10.31.2007

Morning polls: Fletcher six days away from being crushed

  • Kentucky Governor
There was never much suspense in the Kentucky Governor's race. In fact, Democratic challenger Beshear seems to be increasing his massive lead in the closing days of the campaign. SUSA now has him him leading Governor Fletcher 60% to 36%! Certainly not where an incumbent wants to be six days from the election. Fletcher has only reached 40% once in any public poll released over the past few months, and how he is supposed to win with that? SUSA also pits his approval rating at 36%... coincidentally the number he gets in the trial heat!

Don't forget that recent indications are that the GOP's woes in the governor's race and Fletcher's major judicial problems are now spilling over to other races, as the Republican brand in the state seems very damaged. Not only is State Minority Leader polling very weak numbers, but Hillary Clinton is leading Rudy Giuliani in this reliably red state.

  • Quinnipiac's new national numbers
Quinnipiac had been kind to Democrats over the past few months, but the GOP is slowly inching back into contention. In the latest poll, Hillary appears a bit weaker in the general election than usual, though not in the primary race. We shall see in the coming days and weeks if yesterday's debate had any impact on the race. Rundown of the numbers:

  • In the Democratic primary, Clinton is way ahead with 47%, against 21% for Obama and 12% for Edwards.
  • In the Republican primary, Rudy Giuliani is at 27%, with 17% for Fred Thompson and 14% for Mitt Romney.
  • Giuliani polls the strongest in the g-e, as he edges out Hillary 45-43 and Edwards 44-41. Obama, however, edges out Rudy 43-42.
  • John McCain ties all three Dems, at 44% with Clinton, at 43% with Obama, and at 42% with Edwards.
  • Against Thompson, Clinton leads 46% to 41%, Obama 45% to 37%, and Edwards 46% to 36%.
  • Against Romney, Clinton is up 48% to 38%, Obama is up 46% to 36% and Edwards 47% to 34%.
These are not bad numbers for Democrats, nor for Hillary, who is the only candidate of either field to reach 48% in any match-up. But we have grown used over the past 3 months to see the Democratic candidates leading Republicans, even if the leads are very small. There does have seem to be a small movement back towards the GOP in recent weeks. I'm at a loss to say what exactly happened in the absence of major controversies or of major news.

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