Huckabee surging in yet another poll: A shake-up in the GOP nomination race?

On the heels of this morning's Iowa poll that had Huckabee tying Romney for the lead, we now get a new Insider Advantage poll of Florida that has Huckabee surging to second place:

• Giuliani leads with 26%, followed by Huckabee at 17%, McCain at 13%, Romney at 12% and Thompson at 9%.
• A month ago, Huckabee only had 5% and was fifth, behind Giuliani's 29%, Thompson's 19%, Romney's 16% and McCain's 10%.

The reason Huckabee's chances were minimized until today was: Where does he go even if he wins Iowa? He had little support other places, and no organization. This poll suggests that is changing, and Huckabee could be propelled at the top if he prevails in the caucuses and brings Romney down. And this is true even if another poll out today from Florida (this one from CNN, with a bigger margin of error) has very different numbers: Giuliani at 38%, Romney at 17% and Huckabee at 9%. Huckabee used to be a blip in the polls, now he is in the same range as Romney and the others, an ideal position from which to surge ahead if he gets momentum.

Romney emerged as a strong contender in the spring because he was believed to be the most acceptable to conservatives given the other options (McCain and Giuliani). But we always knew Romney's position was fragile, and that many conservatives would love going for someone else. Thompson got in late and never caught on, but now Huckabee is on fire and is threatening Romney's entire strategy. And if he does appear viable, Huckabee could start getting many social conservative endorsements from people who were reluctant to support him at first because he did not seem to have a chance to win the nomination.

Now, Romney and Huckabee appear to be fighting in Iowa for the right to be Giuliani's conservative opponent, as there is only room for one of them. Giuliani is for now rooting for a Huckabee victory, since he would then have a good chance of capturing New Hampshire and killing Huckabee off before he gets a chance to find his footing, while a Romney win in Iowa would make it probable that the former MA governor also gets New Hampshire. But Giuliani should be careful: Given Huckabee's insane momentum, he could very well pull a Kerry and surge ahead of the pack in New Hampshire.

The problem now for Huckabee: He is becoming a target, and he will face a lot of scrutiny throughout December. The Club for Growth regards him as its number one enemy, and will look to bring Huckabee back down before it is too late; if Huckabee falls victim to attacks in the next few weeks, we'll know he peaked a little too early.

• California strongly Democratic

Many states have been looking much tighter this year than in previous cycles, but California is not one of them. Both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama maintain double-digit leads, consistent with the margins Gore and Kerry enjoyed against Bush:

• Clinton leads Rudy Giuliani 52% to 41%. It's 53% to 41% against McCain, 57% to 34% against Romney, and 58% to 31% against Huckabee.
• Obama's numbers are roughly similar: 49% to 42% against Giuliani, 52% to 39% against McCain, 57% to 32% against Obama, and 58% to 29% against Huckabee.

Giuliani polls marginally better than the other GOPers, but his edge over McCain remains within the margin of error, and he only breaks within 8% against Obama. The question, of course, is whether Democrats can expect to get all 55 electoral votes that are supposed to go with a California win... The initiative to divide the ECs by district has been revived, and if passed it would give the GOP about 20 of the 55 electoral votes. That would make the double digit leads Democrats are enjoying pretty much useless.