Democrats drown in mud-singling, but still muster national leads

The Democratic primary has now reached fever pitch with barely a day going by without Clinton and Obama engaging in some heated back-and-forth. For the past week, it has been Clinton going on the offensive, sensing that what once seemed to be an inevitable ride to the nomination has now become a very rocky road that could very well end in a crushing defeat if she doesn't fix things very soon.

The charges that are going back and forth have often become quite silly. Clinton unearthed reports that Obama had written an essay about how he would like to be president when he was in kindergarten to show that Obama was more ambitious than he says he was, but under the ridicule that attack generated Mark Penn is now backtracking saying that it was only meant as a joke.

More seriously, the Clinton campaign is now accusing Obama of dirty tricks after several people have stepped forward reporting that they have gotten some aggressive phone calls from Obama's campaign that have turned very negative. But as most commentators have already pointed out, this hardly amounts to a dirty trick given what is happening right now on the GOP side (push polls linked to a pro-Huckabee group, nasty fliers, etc).

Meanwhile, the first negative ad is set to run in Iowa attacking Clinton by the Democratic Courage PAC that is not affiliated to any campaign (though the planners appear to be Edwards supporters). The PAC does not appear to have money to air this ad much, but they are hoping the media shows it and allows them to raise some money.

All in all, expect fireworks in the next few weeks, with all shots aimed at Hillary Clinton. It is no wonder she has been dropping in most polls -- and her nomination has never looked so precarious as it does today.

• NPR debate: Obama gets away with his weakness on Iran
  

Today also featured the NPR radio debate, which was only devoted to three issues for two hours: Iran, immigration and China. The first two are among Clinton's weakest issue, Iran for obvious reasons and immigration because of the confusion that surrounded the driving licenses issue during the Philadelphia debate in late October. Clinton got repeatedly hit on the Iran issue, but what is certainly very frustrating whenever Iran comes up is that Obama gets away with his own very weak position on this issue. Take a look at the exchange:

Edwards blasted Clinton for labeling the Revolutionary Guard a terrorist group: "Declaring a military group sponsored by the state of Iran a terrorist organization, that’s supposed to be diplomacy?" But Obama agrees with this labeling -- he cosponsored a bill saying just that last April. What Obama objects to in the Kyl-Lieberman amendment is saying that Iran is involved in Iraq, but he of course does not rush to Clinton's defense when she is beign attacked on the labeling front.

And five minutes later, it is Obama's turn to attack: "There was another problem with the resolution that we haven’t spoken about, and that was that it suggested that we should structure in some way our forces in Iraq with the goal of blunting Iranian influence in Iraq." Notice that the "there was another problem" suggests that he agrees with Edwards on the first one, when he does not at all. But Clinton's status as the person to bring down has allowed Obama to get away with this weak attempt to find some middle ground.

• LA Times/Bloomberg has Huckabee surging, Clinton holding on

The LA Times and Bloomberg latest poll out this evening gives us some primary and general election numbers:

• In the general election, Clinton and Obama defeat Giuliani and Romney. Against the former, Clinton leads 46-42 and Obama 44-39. Against the latter, it's 47-39 for Clinton and 45-33 for Obama.
• Huckabee is on fire in the GOP primary race, while Romney has fallen to single digits: Giuliani is at 23%, with Huckabee at 17%, Thompson at 14%, McCain at 11% and Romney at 9%.
• Meanwhile among Democrats Clinton holds her own at 45%, versus Obama's 21% and Edwards's 11%.

The Republican numbers are very similar to the ones we saw from Gallup yesterday, though Clinton is much stronger here than she was in Gallup or in Rasmussen where she slipped under 40%. Naturally, these national polls have little practical poll at this point but they do offer an indication of which candidate has momentum.