GOP favored in two special House elections in December

There will be two special elections for House districts on December 11th, to fill two seats left vacant by the death of their representative. Both districts were held by the GOP, and both are very conservative areas. Both parties chose their nominees over the past few days.

• VA-01: The nominees for this seat, left vacant by the death of Rep. Davis, were selected yesterday at a special convention, not through a primary. Democrats settled on Iraq War veteran Philip Forgit. Republicans had a crazy process with six rounds of balloting, each of which eliminated at least one candidate. The candidate of the Club for Growth, conservative Paul Jost, led throughout to be shoked in the last round by state Delegate Rob Wittman, who appears to be a bit less conservative than Jost (you can review the GOP action here, at the Shad Plank). The district is very Republican: It voted for Bush by 60% in 2004. Democrats believed they had an outside chance to make a run here if the GOP nominated an extremist far-right candidate, but that does not appear to have happened.
• OH-05: This district is even more Republican than VA-01, as Bush got 61% of the vote in 2004 (it opened up after the death of Rep. Paul Gillmor earlier this fall). But Democrats see slightly more of an opening here because of how bloody the Republican primary ended up being. Here also, the Club for Growth candidate, state Senator Buehrer, lost, to state Rep. Bob Latta. The two Republicans (and the Club for Growth) blasted nasty ads at each other, and Latta emerged the victor 44% to 40% only. Democrats settled on Robin Weirauch who was also the Democratic candidate in the district in 2004 and 2006. She received 43% of the vote in 2006, a decent showing, and a vast improvement on the 33% she received in 2004. Under the right conditions, something might happen here for Democrats -- but they face very difficult conditions.

Remember, however, what happened in previous special elections this past few years: Democrats were a few points away from snatching very conservative OH-02 and CA-50 in 2004 and 2005, while Republicans were unexpectedly competitive in MA-05 only a few weeks ago. Special elections can be unpredictable because of low turn-out, the fact that they are open seats and that national parties tend to play in them more than they naturally would because there is no other election happening. Ohio and Virginia are among the states that are moving the most away from the GOP, so Democrats do have an outside chance in both VA-01 and OH-05. But until further indication that the DCCC is moving in or that things are tightening up, count both seats safe for the GOP.