GOP loses potential Senate candidates, prevents open House seats

With filing deadlines fast approaching, all congressional committees are working furiously to recruit top candidates in races that were supposed to be competitive but where no one has stepped forward. The Democrats have had their own share of disastrous recruitment efforts (in North Carolina and Kentucky, most noticeably), but the Republicans have had a much tougher time fielding candidates in a year most indicators are suggesting might be as blue as 2006.

One of the most disappointing races for the NRSC has to be South Dakota, which was one of only two obvious targets for them (along with Louisiana). But Tim Johnson's stroke at the end of 2006 made the race that much more difficult for the GOP; despite his health problems, Johnson did not retire (confirming how immovable Senators tend to be) and the wave of sympathy that surrounded him probably convinced a few Republicans -- starting with Gov. Rounds -- to not jump in.

Now, Republican hopes were pinned on former Lt. Gov. Steve Kirby, who would already have been a very low-tier candidate (Johnson crushes him in a recent poll). But now Kirby has announced that he will not run, making it that more difficult for Republicans to make this race competitive. Their hopes are now in the hands of Joel Dykstra, the assistant Majority Leader in the state House. Dykstra was also trounced by Johnson in that same poll and it very improbable that the NRSC will do much to help him considering how many other seats it has to worry about.

Another GOP disappointment has been Iowa, where Democratic Senator Tom Harkin has faced very close re-election races in the past. The NRSC was hoping to field a strong challenger again and test Harkin's vulnerabilities. It quickly became clear, however, that none of the potentially strong Republicans were wiling to jump in the race. There was some speculation that Rep. Steve King, one of the Republican congressmen who is furthest to the Right but who is popular in his district, might jump in, but he squashed that today by announcing that he would not run for Senate and run for re-election in the House. There's at least a consolation for the GOP here -- they will not have to defend one more House open seat!

King made more news today when he went after Obama and suggested that his election would lead terrorists to go "dancing in the streets."

It does matter. His middle name does matter. It matters because they read meaning into that and the rest of the world, it has special meaning to them. They'll be dancing in the streets because of his middle name. They'll be dancing in the streets because of who his father was and because of his posture that says pull out of the Middle East and pull out of this conflict.

Republicans appear to be developing a strategy of getting people who are already known for their extremist statements (and are thus less susceptible of being influenced by pressure and scrutiny) to go after Obama for his middle-name and perpetuating the Muslim smear.

Passing on Arkansas, in which Republicans are apparently leaving freshman Sen. Pryor uncontested, the next item of news is NY-29, where the GOP also avoided an open seat. This one would have been very difficult, too, as Rep. Kuhl barely won against challenger Eric Massa in 2006, 51% to 49%. Kuhl had been hinting that he might call it quits this time, which had Republicans worried about defending his seat. His announcement that he will run for re-election sets a rematch of the 2006 election, as Massa is again running against him.

Update: The New York Times giant headline at this minute: "Spitzer linked to prostitution ring"! There are very few details right now, but this obviously looks like a major story that could have huge consequences in New York politics.

Friday polls: Diverging margins in Mississippi, and the state of do-over primaries

The Democratic candidates are preparing for two more contests in the next few days -- Wyoming and Mississippi -- on which there has been no public polling. Until today, that is. Two polls were released of the Mississippi primary, which is expected to go heavily for Obama. The share of the African-American population in this primary could be higher than in any other contest's -- but these polls suggest that the higher a state's black population the more whites vote for Clinton. We had witnessed this racial polarization in South Carolina and Georgia, and now here it is in Mississippi:

• ARG shows Obama leading 58% to 34%, a very large margin that hides big disparities: Clinton wins white voters 61% to 22%, while Obama carries African American voters 87% to 11%.


• Insider Advantage -- which has had a very good track record in most states it has polled, and which picked up Clinton's Texas rise first -- shows Obama up only 46% to 40%. Now, IA itself acknowledges that Obama's margin is likely higher because a full 20% of black voters tested in this poll are undecided, putting Obama at 66% -- he will almost certainly be much higher on Tuesday. But IA also shows Clinton winning an astonishing 71.8% of the white vote.


• Another very strange result in which both polls are consistent is that Clinton does better among men than among women, which suggests that Mississippi white men are not willing to back a black candidate...

If this level of racial polarization holds on Tuesday, it would provoke some very strange delegate distribution scenarios, as Clinton and Obama would both be close to being shut out in different parts of the state depending on the racial make-up of different districts.

Meanwhile, Rasmussen came out with two very interesting polls today from Florida and Michigan, testing the two candidates in possible do-overs. The results are very different:

• In Michigan, Clinton and Obama tie at 41%. In January, Clinton had gotten 55% of the vote without any opposition.
• In Florida, Clinton gets 55% to Obama's 39%, which is a healthy lead. On January 29th, Clinton had beaten Obama 50% to 30%.

It goes without saying that Clinton is likely a few points below Obama in a Michigan caucus if she can only tie him in a primary, so that poll is not a good sign for the Clinton campaign. One of their most important arguments is Obama's inability to win the largest states, and an Obama win in Michigan -- particularly after Clinton broke 50% on January 15th -- would make it much more difficult for Clinton to put forward her big state edge.

Another interesting poll this morning -- also from Rasmussen -- tests the South Dakota presidential race:

• McCain beats Clinton 50% to 38%, and beat Obama 48% to 38%.
• Yesterday's SUSA poll of South Dakota had McCain up Obama by 4% and up Clinton by 12% as well.

A very Republican state that Bush won by overwhelming margins, South Dakota is much closer than anyone would expect in both of these polls.While it is very unlikely that either Democrat will end up within single-digits in South Dakota (and if they have a chance of winning here it probably means that they are on their way to routing McCain). But it does coincidence with a lot of evidence that the Mountain states -- usually among the most reliable for Republicans -- are flirting with Democrats this time around. SUSA showed Obama with a narrow lead in North Dakota and taking some electoral votes in Nebraska.

Finally, we have a few polls from congressional races:

• Rasmussen accompanies its presidential poll with a Senate survey (it's actually the other way around), and it confirms that Democratic Senator Johnson has very little to fear next year. He crushes both his (declared and potential) Republican opponents by significant margins and gets 62% and 63%.


• Meanwhile, Michigan pollster EPIC releases a survey from MI-07, where Democrats are confident they can get freshman Rep. Walberg in trouble. The poll shows Walberg leading Democrat Schauer 51% to 40%, but after a biography of both candidates is read the Democratic candidate edges out Walberg 49% to 48%.

Polls with biographies are obviously very shady, since no candidate gets to define himself in a vacuum, and no House candidate can possibly introduce himself to 100% of voters (not even close). The poll does show a baseline vulnerability for Walberg, but he does get above 50% in the first match-up, and that should reassure him a bit. But given the financial advantage the DCCC has over its counterpart this cycle, they are sure to test incumbents like Walberg and unless the RNCC can step in to help he is likely to see his numbers drop in the coming months.

IL-14 special election heats up, SD and NC Senate races do not

3 months after the special election in OH-05 unexpectedly saw a last-minute deluge of ads by the national committees, the special election in IL-14, former Speaker Hastert's district, is heating up. The election is set for March 8th, and while this is a red-leaning district Democrats believe they can take it from the GOP. An internal poll for the Foster campaign released earlier this week has the Democrat leading 45% to 41% for the GOP candidate, Oberweis -- and while an internal poll always has to be taken with a grain of salt it is the second internal that Foster is releasing without a response by Oberweis.

Now, in a sure sign that this race is indeed very competitive, the DCCC and NRCC have jumped in with advertisements of their own. The NRCC is spending $900,000 as of now, with the DCCC in with a bit more than $600,000. This is very significant, because the Republican committee is far behind Democrats in money. In fact, this sum represents a bit less than 1/6th of their total cash on hand at the end of January!

In December, Republicans ended up winning OH-05 on a comfortable score, but they had to spend millions to do so. And this illustrates the problem the GOP is facing in the coming months: There are many seats like OH-05 and IL-14 that could be competitive next year, especially since so many GOP congressmen are retiring. The DCCC has a lot of money to spend and will do so liberally, testing GOP strength left and right -- just as they did in OH-05 and now in IL-14. They want to expand the map and stretch the GOP resources. The NRCC is responding right now -- and it saved Latta in Ohio -- but it will not be able to do so everywhere in the fall. Democrats are hoping that this forces Republicans to defend the reddest seats in priority, leaving some of their most vulnerable districts undefended -- not to mention that the NRCC can hardly hope to spend any money trying to pick up Democratic-held seats if it has to defend places like IL-14.

Make sure to check my House ratings that I updated last Saturday. Since Saturday is often a low-criculation day, you might have missed it. IL-14 is rated as a toss-up.

• Recruitment in SD-Sen and NC-Sen

The news for Democrats is not so good, however, in North Carolina. The filing deadline passed yesterday and they have to settle for the two candidates they have had for a few months now, state Senator Kay Hagan and investment banker Jim Neal. Most polls have shown that sen. Elizabeth Dole is a weak incumbent who could be beatable with the right candidate, but it is unlikely that either Hagan or Neal will be able to give her that strong of a challenge. The DSCC is hopeful that they will prove to be strong candidates, and it is certainly possible -- after all, the DSCC has enough funds to weaken Dole and give an opening to their challenger -- but recruitment here has to be disappointing for Democrats.

In South Dakota, it's Republicans that are having recruitment problems. Senator Tim Johnson was for long considered to be a potential retirement, but there now is little doubt that he is running again and Republicans have not been able to find a strong challenger against him. Governor Rounds was rumored for a while but he is showing no indication of wanting to jump in. With the filing deadline fast approaching, former Lieutenant Governor Steve Kirby is rumored as a potential candidate, but it does not look like he would be a very strong one. For one, Kirby was in office only for 2 years until 1995 and he lost a variety of primaries since then. Not to mention that he is a more than controversial figure because of his involvement in transforming cadaver skin into cosmetic surgery products (as Kos's Markos is writing a lot about).

Now, the DSCC is releasing a poll that shows Johnson defeating Kirby... 70% to 19%. The poll also shows Johnson with a 72% approval rating. Sure, this is an internal poll but this kind of number does point to how difficult it would be for Republicans to unseat Johnson even with the right candidate, and how unlikely it is for them to get it competitive unless they get a first-tier candidate in (i.e. Gov. Rounds).

Morning diary: John Edwards strong in the general election

• Rasmussen finds Edwards strong nationally

Rasmussen has just released a national poll pitting John Edwards against John McCain and Mitt Romney, and finds the Democrat expanding the leads he had a month ago. Against McCain, Edwards leads 47% to 38%, while he beats Romney by a massive 50% to 34%. This is much better than both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton do against McCain, as they are both about tied with the Arizona Senator in Rasmussen polls.

Two days after the Philadelphia debate, that supposedly so hurt Hillary Clinton, it is useful to look at Rasmussen's tracking poll, which now has Clinton at 43%, followed by Obama at 21% and Edwards at 11% -- roughly what it was before the debate. So for now at least, the Hillary has stumbled storyline isn't confirmed by polls. Though it could still happen after a few more days of evolving media narrative.

• Senate news update

The Washington Post thinks it is now likely that Tom Udall jumps in the New Mexico Senate race, confirming information that I reported on Thursday. Meanwhile, Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish has announced she will definitely not run for Senate because she wants to stay in New Mexico, which ensures she is running for Governor in 2010 (and that she likely will have the field all to herself). Denish had also been heavily recruited by the DSCC who viewed her as much more competitive than Chavez, so the fact that she took herself out of consideration is further indication that the DSCC is confident that Udall will end up jumping in -- and starting off the race the favorite.

In other Senate news, Mount Blogmore gave hope to Republicans yesterday by reporting that Governor Rounds had visited the NRSC headquarters in Washington, which would imply he was thinking about jumping in the South Dakota Senate race against Democratic incumbent Tim Johnson. This would be amazing news for the GOP indeed, and surprising one at that since all indications were that Rounds was staying out this cycle. However, Rounds's camp said that he did absolutely not visit the NRSC, as reported by the blog who said he had. Rounds is likely not lying, but still something to keep an eye on.