Huckabee out of control, reaches 39% in Iowa -- and the Club for Growth starts attacking him

A new Newswek poll of Iowa was just released tonight -- and it is more shocking than anyone we have seen so far all year in the 2008 presidential race. My jaw dropped when I see it, and here it is without further comment:

• Huckabee gets 39%, more than twice Romney's 17%. Thompson gets 10%, Giuliani 9% and McCain 6%.


• In the Democratic race, Obama is up 35% to Clinton's 29%. Edwards is way down at 21%. (Some news outlet are reporting that Clinton is at 30%, Obama at 29% and Edwards at 21% -- those are the registered voter numbers. The former set of numbers are among likely voters, a much more important voter universe to poll in Iowa).
• Also today, the Edwards campaign released an internal poll of Iowa that has Clinton at 27%, Edwards at 24%, and Obama at 22%.

I will pass commenting on the Democratic numbers at this point, since these numbers don't contradict the long analysis posted earlier today. And also because of the seismic shift that is happening in the Republican race.

Let's get some perspective on this. Two weeks ago, Romney was riding high in the 30s, and Huckabee was in a toss-up for second with Thomspon and Giuliani in the mid-teens. And that situation had been holding for months, as Romney had first emerged to be in the lead sometime in the spring. In the space of two weeks, Huckabee tied Romney, then took the lead, and is now 22% ahead of him! This proves beyond anything else that has happened so far in the race just how dissatisfied the Republican base was with their candidates -- and how they were ready to give themselves remotely looking like a "pure conservative," whatever that means. This also shows just how huge an opening Fred Thompson squandered earlier this year.

Does Romney have any chance to survive this? The paradox is... this might be somewhat good for him. If he is going to lose Iowa (which now appears pretty much a sure thing unless the Huckabee buble suddenly burst), he might as well make it seem expected. If everyone now expects Huckabee to win Iowa, it might not be that huge a storyline when he actually does. It would be big, don't get me wrong, but it would not make Romney collapse in NH the way Dean collapsed four years ago. So maybe -- just maybe -- Romney could hold on to some sort of lead in NH. After all, Giuliani and McCain are unlikely to get any sort of good news out of Iowa. And NH seems to be the one state in which Huckabee isn't getting much of a boost.

But this argument should not be overstated. Ultimately, this proves that Romney's support was very very weak (just as the support for all other candidates) -- and his support in New Hampshire is most probably as fragile as the one in Iowa. Republican voters were not excited about any of their candidates, and they now have found someone they are excited about. And it's going to be very hard to stop Huckabee since he now has taken the lead in national polls and even in South Carolina. Also, Romney's strategy was based on a double-win in Iowa and New Hampshire to offset Giuliani (and now Huckabee's) national advantage. Would New Hampshire be enough? I'm not convinced.

Also, the media would certainly point out that this race was Romney's to lose for months, and will surely campaign the millions Romney spent and the fraction of that Huckabee spent here. That will not be a favorable comparison at all... and it will be hard for Romney to dismiss this as an expected result. He will try very hard, certainly. And the sad part is, the way the story of the Iowa results is told if Huckabee wins will basically be out of the hands of voters or of the campaigns -- the media will get to decide how they will present this, and whether they will kill Romney's campaign like they killed Howard Dean's!

At least, all eyes wil be turned towards Huckabee in the next three weeks, and that he will have to sutain increasing amounts of scrutinity. Yesterday they were Thompson's mailers out yesterday blasting Huckabee for being Clintonestque on taxes.

The Club for Growth came out with an ad today that is set to run in Iowa as well as on Fox News blasting Huckabee for his support of tax increase. The one minute video is an excerpts from a 2003 speech Huckabee gave as governor of Arkansas in which he tells the legislature to send him a tax inrease of mostly any tax -- and he elaborates a long list. Damaging stuff, but not enough to stop this stunning momentum. Check out the ad yourself here.