Morning polls: Is Pennsylvania no longer swinging?

• South Carolina primary

Once upon a time, South Carolina was Hillary's toughest state, the one in which she was threatened by both Obama's appeal to African-American voters and by Edwards's native son status. That was truly a long time ago, as Clinton has built a solid lead in most SC polls in recent months. Today, a new poll by the University of Winthrop has Hillary Clinton ahead with 33%, against 23% for Obama. Edwards, who won the 2004 SC primary, is a distant third at 9.6%. This is small enough of difference that an Iowa stumble for Clinton could definitely make South Carolina very competitive, but it is a testament to how much Clinton has solidified her frontrunner status that she has become the favorite here.

Republicans are stuck in a three-way tie: Thompson is at 18%, while Romney and Giuliani are at 16,5%, far ahead of McCain 9%. This does not really confirm the last ARG poll that had Romney ahead by 6% against Giuliani, but it is still a sure sign that Romney's candidacy is no longer dead in the state. A few months ago, SC was the one early state in which Romney was having no success, which was getting his campaign worried that he would get stuck here even with Iowa and New Hampshire wins. They are now very happy to be in such a three-way tie, and don't need to be ahead like in the ARG poll: If Romney wins Iowa and New Hampshire (and he needs to anyway to have any chance), he will be in a strong position in South Carolina by building on his momentum. And can Romney be stopped if he wins the three early states?

This poll is also a sign of Fred Thompson's fundamental weakness. He has made very little happen since he jumped in the race last month, and South Carolina was supposed to be his strongest state. He is likely to post awful numbers in New Hampshire, and perhaps in Iowa, so does he have any chance of boosting himself in South Carolina if he can't even muster a lead now?

• Has Pennsylvania turned safe blue?
  

Rasmussen is out with a new poll from Pennsylvania, and the results are amazing for Hillary Clinton. Both Gore and Clinton won Pennsylvania, but by extremely reduced margins, and PA is one of the "big three" of swing states, along with Ohio and Florida. But if the new poll is to be believed, Pennsylvania might no longer be swinging:

• John McCain runs the closest to Clinton, but trails by double digits: 48% to 38%.
• Clinton crosses 50% against all other Republicans: 52% to 39% against Giuliani, 52% to 36% against Thompson, and 54% to 31% against Huckabee. Very weirdly, Rasmussen did not poll Romney just like it did not in Maryland.
• And in one more great finding for the Clinton campaign, her favorability rating is the highest of all candidates at 57%.
  

Democrats would love to know that Pennsylvania is in the bag in 2008 given how much time and money they had to devote here in 2004 and 2000. In fact, there was a time during Kerry-Bush that PA seemed redder than Ohio! Having the state's 21 electoral votes uncontested would be a great boost for the Democratic campaign -- and it does seem like Pennsylvania is drifting blue. In 2006, it was one of the states that had the biggest Democratic waves, with 4 House seats switching over.

Also, notice that PA is one of the states Giuliani is confident he will put in play: It is a state in which Democrats have used social conservatism to scare away suburban voters from Republicans, and Rudy believes he is the ideal candidate to win back Pennsylvania. The poll suggest he is not even the strongest Republican.