ARG polls the early states: Romney and Clinton on top of the world

American Research Group just released its monthly wave of early state polls (IA, NH and SC) for both the Democratic and Republican sides. As always, plenty to look at.

• Democrats

A few hours from the debate, these numbers provide a useful overview of where the race stands. And there is no surprise: Hillary Clinton dominates the race.

• In Iowa, Clinton leads 32% to 22% for Barack Obama. Edwards is continuing his slow decline, coming in at 15%. This is the lowest Edwards has been in in the 11 surveys since December 2006. A month ago, Clinton led 30% to Obama's 24% and Edwards 19%. Richardson is at 7% (down from 10%) and Biden climbs at 5%!
• In New Hampshire, the numbers are unchanged since September. Clinton comes in with 40%, far ahead of Obama's 22% and Edwards's 10%. Richardson goes down to 5%, his lowest level since April.
• In South Carolina, Clinton is more dominant than she has ever been. Last month, she led 41% to 30%. Today, she is still at 41% but Obama is down at 19%, tied with Edwards's 18%. Here too Biden shows some movement, moving up to 6%. Among African-American voters, Clinton is ahead of Obama 39% to 30%.

Could things be any better for Hillary Clinton? Not only is she building big enough leads in New Hampshire and in South Carolina to survive a stumble in Iowa... but she is expanding her Iowa lead, and is coming in consistently ahead in Iowa surveys. Her opponents will have to find a way to get those numbers down in the early states. They are quick to dismiss national numbers as irrelevant, but it is hard to make the same argument with such a collection of early state surveys.

We also seem to be witnessing some shake-up in the lower-tier, with Joe Biden emerging to contest Richardson's role as the possible foil of the top-tier. This has been confirmed by other surveys from IA and NH that have shown Biden rising towards the high single-digits.

• Republicans

I argued yesterday that Giuliani would have a very tough time winning New Hampshire, but that he has to find a way to do survive January. The ARG numbers underscore the extent of the challenge Giuliani faces:

• In Iowa, Romney is ahead, as always, with 27%. But the shocking result is the solid second-place of Mike Huckabee, who comes in at 19% -- ahead of Giuliani's 16%. Then comes McCain at 14% and Thompson at 8%.
• In New Hampshire, Romney is still on top -- and he even reaches 30% for the first time. Giuliani is behind at 23%, followed by McCain at 17%, Huckabee at 7% and Thompson at 5%. However strange the Thompson number might seem, it is in line with other polls we have seen.
• And in South Carolina, ARG once again finds Romney on top, expanding his lead: 29% to Giuliani's 23%, with McCain at 13% and Thompson at 10%. It is worth to point out that ARG is the only institute that has shown Romney ahead in SC.

The trouble for Romney's opponents is that Romney's winning Iowa could ensure that he also wins New Hampshire and South Carolina by giving him such momentum that his opponents could not possibly stop him. Contested Iowa victories lifts candidates who were left for dead into NH triumphs (see Kerry), so imagine what it can do for candidates who are already on top!

The trouble for Giuliani is that he is not even a strong second to Romney, and coming behind Huckabee in IA (and possibly behind McCain in NH) would be quite humiliating. Rudy's hope is that Huckabee's showing becomes the story out of Iowa, taking wind out of the Romney campaign. But as long as Romney wins, that seems to be wishful thinking on part of the Giuliani camp. Then there is always the possibility that Huckabee could win the Iowa caucuses -- it seems more likely at this point than a Giuliani victory. David Yepsen thinks that is very much possible... That could very well save Rudy by making Romney as big a loser out of Iowa than he would be.