Sunday polls: Kentucky is still bluer than expected

• Can Democrats manage a Kentucky sweep?

It would have seemed unthinkable a few months ago that Kentucky should be a battleground in 2008. But that is the situation we are getting at today, with poll after poll showing Democrats stronger than expected in the state. Today, Rasmussen came out with a new state poll of the senatorial, gubernatorial and presidential race:

• The gubernatorial election is two days away (!), and Rasmussen confirms that Fletcher has no hope of winning another term. Beshear is beating him 54% to 39%, which is actually a smaller margin than other polls have shown in the past few weeks! Fletcher has passed 40% in only one poll in the past few months, and that is as much as you need to know...
• In the senatorial election, here is another poll showing Mitch McConnell much more vulnerable next November than he is supposed to be. A poll last month showed him under 50% and leading Democrats by single-digits... and Rasmussen has similar findings: Mitch McConnell is ahead of Attorney General Greg Stumbo 48% to 41%, and ahead of state Auditor Crit Luallen 49% to 39%. Neither Democrats has declared for the race, but both are taking a serious look at it -- and you can be sure the DSCC will not take no for an answer after such polls.
• In the presidential race, the numbers are not as good as last month's SUSA survey in which Clinton beat Rudy Giuliani, but they are still great for Democrats. Here is a state that Bush won by 20 points in 2004, and where Democrats are competitive. Rasmussen pitted Rudy Giuliani against Clinton, finding him leading 47% to 41%, while Fred Thompson edged Barack Obama 44% to 43%.

These numbers wonderfully express how toxic Kentucky has become for Republicans. Not only do they confirm other surveys taken by other polling groups, but they also confirm each other, demonstrating how this once reliable red state has become a solid purple.

• Newsweek polls the country

Meanwhile, Newsweek just released a new national poll of primary and general election contests:

• The Democratic primary is same as usual, but it was taken after Tuesday's debate -- suggesting the bad press Clinton got did not (yet) affect her numbers. She leads with 43% against 24% for Obama and 12% for Edwards.
• The Republican primary is also not at all surprising, with Rudy Giuliani ahead with 30%, ahead of the pack of Thompson (15%), McCain (14%), Romney (12%) and Huckabee (7%).
• The Clinton-Giuliani match-up sees Hillary leading 49% to 45% -- and crushing Rudy in 2004 blue states 54% to 40% (Rudy leads in 2004 red states by a more pale 51% to 44%). Given that Rudy's main electability argument is that he will put the blue states in play by contesting in places like PA, CT, NJ and CA, this is probably not a poll he likes to see.