More Senate news: Dole on the verge of vulnerability, and the meaning of Udall's moves
Public Policy Polling has been releasing a lot of polls of the North Carolina Senate race. A few days after Jim Neal jumped in the race, it showed Dole with a 47-32 lead, comfortable but noticeably under 50%. Now that the first elected official, state Senator Kay Hagan, is in the race, Public Policy Polling has a new poll out: It shows Elizabeth Dole leading Kay Hagan 46% to 33%. Also, Dole's approval rating is at a low 46%.
These are definitely weak numbers for a very well known incumbent running against an unknown opponent, and any incumbent consistently under 50% like Dole is vulnerable. However, (1) the Democrats have not yet truly made the race competitive, and it looks like it's going to depend on how willing they are to commit resources and attention to North Carolina. (2) Neal and Hagan poll roughly at the same level, so no big gain for Democrats in the recruitment of Hagan. Democrats readily acknowledge that Hagan is mainly unknown, but they still consider her a better candidate in that she has electoral and political experience; Neal's advantage is that he is wealthy and can self-fund a campaign, with all the problems that buying your way to office creates.
Meanwhile, Heath Haussamen reviews the consequences of Udall's reconsidering the New Mexico Senate race. He assesses that Udall is very likely to make a run at this point, and that he probably would not have made such a public show of his reconsidering unless he was leaning towards running. Also, Haussamen points out that Udall's daughter is high-up in the Richardson campaign -- which confirms that Udall running ensures that Richardson has clearly stated he is not running whatever happens in his presidential run. Also, Udall jumping in the race would mean that Lieutenant Governor would not run for Senate, and that she would have a clear path to the nomination for Governor in 2010 -- the job she's always wanted in the first place.
And let's take a moment to consider how much shuffle is taking place in New Mexico in so few weeks, with all three representatives retiring from the House to run after the same Senate seat. Two out of three will be left out of a job soon, and this also means that there will be so much movement in down-the-ballot races as well, as there will be a rush towards the House seats, and so on.
Overall, Democrats are starting to recover from the rough patch of Senate news they had last week, a patch that culminated in Bob Kerrey's decision to not run in Nebraska, which made a takeover very unlikely. Add to this the speculation over Cochran's retirement, and the senate gods are smiling to Democrats again.
These are definitely weak numbers for a very well known incumbent running against an unknown opponent, and any incumbent consistently under 50% like Dole is vulnerable. However, (1) the Democrats have not yet truly made the race competitive, and it looks like it's going to depend on how willing they are to commit resources and attention to North Carolina. (2) Neal and Hagan poll roughly at the same level, so no big gain for Democrats in the recruitment of Hagan. Democrats readily acknowledge that Hagan is mainly unknown, but they still consider her a better candidate in that she has electoral and political experience; Neal's advantage is that he is wealthy and can self-fund a campaign, with all the problems that buying your way to office creates.
Meanwhile, Heath Haussamen reviews the consequences of Udall's reconsidering the New Mexico Senate race. He assesses that Udall is very likely to make a run at this point, and that he probably would not have made such a public show of his reconsidering unless he was leaning towards running. Also, Haussamen points out that Udall's daughter is high-up in the Richardson campaign -- which confirms that Udall running ensures that Richardson has clearly stated he is not running whatever happens in his presidential run. Also, Udall jumping in the race would mean that Lieutenant Governor would not run for Senate, and that she would have a clear path to the nomination for Governor in 2010 -- the job she's always wanted in the first place.
And let's take a moment to consider how much shuffle is taking place in New Mexico in so few weeks, with all three representatives retiring from the House to run after the same Senate seat. Two out of three will be left out of a job soon, and this also means that there will be so much movement in down-the-ballot races as well, as there will be a rush towards the House seats, and so on.
Overall, Democrats are starting to recover from the rough patch of Senate news they had last week, a patch that culminated in Bob Kerrey's decision to not run in Nebraska, which made a takeover very unlikely. Add to this the speculation over Cochran's retirement, and the senate gods are smiling to Democrats again.
posted by Taniel at
11:27 PM
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