3.16.2008

Sunday polls highlight McCain's strength

John McCain is improving his position in polls, as I already explained in my general election analysis just a few days ago. The latest surveys released today confirms that the GOP's position in the race to the White House is not as tough as road as it looked to be just a few weeks ago (though McCain will sill have to reverse an impressive number of indicators to stay competitive in the months ahead.

First come the national election polls, since Zogby released a survey that included... Ralph Nader:

  • Against Clinton, McCain is ahead 45% to 39%, with 6% for Ralph Nader who would get 15% of independents.
  • With Obama in the mix, the margin is similar, with McCain leading 44% to 39% for the Democrat and 5% for Ralph Nader.
This is the first poll that tested Nader's candidacy, and it suggests that the candidate's level of support could be closer to 2000 than 2004. But keep in mind that Democrats will throw as many procedural obstacles as they can in Nader's path, and his name will likely not appear in many states, thereby reducing his national number.

The Rasmussen tracking poll comes out with similar numbers, while Gallup's shows more mixed numbers:

  • McCain beats Clinton 46% to 43%, and he is ahead of Obama 47% to 43%.
  • In Gallup's poll, McCain and Clinton are tied at 46% but McCain beats Obama 47% to 44%.
Rasmussen also released a wave of state polls that show some appetizing options for the Arizona Senator:

  • In Florida, McCain is ahead of both Democrats: He beats Clinton 47% to 40% and is ahead of Obama 47% to 43%.
Add to this Rasmussen's polls from earlier this week: They showed McCain ahead of both Democrats in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan, and we get a picture of a soaring McCain in the most important of the November swing states, at least in Rasmussen's polls. Rasmussen also released two polls from the Northeast which show Democrats ahead in all four match-ups, but sometimes by smaller margins than they should be leading by

  • In Connecticut, Obama is ahead comfortably 50% to 38% but Clinton is leading 47% to 44%. The difference comes mainly from the male vote, which gives McCain a double-digit lead against Clinton but places Obama up by 4%.
  • In New York, Clinton is leading 50% to 38% and Obama is leading 51% to 38%. Both are very comfortable margins, but the fact that Democrats are barely crossing the 50% threshold does not look that good.
It remains to be seen whether McCain can put these blue states in play. Other polls taken in recent weeks -- starting with SUSA's 50 state tracking, show Democrats more in command in the Northeast than what transpires in the Rasmussen surveys. But after months in which Democrats were accustomed to putting the GOP in great difficulty in states like Kentucky and Virginia, these polls suggest that the playing field is becoming more balanced -- at least for as long as the Democratic candidates are busy running against each other.

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6 Comments:

  • Damn You Nader!!!!!!!

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 16 March, 2008 22:28  

  • Things are looking bad for dems, and the situation is going to get even more complicated to say the least,
    Great Democrats we managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of Victory.. again!

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 16 March, 2008 22:35  

  • I think Democrats need ignore the Presidential race to just start focusing on making sure they don't lose many seats in the House.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 16 March, 2008 22:50  

  • Personally I think you guys are pessismestic over the democrats chances. The primarly reason why McCain is doing so well is because Obama and Clinton are locked in a tight primary battle and thier respective supporters are not yet thinking of supporting the other candiate. Unless the primary becomes extremely nasty (the current state of affairs is mild in my opinion) look for the democratic candiate to get a boost in the polls against McCain when he or she becomes the nominee.

    On a second note, it seems like Nader is more popular now since Bush isn't on the ballot. Zogby is proof that he is a spoiler who only helps McCain and I really fear for Nader's life if he prevents the democrats from winning again.

    By Anonymous Jaxx Raxor, At 17 March, 2008 09:21  

  • Hillary won the Texas primary due to the GOP :

    Boston Globe: Many Voting For Clinton To Boost GOP
    For a party that loves to hate the Clintons, Republican voters have cast an awful lot of ballots lately for Senator Hillary Clinton: About 100,000 GOP loyalists voted for her in Ohio, 119,000 in Texas, and about 38,000 in Mississippi, exit polls show. A sudden change of heart? Hardly.

    You have to ask yourself why??

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 17 March, 2008 12:15  

  • Don't be faint of heart, people. It's only March and the GE campaign has not even started in earnest. We haven't even settled on our nominee yet. McCain hasn't even done any serious campaigning, just b.s. photo ops in Iraq. If The American people vote for a 3rd term for Bush (McCain), I will be totally shocked. The last 10 days have not been good for Obama or Clinton. Things will change for the better.

    By Anonymous stone621, At 18 March, 2008 01:10  

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