And the plot thickens: New early-state polls favor Clinton

Just when most polls from Iowa and from New Hampshire had started displaying some remarkable consistency (Clinton losing her lead in Iowa and slipping into single-digits in New Hampshire), a wave of new early state polls today contradicts that storyline.

Pew came out with three polls from the Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina (at what point will Nevada polls start coming? Nevada votes a week before South Carolina, after all):

• In Iowa, Clinton is up with a larger-than-usual 31%. Obama is at 26% and Edwards drops to one of his lowest totals at 19%. Richardson stays in double digits, at 10%.
• In New Hampshire, Clinton's lead by a margin reminescent of her September/October leads: 38% to Obama's 19% and Edwards's 15%. Richardson gets 10%.
• In South Carolina, Clinton gets 45%, followed by Obama at 31% and Edwards 10%.

Iowa State University also came out with a poll today, and it confirms the findings of Pew -- Clinton remains very viable in the state:

• Clinton gets 31%, followed by Edwards at 24% and Obama at 20%.
• Among Republicans, Romney stays on top at 25%, followed by Huckabee at 22%, Giuliani at 16%, Thompson at 9% and McCain at 8%.

Obviously, these polls by themselves don't point to a Clinton comeback. For one, the Pew poll was taken from November 7th to the 25th, muddying the results. Furthermore, there still remains a big problem for Hillary: She lags against both her opponents in the Pew poll when voters are asked their "second choice," something that can obviously play a big role in the caucuses.

Yet, this is great news for Clinton: The media was already writing her obituary in Iowa, and the storyline was all about her free fall and her unraveling. It's hard for pundits to continue saying that with these two new polls. All in all, Iowa is very hard to poll given the difficulty of pinning down an accurate turnout model; and most leads we have seen have been way within of the margin of error. Not to mention how quickly momentum builds in the state. Odds are we will be in for a huge surprise come January 3rd -- and I would not be surprised if one of the three frontrunners won by a very large margin.