Giuliani betting on New Hampshire

The Politico is reporting today that Rudy Giuliani will play for the win in New Hampshire. This includes a renewed effort to spend time in the state (he just spent four straight days there) and compete seriously -- whereas until now he seemed to be content with second-place. Giuliani's plan has always been surviving January and waiting for February 5th to pounce in the quasi-natoinal primary day then.

It has long since been obvious, however, that the plan had a glaring flaw: Giuliani cannot survive January that easily. He cannot expect to lose Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan and South Carolina without his numbers plunging in California, Florida and the other big February 5th states. With Romney set up for an ideal IA-NH double victory and Thompson looking strong in SC, that is the scenario Giuliani is looking to. At least if he could be sure he would be second in all of these state that might make things easier -- but he has no such assurance. He is tied with Huckabee and Thompson for second place in IA, and McCain could very well take it from him in New Hampshire.

So Giuliani seems to have understood he can't survive January without winning SOMEWHERE. Iowa seems pretty much out of the picture at this point, and Giuliani is not strong enough in SC to hope for a win there without momentum from previous victories. So that leaves New Hampshire, where polls show him a very close second behind Mitt Romney. Romney's lead typically vary from 1 to 15 points, though he is consistently ahead.

Thus Giulani is betting that with a strong push there, he could make it happen, and he could come out of NH with a victory. One reason supporting Giuliani's theory is that he has not even started running ads in the state, whereas Romney has already done an intense ad campaign.

If the primary takes place in December, as is possible (we will know in about a week), very well! Giuliani as 5-6 more weeks to cover the state with ads, camp there, and win it away from Romney. But if the primary takes place on January 8th, as is more probable... Giuliani will find a victory extremely difficult.

Romney looks very strong in Iowa, and is likely to come out with a victory in the caucuses on January 3rd. Thus, Romney will have strong momentum coming out of Iowa and heading into New Hampshire -- the kind of momentum that lifts one by a lot (witness Kerry's 20 points jump overnight in 2004). Romney is already leading in New Hampshire. All he has to do from now till January 3rd is stay in contact with Giuliani. Not necessarily be in the lead, just hover somewhere tied or behind Rudy -- that much should be enough for Romney to get back ahead after Iowa votes.

For Giuliani to win New Hampshire he will have to build a significant, large and non-volatile lead by January 3rd... Something that looks very unlikely for now. Even if he manages to get ahead of Romney by airing lots of ad, that support is likely to be weak and non-committed, the kind of support that Dean had in 2004.

So the only way for Rudy Giuliani to win New Hampshire would be to seriously contest Iowa -- many not come out with a win, but place a strong second so that his rise/come-back is THE story out of the Iowa caucuses (after all, everyone expects Romney to win at this point). But this morning's Iowa poll shows Giuliani has a long way to go to make that happen. He would be lucky to barely be second at this point, and he does not appear particularly commited to Iowa.