A few more polls in tight races, as Obama and Clinton are likely to split delegates

We got a few more polls in the past few hours -- including one from Delaware, a state that hasn't been polled in ages:

  • ARG shows the race here is in a statistical tie, with Clinton up 44% to 42%. This is a surprise, as the conventional wisdom holds the Northern Atlantic states to be strongly Clinton.
  • Among Republicans, McCain is barely ahead of Romney, 41% to 35%. You might remember that Delaware was supposed to be one of Giuliani's four "momentum-proof" states (along with CT, NY and NJ) but that does not seem to be helping McCain jump to the sort of lead he has in the Tri-State area.
It looks like Delaware will be yet another state in which Obama and Clinton will split delegates rather equally, though the state's coastal position means that Obama could spin a win here as an upset. And ARG also shows a tight race in Missouri:

  • Obama has taken the lead from Clinton, leading by a tight 44% to 42%. This contradicts this morning's Rasmussen poll but SUSA's survey released yesterday also had a toss-up with Clinton up 48% to 44%.
  • The race is also very tight among Republicans, with Huckabee leading 31% to 29% for McCain and 27% for Romney.
Missouri is a state in which Edwards's withdrawal freed up a significant number of voters, as the former North Carolina Senator was strong in the Midwest. And it seems that most of that support has migrated to Obama. Missouri will be one of the most crucial states to watch for on Tuesday night... But whoever comes out on top is unlikely to get any kind of delegate advantage.

Meanwhile, Clinton got some good news of her own in two new New York polls that have her leading comfortable. Obama's rise in the Empire State was starting to get embarrassing for the state's Senator:

  • Rasmussen shows Clinton is ahead 52% to 34% in her home state.
  • Among Republicans, McCain is set to take all of the state's delegates, as he leads Romney 49% to 30%.
  • Marist has a very similar result, with Clinton ahead 54% to 38%, the same margin to a month ago when Clinton was up 48% to 31%.
  • Among Republicans, McCain is ahead by a massive 62% versus Romney 24%.
Rasmussen has Obama winning the black vote by 40% in New York, and that should allow him to pick up a significant number of delegates. Not only will it be very useful in getting a proportion of the statewide delegates, but Obama could fare very well in some districts -- especially in New York City -- that are predominantly African-American. Obama is also targeting Manhattan's Upper East Side, hoping to get Clinton into a draw there or even get an extra delegate based on Obama's advantage among upper-scale voters.

The Marist also has some very important internals. 76% of Obama's supporters are now "strong supporters" versus 58% a month ago. Clinton's percentage has held steady at 79%. There has been a very key process of solidification of Obama's support over the past month. If Obama had lost Iowa, his weaker supporters would have quickly abandoned him, pointing to the importance of his early win. Marist also has Clinton's New York City lead at a small 10%, 52% to 42%. That confirms that Obama will probably be able to tie her delegate number in many districts within the city.

Meanwhile, still no California polls... I'd be very grateful if someone could explain why we got multiple Illinois and New York surveys over the past 48 hours but nothing from California.

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  • Obama's got 32 mil to burn in just days! We can't let him think he's losing. Networks all over the country need that money. Oh, and spectator sports are all fixed and there is no santa claus. Nine points? In NH? Obama? Ha ha ha ha.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 02 February, 2008 22:57  

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