In day's second wave of polls, Mason-Dixon is more generous to Clinton than Zogby was this morning

Sunday polls bring new evidence that anything could happen on Tuesday evening, and that a national swing of just a few points could lead a candidate to sweep most of the swing states. Just as the Zogby polls released this morning showed some great Obama momentum, a wave of MSNBC/Mason-Dixon surveys just released have better numbers for Clinton.

The fact that really no one knows where the Democratic race is heading at this point is perfectly illustrated by the latest NYT national poll that was released moments ago. The survey has Obama tying Clinton for the first time, at 41%. But among states that are voting this Tuesday, Clinton is massively ahead, 49% to 31%. Considering that it is hard to find a Super Tuesday state with a big Clinton lead at the moment -- including New York -- this finding is very puzzling. The explanation for Obama's rise comes from his increased support among black voters (49% to 67% in a month) as well as white men (23% to 40%).

The most important state in both parties is shaping out to be California, from which we get two new surveys:

  • Mason-Dixon has Clinton ahead by a comfortable 45% to 36% with 16% undecided, more than in any other state polled by the group.
  • Among Republicans, McCain has a healthy lead, 40% to 31%.

  • But a Rasmussen poll of California shows Obama edging out Clinton 45% to 44%, an improvement from the beginning of the week when he trailed by 3%.
  • Rasmussen also shows a much tighter Republican race, with McCain and Romney tied at 38%.
The California poll from both parties are all over the place, with the Democratic race now varying between Clinton +9 to Obama +4 in polls taken at the same time; similarly, the GOP race goes from Romney +3 to McCain plus +9.

The second most crucial state to watch is Missouri, which is a must-win for Romney's survival chances. It is also one of the states that Obama has put at the center of his Super Tuesday strategy. And while recent polls have shown Romney, Huckabee and Obama tying the front-runners, Mason-Dixon has good news for Clinton and McCain:

  • In the Dem race, Clinton is ahead 47% to 41%. This is an open-primary, and Obama has a lead among independents, while Clinton leads registered Democrats.
  • In the GOP race, McCain is ahead 37% to Huckabee's 27% and Romney's 24%.
The third most important state for Romney's chances is Georgia, which is less competitive among Democrats:

  • Mason-Dixon pits the Democratic race closer than other polls we have seen (Zogby has Obama up 20%), showing a 47% to 41% Obama lead. Obama leads 3:1 among black voters, and Clinton is ahead 54% to 31% among whites.
  • Among Republicans, McCain is on top 33% to 27% for Romney and 18% for Huckabee.

  • Rasmussen has a more more comfortable lead for Obama, 52% to 37%.
  • Rasmussen also shows a much tighter GOP race, 31% for McCain, 29% for Romney and 28% for Huckabee.
Remember that the statewide winner of Georgia gets 33 delegates winner-take-all, so even those 2 points would mean that McCain takes 33 delegates home and Romney none. Georgia also gives out delegates at the district-level.

Mason-Dixon also released a survey from New Jersey, which has turned into another unexpected battleground. This morning's Zogby poll had Clinton only up 1% and Monmouth University had her up 14%:

  • This survey has Clinton up 46% to 39%, which is a bit more comfortable for her. But it confirms that the Tri-State area is now unexpectedly close, which should allow Obama to get much more delegates than previously expected.
  • There is less suspense among Republicans, as McCain is up 46% to 31% for Romney and 5% for Huckabee.
Mason Dixon's last poll is a survey of Arizona's Democratic race. This primary was barely polled until the last 24 hours, when Rasmussen had Clinton up 46% to 41%. Mason-Dixon agrees that the race is tight, pitting it at 43% Clinton and 41% Obama. This is another state that Obama was not expected to win and which has attracted less attention than others, confirming that the tightening we are seeing right now is first and foremost a national one.

The Oklhaoma poll released by SoonerPoll today is a bit of an older one (Sunday-Wednesday) and it does not capture the dynamics of Edwards and Giuliani's withdrawals. Among Republicans, McCain leads with 40% versus Huckabee's 19% and Romney's 17%. Among Democrats, it's Clinton at 41%, Edwards in the "mid-20s" and Obama at 17%. This was one of the states in which Edwards was the strongest, so this poll is not a very good indicator of where things are heading since he is still included.

Finally, we got our first poll from Utah today:

  • It confirms that Romney has nothing to fear, and that he will get all of the state's delegates. He leads McCain 84% to... 4%! Utah is winner-take-all, but the irony is that Romney would get all 36 delegates even if it wasn't, as McCain is very far from the viability threshold of 15%.
  • Among Democrats, Obama is way ahead, 53% to 29%.
The conventional wisdom is that Obama will fare better than Clinton in the red states holding caucuses on Tuesday -- also North Dakota, Idaho -- and this poll confirms that. And that could help him not only to claim he can appeal to independents, but also to come out of Tuesday with a significant number of states under his belt.

Labels: , , , , , , , , , ,


  • Umm, Mason-Dixon is good in the South. But their record outside the south is horrid. Might as well quote ARG.

    But I agree, no one knows what the hell is going to happen Tuesday.

    I find all polling done during "SuperBowl-Sundy" dubious at best.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 03 February, 2008 20:39  

  • I have to say this is a great site for day to day updates. I haven't once felt that your opinions leaning one way or another amounted to undue bias. The media has displayed so much favoritism though that it makes the cynic in me suspect deliberate manipulation.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 03 February, 2008 21:09  

Post a Comment

Subscribe to Post Comments [Atom]

<< Home