Of the benefits of being the frontrunner

Less than 24 hours after being hammered and attacked from all during the Philadelphia debate, Hillary Clinton has demonstrated the benefits of being the frontrunner: You get good news so often (a good poll, an endorsement), that you can change the subject pretty quickly.

• Damage control

To control what can still be controlled after yesterday's debate, Hillary Clinton issued a statement today embracing the Spitzer plan to give illegal immigrants driving licenses. This is a courageous move (Obama is also in favor of it, but did not say a word during the debate yesterday), and one that has could greatly hurt Hillary in the general election... So apparently the Clinton campaign decided that they could not give the impression that they were evading the answer and had to figure out something, and decided to come in favor of it. The Republicans are likely to prepare their ads right now blasting Hillary for this, but good for Hillary for taking a principled stance on this one... though she was forced by circumstances as her rival campaigns kept attacking her today for not giving a straight answer yesterday. Her campaign also released a video called "The Politics of Pile-on" to make her look like a victim... You can watch it here.

• Union endorsement

Clinton got one of the most valuable union endorsements today when the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME) announced they would support her. The AFSCME is the second-largest union nationwide, representing 1.4 million workers, and this is obviously a major boost for Hillary. Gerard McEntee, the union president, had some very interesting lines in his speech today, directly referring to yesterday's debate:

We need someone who knows how to fight and knows how to win. Sisters and Brothers, Senator Clinton is a seasoned fighter. Believe me, she knows how to fight and she knows how to win. Some of you may have seen last night’s debate. Six guys against Hillary. I’d call that a fair fight. This is one strong woman.

Obama's campaign immediately and surprisingly went after this endorsement, with the spokesperson saying, "We understand that Gerry McEntee and Bill Clinton have a long and close relationship so the push for a Clinton endorsement is no surprise." It is rare for candidate to question endorsements, but Obama seems to be on attack-mode these days... Whatever the reason behind the AFSCME's decision, there is no question this allowed Clinton to get some relief today and to change the subject at least slightly away from her debate performance and her illegal immigrants answer (though the AFSCME is lobbying in NY to get Spitzer's plan passed, so interesting connection). The big question: Did Clinton time this on purpose (or get the union to announce it today) the day after the debate?

• Clinton trounces Giuliani in new poll

Pew specializes in detailed large sample surveys, and it released today a massive poll with tons of internals. The bottom line: Things look great for Democrats. The poll is particularly important because it surveyed 2000 people (double the usual), including 500 on cell phones, and the margin of error is a small 2.5%. Some highlights:

• Hillary Clinton beats Rudy Giuliani 51% to 43% in a head-to-head match-up, a large margin particularly because Clinton crosses 50%.
• The internals of the match-up are particularly interesting: Clinton leads by 20 points among women, and trails by only 5 among men. There is no doubt that she will be very strong in the general election if she maintains such an edge among women... Remember that Kerry had not managed to do that in 2004, one of the reasons for his loss. Clinton also crushes Giuliani among African-Americans (Giuliani only gets 8%), Hispanics (57-38), and she wins all age-groups! In particular, she leads the 18-30 age groups by a massive 19 points, 59% to 40% (Among women of that age group, Hillary gets 66% to Rudy's 32%!).
  
• The most surprising result is no doubt that Clinton leads in all four regions (East, West, MidWest and South) and that she leads by 11% in the South, her biggest edge! She also does much better than Democrats usually do in rural areas, only trailing by 3 (47-44). Make sure to check all the other internals.
• Another very interesting finding is that 76% of Clinton backers say they are voting "for Hillary" rather than against the Republican (only 20). This is the highest affirmative vote a Democrats has obtained since Pew first asked the question in 1988. The previous high was 66% for Clinton in 1996. As a comparison, only 43% of Kerry voters were voting "for Kerry" in 2004. The reverse holds among Giuliani backers, where 46% are voting "for Giuliani" and 50% "against Clinton" -- once again a record of negative voting for GOPers since 1988. This underscores how much this race is about Hillary Clinton.
  
• A quick look at the nomination numbers: Hillary leads 45% to Obama's 24% to Edwards's 12%. Giuliani is at 31% while McCain has risen back to second place at 18%, ahead of Thompson's 17%. Romney has gone down to 9%, tied with Huckabee who has gone up to 8%.