Morning Polls: So much for Giuliani's home-state effect

• SUSA polls New York

So much for the boost that Rudy Giuliani is supposed to give Republicans in New York. SUSA's new state poll shows just how strong Hillary Clinton is in her home state, as Giuliani manages to hold her... below 70%!

• Against Rudy Giuliani, Clinton has her smallest advantage... though she still wins 64% to 30%.
• In fact, McCain does about as well as Rudy, since he trails 67-38.
  
• Against Thompson, it's 70-26, roughly similar to her 70-25 against Romney, 72-22 against Huckabee and 72-21 against Ron Paul.
• In further proof that New York is not for Republicans in 2008, SUSA shows that Al Gore would lead Rudy 59% to 38%.

Rudy Giuliani's argument is that he would put NY, NJ and CT in play. Though New York seems out of consideration (to say the least), NJ and CT polls have shown tighter races there.

• GOP should still be stronger in Virginia

A few days after SUSA showed Hillary slightly ahead against Republicans in the usually reliably red Virginia (at least on the presidential level), Rasmussen came out with its own poll of Virginia. A month ago, Rasmussen had Hillary with a small edge against Rudy. Today, Giuliani leads her 46% to 43%. Against Thompson, Hillary is basically tied, trailing 46% to 45%.

These are still great numbers for Hillary, who is not supposed to be this competitive in the state at all. The last time Virginia voted for a Democrat was 1964, and neither Gore nor Kerry ever had any chance here. Hillary is not supposed to be competitive in states like this, say her Democratic opponents, and that she has managed to tie or lead Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson in every single Virginia poll that has been out this season shows that these are not outliers, and the GOP will have to sweat it out to keep this must-win state.

• Warner ahead in Virginia

Rasmussen also released the first Senate poll from Virginia since Tom Davis announced he was not running. That left the GOP nomination in the hands of former Governor Jim Gilmore. And as we expected, the seat looks like a sure pick-up for Democrats: Mark Warner leads Gilmore 53% to 37%.

It has to be said, however, that Warner typically has posted bigger leads, coming in sometimes in the 60s. If his lead is indeed approximately 16 percent, Republicans can perhaps hope to bring him down enough to make this competitive. But both Gilmore and Warner are known commodities in the state and the GOP is likely to concede this seat without much of a fight, so don't expect too much fireworks here.