Make it three: Clinton sliding and Romney climbing in yet another New Hampshire poll

The Boston Globe released the third New Hampshire poll of the week, after Rasmussen and Marist, and we can now say that there is a sure trend, as all three polls have the same finding in both the Democratic and Republican primary: Hillary Clinton is slipping, and Mitt Romney is expanding his lead:

• On the Democratic side, Clinton leads with 35% versus 21% for Obama and 15% for Edwards. Richardson gets 10%. A month ago, it was 43% to 20%, so Clinton's lead is down by 9%.
• The internal numbers are also very similar to what we saw yesterday: Clinton massively leads among female voters, with 40% -- Obama will have to cut into that if he wants to have any chance of winning New Hampshire. She also has a gigantic advantage among the less educated voters. Among respondents with only a high school education or less, she leads 54% to 9% for Obama.
• The poll also has further confirmation that Clinton's support is the strongest. Among those who have definitely decided, she leads 52% to 26%.

Hillary's slide is a bit less dramatic here than in Marist or Rasmussen, but it is still significant, especially because it confirms everything else we have seen lately. Hillary's campaign is down, but it is telling that she is still up in mid-double digits. It will be hard for Obama and Edwards to get her down further until they hurt her among the groups she is the strongest in: Women, lower income voters. Hillary shows little sign of weakening there.

The Republican numbers are also very interesting. Rasmussen, Marist AND the Boston Globe had Romney's lead shrinking in October, and Giuliani moving in a tie for first place. This week, all three of the polls have Romney expanding his lead and moving back into a comfortable first-place position. Also, this poll confirms what we have seen over and over again: Fred Thompson is nowhere in New Hampshire, and if this is confirmed at the polls he will likely see his candidacy killed as early as January 8th:

• In this poll, Mitt Romney leads 32%. Giuliani and McCain are competing for second place, 20% to 17%. Ron Paul once again comes in at 7%, in fourth place, ahead of Mike Huckabee at 5%. While the Boston Globe polled Thompson individually, they did not include his percentage and grouped him among "others" at 6%. This means that he got less than Huckabee's 5%.
• Interesting internals: There is no gender gap, but there is a religious one. Romney leads 37-14 among those who attend service every week, while Giuliani leads 29-21 among those who never go to Church. A worrisome result for Romney: His support is not particularly strong, as he leads 29-24 among the rare voters that have definitely made up their mind.
• In a final insult to Thompson, the Boston Globe asked respondents who is the "GOP candidate they are the least likely to vote for" among the Big Four. Thompson comes in first at 43%...

Though Romney's support is weak, it has held steady for month, and Giuliani will likely not benefit from an Iowa boost that could propell him into first place. The most interesting question out of New Hampshire right now is whether Thompson will hae a decent enough showing for the press not to pressure him to withdraw and pronounce him dead.

• Rasmussen's new national poll
  

Two days after showing Hillary expanding her lead against Rudy Giuliani to six points, Rasmussen today has McCain ahead of Clinton nationally for the first time since May. He is up 47% to 45%. Mitt Romney also narrowly improves his standing, only down 47% to 42% in the latest installment. Overall, the Rasmussen results still show the Democratic candidates ahead of the Republicans -- with a few exceptions like this one.