Kentucky Senate race attracting increasing attention
Who would have thought that we would have more to report about the Kentucky Senate seat than any other in the beginning of November? A few weeks ago, Mitch McConnell's seat was nowhere on the radar screen. A couple of bad polls and a Republican debacle in the off-year elections later, and things have changed: Democrats now look certain to compete in Kentucky.
First, they need a candidate. Attorney General Stumbo had been rumored to be jumping in for months, but the DSCC is now apparently pressuring state Auditor Crit Luallen to jump in. A grassroots draft movement has started being organized as well. Luallen has not made her intentions clear, though her last public comments would indicate that she is giving the race a very serious look.
The polls we have seen up to now did not show a major difference between Stumbo and Luallen's numbers when matched-up against McConnell (both trailed by single-digits, and kept the incumbent below 50%), so it would be interesting to know why Schumer is pushing Luallen now rather than Stumbo.
Meanwhile, things could get even more tricky for McConnell because of his own party. The GOP primary for governor got pretty nasty last year and the camp of Governor Fletcher (who was ousted last week) is still angry at McConnell for abandoning Fletcher. And Larry Forgy, the 1995 GOP nominee for Governor, is fuming over McConnell's "betrayal." He told the Hill last week that he was so furious he was considering an independent run against McConnell! Forgy said, "The only difference between that and cannibals is that cannibals normally don’t eat their friends."
Needless to say, a Forgy candidacy would drain lots of votes away from McConnell -- and would play right in the hands of the Democratic nominee. In what could very well be a very tight election, any percentage points that Forgy would take from McConnell would go a long way towards ensuring a Democratic pick-up.
That's for the Democratic optimism. They still have a long way to go to make this a toss-up race though. For one, McConnell is amassing massive amounts of cash -- already $7 millions raised! He is the Minoriy Leader, so he will have the whole Republican machine supporting him, and will be the GOP's number 1 priority. McConnell has already started to run ads to boost his sagging numbers -- yes, that is a sign of weakness, but he will sure try to correct that weakness as fast as he can. And Democrats don't even have a candidate yet who can start fundraising, hit McConnell, and run ads in turn.
First, they need a candidate. Attorney General Stumbo had been rumored to be jumping in for months, but the DSCC is now apparently pressuring state Auditor Crit Luallen to jump in. A grassroots draft movement has started being organized as well. Luallen has not made her intentions clear, though her last public comments would indicate that she is giving the race a very serious look.
The polls we have seen up to now did not show a major difference between Stumbo and Luallen's numbers when matched-up against McConnell (both trailed by single-digits, and kept the incumbent below 50%), so it would be interesting to know why Schumer is pushing Luallen now rather than Stumbo.
Meanwhile, things could get even more tricky for McConnell because of his own party. The GOP primary for governor got pretty nasty last year and the camp of Governor Fletcher (who was ousted last week) is still angry at McConnell for abandoning Fletcher. And Larry Forgy, the 1995 GOP nominee for Governor, is fuming over McConnell's "betrayal." He told the Hill last week that he was so furious he was considering an independent run against McConnell! Forgy said, "The only difference between that and cannibals is that cannibals normally don’t eat their friends."
Needless to say, a Forgy candidacy would drain lots of votes away from McConnell -- and would play right in the hands of the Democratic nominee. In what could very well be a very tight election, any percentage points that Forgy would take from McConnell would go a long way towards ensuring a Democratic pick-up.
That's for the Democratic optimism. They still have a long way to go to make this a toss-up race though. For one, McConnell is amassing massive amounts of cash -- already $7 millions raised! He is the Minoriy Leader, so he will have the whole Republican machine supporting him, and will be the GOP's number 1 priority. McConnell has already started to run ads to boost his sagging numbers -- yes, that is a sign of weakness, but he will sure try to correct that weakness as fast as he can. And Democrats don't even have a candidate yet who can start fundraising, hit McConnell, and run ads in turn.
posted by Taniel at
7:24 PM
2 Comments:
If the Democrats mere force McConnell to spend his own money, that's funds that he can't give to the national committee, which would therefore hurt a lot of other races.
It's one more state they need to defend, which spreads the already thin resources thinner.
Either that, or the Republicans give up on even more seats and build a firewall around some of the second tier seats.
By
Anonymous, At
12 November, 2007 20:11
I agree with C.S. Stowbridge. It is unlikely that the Dems will beat McConnell, but if he is forced to play defense in his home state, they have less resources to go around. This could have implications elsewhere given the RSCC lags behind the DSCC in fundraising.
By
Unknown, At
13 November, 2007 02:09
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