Congressional news: Democrats trying to make the most of special elections

• Nine more days in OH-05

Do Democrats actually have a chance to pick-up OH-05 in a special election scheduled in nine days, on December 11th? They sure seem to believe they do! The DCCC has just made a $141,000 ad buy in the district, a significant amount signaling they are ready to play. And they would presumably not have made such a move without some internal polling showing the district potentially vulnerable.

Republican Bob Latta was badly bruised during the GOP primary which ended up being very nasty with the Club for Growth hammering Latta for not being conservative enough. But the district is very Republican: Bush got 61% here in 2004, making it very tough territory for any Democrat. An internal GOP poll released last week has Latta up on Democrat Robin Weirauch 50% to 36%, a significant but not overwhelming margin.

Yet, OH-05 also knows how to vote Democratic. In 2006, both Ted Strickland and Sharrod Brown carried the district on their way to become governor and senator. And Democrats did win a few seats that were as conservative in the 2006 midterms. Now, Strickland is campaigning with Weirauch and putting his political capital on the line.

The NRCC is likely to follow with its own ad buy (they cannot possibly let the DCCC hammer Latta without responding) but don't forget this key factor: The NRCC is broke, while the DCCC is flooded with cash. Democrats can afford to contest such races that look unlikely, but by pushing Republicans to spend and spend, they will push them more into debt.

And there are no other elections taking place now. But in a year, when the DCCC will buy ad time left and right, the NRCC will not be able to follow, allowing Democrats to push their advantage in many districts with very little response.

All in all, Democrats are still very unlikely to win this seat, but they are proving how much of an advantage they have in this cycle merely by forcing the NRCC to compete here.

• Mississippi update

We are still waiting to see the timing of Trent Lott's resignation to assess what the date of the special election should be. Until Lott effectively bows out, we will also not know who Governor Barbour will choose to replace Lott until the special election. There was some speculation last week that Barbour might go for a bench warmer who would not run in the special election to fill the rest of Lott's term. This would obviously be great news for Democrats.

Well, Robert Novak reports today that this is very unlikely: "Barbour feels Mississippi's tradition is for U.S. senators holding their seats for many years, not temporary seat warmers." (Apparently Mississippi has only had 4 senators over 64 years who have served 35, 42 and 19 (Lott) years, with Cochran now in his 29th year.)