Presidential diary: A new Iowa poll, and the benefits of self-funding!

• Iowa still all tied up... for both parties!

It is only when we don't get Iowa polls that we realize how much we need them. And today, we are treated with a new poll that has things all tied up, the poll comes from Strategic Vision, a GOP-leaning firm:

• On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are tied at 29%, and Edwards is at 23% -- needless to say, the three remain within the margin of error.
• On the Republican side, Mitt Romney is now in a statistical tie with Mike Huckabee, 26% to 24%. Giuliani is at 14%, Thompson at 10%, and McCain at 7%.

First up, these numbers confirm that Huckabee has become a contender for an Iowa win that would likely be fatal to Romney's chances. In the last Strategic Vision poll released only two weeks ago, Romney was up 30% to 19%. Huckabee has erased a double-digit deficit in two weeks -- and this is confirmed by other polls. Mitt Romney will have to find a way to fight back, but his job will be very difficult as Giuliani and Thompson will also likely take aim at him, hoping to bring him down. For the smaller Iowa candidates who are no longer hoping for a win, a Romney loss would be as good as they could possibly hope for, especially if Huckabee -- who does not have much organization anywhere else -- is the one to bring him down.

As for Democrats, well, the story has been the same for months now: Iowa is the only state in which Clinton does not have any kind of lead and, conveniently for Edwards and Obama, it is also the first voting state. The last Strategic Vision poll had Clinton at 29% and Obama at 27%, with Edwards at 20%. At this point Clinton has to be comforted to see she has not fallen down further given predictions of impending doom for her campaign in the state, and the Obama campaign will be very satisfied to see it is now consistently coming ahead of Edwards -- it was not the case until recently.

• Gallup has Democrats leading

Gallup came out with a new general election poll, and it looks good for Democrats as Clinton and Obama lead 7 match-ups against Republicans, the eight one being tied:

• Hillary Clinton leads Rudy Giuliani 49% to 44% and John McCain 50% to 44%. She has massive leads against Mitt Romney (54% to 38%) and Fred Thompson 53% to 40%.
• Barack Obama only ties Giuliani at 45%, but he leads against McCain 47% to 44%, against Romney 52% to 35% and against Thompson 51% to 38%.

The Thompson-Clinton match-up is the only one that has significantly changed since the July poll in which Thompson was only led 48% to 45% -- which suggests Thompson's decline as much as anything else.

• Giuliani increases NH spending... and Romney ups him

With one month to go, the benefits of Romney self-funding his campaign are becoming increasingly apparent. His rivals had always complained that Romney would just spend more money compared to them, and that whenever they came out with an ad Romney would just donate to himself to ensure he had an ad to answer. And that seems to have happened in New Hampshire. Marc Ambinder reports that Giuliani has boosted his spending 60% this week: His campaign is now spending $319,000 on the Boston market alone (which reaches New Hampshire) and $173,965 in the Manchester market. But Romney is now at $705,100 (Boston) and $464,040 (Manchester) in those two markets.

Romney is massively outspending Giuliani. And given that their cash on hands total were roughly similar at the end of the third quarter, the only explanation is self-funding. And consider that Romney is spending about $1.2 million a week now in New Hampshire (he really does not have that much room to grow, however, since he has pretty much saturated the Manchester market already).