Will the DCCC regret not doing more in OH-05?

Hardly a day has passed since the DCCC made OH-05's special election competitive last Sunday by buying lots of air time without the GOP sending in massive amounts of money to help their candidate Bob Latta. By all accounts, this race is very close and rumors of internal polls within the margin of error are circulating. And there is no way the already ruined GOP would be spending this much money or that high-profile Democrats like Governor Ted Strickland would be visiting the district if the race was not a complete toss-up.

OH-05 is a very Republican district and one in which Bob Latta was not supposed to have any trouble. Bush won here by 22% in 2004, and Robin Weirauch had twice already. But things are very competitive and Republicans are in a state of panic: They cannot afford to lose such a red district. It would be a PR nightmare, to say the least.

So the NRCC keeps on sending in money in the district: Its total expenditures are now standing at $420,000. But the DCCC has stopped doing much here after it aired its initial rush of ads at the beginning of last week and its total spending starts at $240,000. This difference is heightened by the fact that Bob Latta personally raised a lot of money at the end of last week (about $150,000 over two days, and from major Republican figures like Rep. Chabot, Rep. Tiberi or Rep. Shays), far outpacing Robin Weirauch.

The DCCC has about $28 million more in the bank than the NRCC, so it would not be a huge investment for them to at least keep up with the NRCC and play more ads than they have. At least credit to them for jumping in in the first place but in a district like OH-05 Democrats really need any break they can get and the mailers, phone banks and ads the GOP has been organizing for a week will likely swamp the Democratic effort.

Granted, it is already more than amazing for Democrats to have forced the low-on-cash Republican committee to spend this much money on a seat it should not have had any trouble holding. And this will be a great strategy for them to use next year: Start running some ads in a lot of seats that aren't that vulnerable and see what happens. The GOP can respond now, but they won't have the resources to respond to everything next fall.

The election starts in less than 24 hours. If Weirauch wins, it would be a huge victory for Democrats which would mean that things really have not changed since 2006; and if she comes within a few points, that would obviously still be a great showing. But it could open the door to criticism that the DCCC could have done slightly more.