behind at 8% with Fred Thompson at 4%.

This conforms to the conventional wisdom of who the big three candidates in Michigan, though the race is being portrayed as a Romney-McCain contest right now. Before Huckabee supporters get too excited, indications for now are that Huckabee is not looking to make a major push in the state.

Indeed, that is the major question: how much money every candidate has right now, and where they are willing to invest it. Huckabee appears to be going for South Carolina, though if the campaign realizes they have a chance to pull Michigan off and follow it up with South Carolina within 4 days, don't be surprised if they commit their candidate to Michigan.

The surprise is coming from the Romney campaign, which appears to be running no more ads in both Florida and South Carolina; at this point it is likely that Romney is relying heavily on his own money and how much more of that is he willing to spend without tangible results? A third loss in Michigan combined with Huckabee's current strength in South Carolina would make a come-back very unlikely.

As for John McCain, he faces another kind of challenge: To get an organization, staffers and money, and fast. Romney has already started absentee-ballot programs in Florida and February 5th states and Huckabee has been making his presence known in South Carolina for a while. McCain, meanwhile, has campaigned almost exclusively in New Hampshire and all evidence is that he has very little money left. His victory yesterday will bring him some big fund-raising totals, but he needs to get that going soon, hire staffers and hit the big states that are looming. Contrary to New Hampshire, he cannot win California, Florida, Texas or Illinois on the strength of his campaign style. He has to run ads and get out the vote.

So until Florida comes in focus and the press evaluates whether it's worth covering Giuliani again, it's Romney-Huckabee-McCain for the next 10 days.

Saturday polls: Huckabee ahead in Michigan, not quite in Nevada

• Nevada: Clinton and Romney

Clinton and Romney lead in Nevada according to a new ARG poll, though things are much closer than they were in October:

• Among Republicans, Mitt Romney is first with 29%, followed by... Huckabee at 23% and Giuliani at 17%. In October, Giuliani was at 31%, Romney at 30% and Huckabee at... 2%. That's right, a 1000% increase for Mike Huckabee, mostly at Giuliani's expense.
• Among Democrats, Clinton comes in at 45%, followed by Obama at 18% and Edwards at 14%. This is a relative tightening since October where Clinton got to 51% -- but she has still improved since the beginning of the campaign, where she did not even reach 40%.

Nevada has been forgotten by most everyone, but don't forget that the voting is on January 19th. For Democrats, it will be the only state between New Hampshire on the 8th and South Carolina on the 26th, so it could have a major impact. For Republicans, it will come after Michigan so its importance will certainly be muddied -- but given that Huckabee's surge is as shocking here than anywhere else, it looks unlikely that the caucuses here will stop any momentum he might get in Iowa.

• Michigan: More of the Huckabee surge

Huckabee has also taken the lead in Michigan in the latest Rasmussen poll, with 21% followed by Romney's 20% and Giuliani's 19%. All others are in single-digits.

Michigan was supposed to be a Romney state, since his father has been Governor here. It was going to be the state in which Romney would capitalize on early state wins and catapult his chances to the nomination. Well, is there anywhere without Huckabee ruining anyone's plans at this point?

• Here is a poll with Huckabee trailing!

Rasmussen's general election poll pitting Edwards against some Republicans today has Huckabee polling not as strongly as Rudy Giuliani: Giuliani and Edwards tie at 44%, with Edwards leading Huckabee 44% to 40%.