Morning polls: It all comes down to Florida

• Clinton leads in Florida

Survey USA came out with a new poll from Florida moments ago, and it has good news for Democrats:

• John McCain runs closest to Hillary, losing 49% to 46%. Rudy Giuliani has similar numbers, trailing 49% to 45%.
• Hillary leads 53% to 43% against Fred Thompson, 55% to 40% against Mitt Romney, 55% to 39% against Mike Huckabee, and 54% to 36% against Ron Paul.

Last month's FL poll had Clinton ahead by similar numbers, but showed surprisingly weak results for Obama and John Edwards (who both trailed significantly Giuliani), suggesting that there is something about Clinton that Floridians like more than we expect. Today's poll confirms this since a Gore-Giuliani matchup would see the Republican ahead by a point. This poll contradicts last week's Quinnipiac poll that had Democrats going down slightly because of the whole primary calendar mess. It goes without saying that if Democrats win Florida next November, they will have done most of the work towards reclaiming the White House.

• New Rasmussen general election poll

Except for yesterday's Pew poll, most recent general election surveys have shown Republican on the rise. For example in yesterday's Quinnipiac poll. Once ahead in all 12 Rasmussen national match-ups, the three major Democratic candidates went to losing 3 in recent updates -- and we can today add a fourth. The latest Rasmussen numbers on Obama-Giuliani and Obama-Thompson match-ups have the Republicans rising significantly: Giuliani trailed Obama by 5 two weeks ago, he now leads by 45-43. Thompson trailed by 7, he is now one point behind: 44-43. This might seem like statistical noise, but most polls have been consistent in showing a recent tightening.