12.02.2007

Sunday round-up: Obama's Iowa endorsement, and a new national poll

  • Rasmussen polls some general election match-ups
Rasmussen just came out with national general election numbers pitting Barack Obama against four Republicans (though not Mike Huckabee, who pollsters should really start polling at this point given his shocking surge). Rasmussen conducted two separate surveys, so the numbers are from two different samples, relativizing the possibility of electability comparisons:

  • In the first sample, Barack Obama ties John McCain at 44% and leads Mitt Romney 48% to 39%.
  • In the second sample, Obama has a small edge against Rudy Giuliani 43% to 41% and has a stronger lead against Fred Thompson, 48% to 41%. These numbers are essentially the same as they were two weeks ago, and Giuliani's favorable rating is still under 50%.
Consider than in only seven-nine weeks we will stop having eight to twelve match-ups in every general election poll as the two nominees will have started emerging! For now, the only noteworthy thing here is that McCain's position as the strongest contender is remarkably consistent.

  • Iowa endorsement
In more good news, Barack Obama secured the endorsement of Des Moines Mayor Frank Cownie. The campaign is touting this as a "huge" endorsement. While that might be a bit of an exaggeration, there is no doubt this comes at an ideal time for Obama. With the latest Des Moines Register poll showing Obama taking the lead in the race, the trendlines are clearly bad for Hillary Clinton and the momentum Obama is starting to generate could quickly become unstoppable the way Iowa politics works. While no endorsement helps candidates that much in terms of actual votes it generates, but in helping to quicken Obama's surge and the positive buzz he is getting, this could be one more nail on Clinton's Iowa coffin.

  • Finding gubernatorial news, North Carolina edition
Meanwhile, gubernatorial races are being so quiet that I am going to start profiling some smaller news in an attempt to drum up interest in these races. Today, some curious inconsistencies reported by the Charlotte Observer in the North Carolina Democratic primary with candidates uncovering their opponents' massive distortions about their past.

On the one hand, State Treasurer Moore has accused Lieutenant Governor Perdue of "changing her birth date, offering varied descriptions of her doctoral degree depending on the audience, and describing herself as a coal miner's daughter when her father owned the mine." And now, Moore is being criticized for touting that he has "attended Harvard University" when he took one non-competitive summer course.

2 Comments:

  • It might be a little misleading to say that "the campaign is touting" the Frank Crownie endorsement of Obama as 'huge.'

    As far as I know, one Iowa blogger who does not work for the Obama campaign somehow learned that the endorsement was pending and teased it on Saturday on his blog.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 02 December, 2007 19:01  

  • "For now, the only noteworthy thing here is that McCain's position as the strongest contender is remarkably consistent."

    And McCain has almost no chance of winning. Conventional Wisdom says there only three tickets out of Iowa, and he's in a three-way fight for fourth place. (Joementum territory.)

    Conventional wisdom also says there are two tickets out of New Hampshire. He could finish second, but not after a fourth place finish in Iowa.

    And he doesn't have the money to make up any lost ground should he stumble.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 02 December, 2007 22:47  

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