More evidence of a Huckabee surge: First poll has him leading in Iowa!
Huckabee has taken the lead in an Iowa poll for the first time -- and this is also the first survey I have seen since the spring in which Mitt Romney is not leading the caucuses. Rasmussen has come out with a new poll from the state and it shows a stunning turn-around:
As I said yesterday in my assessment of what this might mean to the GOP race, Huckabee and Romney are now going to fight it out for the right to be Giuliani's alternative -- and Romney better win this in Iowa if he wants to have any chance of being the GOP nominee. He might be the most likely to win the nomination, but that depends on his result here. And don't forget: No one had managed to challenge Romney since the spring so much that Thompson, Giuliani and McCain had chosen to not compete in the Ames straw poll rather than face a humiliating defeat.
And in another sign that things are changing fast in the Republican race, Mike Huckabee is starting to pick up some major endorsements. Today, Florida's state Senate Majority Leader Daniel Webster announced he would support Huckabee, praising him for his leadership in Arkansas. One of the main obstacles to Huckabee had been the reluctance of people who should be enthusiastic about him to support him given the sense that he had no chance of winning the nomination. With his Iowa surge, that is likely to change very soon -- Huckabee has embarked on a stunning momentum cycle that could take him even further up.
One possible explanation of Romney's decline is given by a new New York Times article that says that Romney's Mormon faith is proving to hard to overcome and is tremendously helping Huckabee: "Mr. Huckabee’s rise in Iowa as been fueled by evangelical Christians, who believe Mormonism runs counter to Christian orthodoxy." One Huckabee supporter asks whether Mr. Romney’s prayers would “even get through.” To be fair, Huckabee is also probably the most consistent social conservative among the top candidates, and the one who speaks the most naturally about his faith and how it would influence his presidency.
- Mike Huckabee comes in at 28%, followed by Romney at 25%. Giuliani is far behind at 12%.
- The previous Rasmussen poll was taken two small weeks ago, and it had Romney far far ahead at 29% versus 16% for Huckabee.
- At least some good news for Romney is that 25% fo voters who might change their mind name him as their second-choice, versus 17% for Huckabee. But 53% of Huckabee voters say they are definitely voting for him, versus 48% for Romney.
As I said yesterday in my assessment of what this might mean to the GOP race, Huckabee and Romney are now going to fight it out for the right to be Giuliani's alternative -- and Romney better win this in Iowa if he wants to have any chance of being the GOP nominee. He might be the most likely to win the nomination, but that depends on his result here. And don't forget: No one had managed to challenge Romney since the spring so much that Thompson, Giuliani and McCain had chosen to not compete in the Ames straw poll rather than face a humiliating defeat.
And in another sign that things are changing fast in the Republican race, Mike Huckabee is starting to pick up some major endorsements. Today, Florida's state Senate Majority Leader Daniel Webster announced he would support Huckabee, praising him for his leadership in Arkansas. One of the main obstacles to Huckabee had been the reluctance of people who should be enthusiastic about him to support him given the sense that he had no chance of winning the nomination. With his Iowa surge, that is likely to change very soon -- Huckabee has embarked on a stunning momentum cycle that could take him even further up.
One possible explanation of Romney's decline is given by a new New York Times article that says that Romney's Mormon faith is proving to hard to overcome and is tremendously helping Huckabee: "Mr. Huckabee’s rise in Iowa as been fueled by evangelical Christians, who believe Mormonism runs counter to Christian orthodoxy." One Huckabee supporter asks whether Mr. Romney’s prayers would “even get through.” To be fair, Huckabee is also probably the most consistent social conservative among the top candidates, and the one who speaks the most naturally about his faith and how it would influence his presidency.
Labels: IA-GOP
posted by Taniel at
10:39 AM
15 Comments:
Great assessment - I obviously am a Huckabee supporter - I think he is hte most qualified to lead our Country at this time - Go Mike! - http://www.hucksarmy.com
By
bpassmore, At
28 November, 2007 11:00
I suppose the mudslingers are coming out of the woodwork now that Huckabee is surging. I voted for Bush but I would never vote for Giuliani no matter how hard Fox "Faux" News tries to ram him down America's throat.
Giuliani makes Bill Clinto look like a choir boy and that takes some doing.
How is it that adultery and numerous marriages are okay for folks like Pat Robinson (whom I used to admire) when it's someone they think they can control? What's that all about?
By
Anonymous, At
28 November, 2007 12:45
Just a few points that are on my mind. When it comes to prayer, that is between man and God only. We do not have the right to say that his prayers are not being heard by God. Second, The need to talk about Romney's religion is not a required thing to be done. He is not running for a church office but rather for the office of President of the United States. Third, Mormons are Christians, who center their religion around Christ, and the very name of the Mormon Church (nickname) is actually "The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints". Romney has the same value system as the majority of most Christians. He is a good man well equipped for the office of President.
By
Anonymous, At
28 November, 2007 12:53
I'm a committed democrat, so take this with several grains of salt but i have to say that I find Huckabee the most real and authentic and humane and caring Republican candidate. I do disagree with him on some important issues, but i also respect his values and his commitment to them, and i think he genuinely and honestly cares about some things larger than his personal ambitions. If y'all made him the Republican candidate you still probably wouldn't get my vote, but you'd certainly get my respect (& i think other Democrats), for whatever that's worth.
By
Urk, At
28 November, 2007 13:44
Huck is definitely surging, no doubt about it. However, it's clear he has no chance at the nomination with or without Iowa. And even if he could, there's no way he could beat the Clinton machine. He'd be seen as Bush w/a more liberal bent on fiscal issues. Huck will get my vote over the Dems, but that's the only way.
Iowa will determine the nominee. If Mitt wins, he'll win the nomination. If Huck wins, Rudy will win the nomination. It'll be interesting to watch it all play out.
By
Slick-Willy, At
28 November, 2007 15:12
Urk-
Your take is obvious. The reason you are more comfortable with Huck is because you agree with him on most issues. Huck is consistent, but outside of gun control and abortion Huck's been consistently liberal. See taxes, spending, illegal immigration, etc.
By
Slick-Willy, At
28 November, 2007 15:16
I choose to believe that Huckabee's stunning rise is due to his audacious and ardent backing of the FairTax plan. Among Democrats, only lonely - but principled - Mike Gravel ardently supports it. Huckabee is now a top contender, while Gravel is still seeking traction among Democrats.
So, let's you and I do something to help Mike Huckabee reach the top spot!
Let's save our economy from projected meltdown and ensure that the FairTax becomes a part of our family's future by pledging ongoing financial support to
FairTax.org ($25 per mo.)
Then, let's support Mike Huckabee in a very solid way - by setting up a "bill payee account" in our bank or credit union Bill Pay service (right over the web).
I've scheduled $20.08 to go out, automatically, every two weeks. You can also specify a specific number of payments (individuals cannot exceed $2,300 per campaign) and you can delete your automatic payment at any time. Can you imagine how this could grow into BIG MONEY if enough of us set up automatic, recurring, bi-weekly payments for these candidates?!
Here's the payee entry information you'll need, to join me in this "Help Huckabee Rock the FairTax" effort:
Huckabee for President, Inc.
P.O. Box 2008
Little Rock, Arkansas 72203
Phone: (501) 324-2008
Don't wait! Log in to your Bill Pay service - RIGHT NOW!
(Permission granted to republish -Ian)
By
Anonymous, At
28 November, 2007 16:09
"Help Huckabee Rock the FairTax"
The FairTax is a terrible idea. Sales taxes hurt the poor at a disproportional rate. Going after the poor and the middle class for tax increases will only hurt the economy.
By
Anonymous, At
28 November, 2007 22:18
Hi C.S., I've studied the FairTax plan, in depth. Not only is it less regressive than the current system, but it will solve balance of trade problems because it removes embedded business and payroll tax compliance costs from prices, applies the tax to imports, and it untaxes initiative and productivity such that business capital can be directed toward growth, research and product and services development.
The effective tax rate percentages, that different income groups would pay under the FairTax, are calculated by crediting the monthly "prebate" (advance rebate of projected tax on necessities) against total monthly spending of citizen families (1 member and greater, Dept. of Commerce poverty-level data; a single person receiving ~$200/mo, a family of four, ~$500/mo, in addition to working earners receiving paychecks with no Federal deductions) Prof.'s Kotlikoff and Rapson (10/06) concluded,
"...the FairTax imposes much lower average taxes on working-age households than does the current system. The FairTax broadens the tax base from what is now primarily a system of labor income taxation to a system that taxes, albeit indirectly, both labor income and existing wealth. By including existing wealth in the effective tax base, much of which is owned by rich and middle-class elderly households, the FairTax is able to tax labor income at a lower effective rate and, thereby, lower the average lifetime tax rates facing working-age Americans.
"Consider, as an example, a single household age 30 earning $50,000. The household’s average tax rate under the current system is 21.1 percent. It’s 13.5 percent under the FairTax. Since the FairTax would preserve the purchasing power of Social Security benefits and also provide a tax rebate, older low-income workers who will live primarily or exclusively on Social Security would be better off. As an example, the average remaining lifetime tax rate for an age 60 married couple with $20,000 of earnings falls from its current value of 7.2 percent to -11.0 percent under the FairTax. As another example, compare the current 24.0 percent remaining lifetime average tax rate of a married age 45 couple with $100,000 in earnings to the 14.7 percent rate that arises under the FairTax."
Further, per Jokischa and Kotlikoff (circa 2006?) ...
"...once one moves to generations postdating the baby boomers there are positive welfare gains for all income groups in each cohort. Under a 23 percent FairTax policy, the poorest members of the generation born in 1990 enjoy a 13.5 percent welfare gain. Their middle-class and rich contemporaries experience 5 and 2 percent welfare gains, respectively. The welfare gains are largest for future generations. Take the cohort born in 2030. The poorest members of this cohort enjoy a huge 26 percent improvement in their well-being. For middle class members of this birth group, there's a 12 percent welfare gain. And for the richest members of the group, the gain is 5 percent."
The effective tax rate percentages, that different income groups would pay under the FairTax, are calculated by crediting the monthly "prebate" (advance rebate of projected tax on necessities) against total monthly spending of citizen families (1 member and greater, Dept. of Commerce poverty-level data; a single person receiving ~$200/mo, a family of four, ~$500/mo, in addition to working earners receiving paychecks with no Federal deductions) Prof.'s Kotlikoff and Rapson (10/06) concluded,
"...the FairTax imposes much lower average taxes on working-age households than does the current system. The FairTax broadens the tax base from what is now primarily a system of labor income taxation to a system that taxes, albeit indirectly, both labor income and existing wealth. By including existing wealth in the effective tax base, much of which is owned by rich and middle-class elderly households, the FairTax is able to tax labor income at a lower effective rate and, thereby, lower the average lifetime tax rates facing working-age Americans.
"Consider, as an example, a single household age 30 earning $50,000. The household’s average tax rate under the current system is 21.1 percent. It’s 13.5 percent under the FairTax. Since the FairTax would preserve the purchasing power of Social Security benefits and also provide a tax rebate, older low-income workers who will live primarily or exclusively on Social Security would be better off. As an example, the average remaining lifetime tax rate for an age 60 married couple with $20,000 of earnings falls from its current value of 7.2 percent to -11.0 percent under the FairTax. As another example, compare the current 24.0 percent remaining lifetime average tax rate of a married age 45 couple with $100,000 in earnings to the 14.7 percent rate that arises under the FairTax."
Further, per Jokischa and Kotlikoff (circa 2006?) ...
"...once one moves to generations postdating the baby boomers there are positive welfare gains for all income groups in each cohort. Under a 23 percent FairTax policy, the poorest members of the generation born in 1990 enjoy a 13.5 percent welfare gain. Their middle-class and rich contemporaries experience 5 and 2 percent welfare gains, respectively. The welfare gains are largest for future generations. Take the cohort born in 2030. The poorest members of this cohort enjoy a huge 26 percent improvement in their well-being. For middle class members of this birth group, there's a 12 percent welfare gain. And for the richest members of the group, the gain is 5 percent."
There is no reasonable equity of distribution under the current INCOME tax system. What's more, the Tax Code has become a "tinkerer's paradise" for 53% of the lobbyists who game it in Washington DC. It's a lucrative business, and the U.S. TAXPAYER pays for ALL of it in higher prices (i.e., a hidden tax which is incomprehensible to the average working person).
It's well past time to scrap the tax code and pay for government the way that America's working men and women are paid - when, and because, something is sold!
(Pass it on! Permission granted to reproduce in whole or part. - Ian)
By
Anonymous, At
28 November, 2007 22:33
"Hi C.S., I've studied the FairTax plan, in depth. Not only is it less regressive than the current system,"
I don't buy it. Sure, there are pre-bates in this system, but how long will those last? When the deficits don't disappear, they will be the first things cut.
The same people who mess will the tax code to give the rich tax breaks would first weaken, then eliminate pre-bates.
"but it will solve balance of trade problems because..."
The American dollar is in the tank right now at record lows. Normal economics dictates that this should fix the trade balance as people will import less and export more.
This hasn't happened.
Why? Cause you don't make anything.
The United States is a consumer economy. A massive sales tax would just reduce consumption. (This is probably a good thing since the saving rate is negative.) This would be really, really bad for the economy.
By
Anonymous, At
29 November, 2007 07:02
C.S., The dollar's tankin' because we have some profligate spenders in Congress! And the present tax system simply gives them cover to continue to do so. Renown economist Laurence Kotlikoff believes that failure to enact the FairTax - choosing instead to try to "flatten" what he deems to be a non-flattenable income tax system - will eventuate into an irrevocable economic meltdown, precisely because of the hidden aspects of the current system that make political accountability impossible. Tom Frey, of the DiVinci Institute, foresees the coming collapse of the income tax system.
While many who are invested in the current income tax system seek to demagog the well-researched FairTax plan, FairTax's theoretical underpinnings have been professionally reviewed, and its acceptance in the professional / academic community continues to grow. Here is why the FairTax MUST replace the income tax. It's:
• SIMPLE, easy to understand
• EFFICIENT, inexpensive to comply with and doesn't cause less-than-optimal business decisions for tax minimization purposes
• FAIR, loophole free and everyone pays their share
• LOW TAX RATE, achieved by broad base with no exclusions
• PREDICTABLE, doesn't change, so financial planning is possible
• UNINTRUSIVE, doesn't intrude into our personal affairs or limit our liberty
• VISIBLE, not hidden from the public in tax-inflated prices or otherwise
• PRODUCTIVE, rewards, rather than penalizes, work and productivity
Its benefits are as follows:
For INDIVIDUALS:
• No more tax on income - make as much as you wish
• You receive your full paycheck - no more deductions
• You pay the tax when you buy "at retail" - not "used"
• No more double taxation (e.g. like on current Capital Gains)
• Reduction of "pre-FairTaxed" retail prices by 20%-30%
• Adding back 29.9% FairTax maintains current price levels
• FairTax would constitute 23% portion of new prices
• Every household receives a monthly check, or "pre-bate"
• "Prebate" is "advance payback" for taxes payable on monthly consumption to poverty level
• FairTax's "prebate" ensures progressivity, poverty protection
• Finally, citizens are knowledgeable of what their tax IS
• Elimination of "parasitic" Income Tax industry
• NO MORE IRS. NO MORE FILING OF TAX RETURNS by individuals
• Those possessing illicit forms of income will ALSO pay the FairTax
• Households have more disposable income to purchase goods
• Savings is bolstered with reduction of interest rates
For BUSINESSES:
• Corporate income and payroll taxes revoked under FairTax
• Business compensated for collecting tax at "cash register"
• No more tax-related lawyers, lobbyists on company payrolls
• No more embedded (hidden) income/payroll taxes in prices
• Reduced costs. Competition - not tax policy - drives prices
• Off-shore "tax haven" headquarters can now return to U.S
• No more "favors" from politicians at expense of taxpayers
• Resources go to R&D and study of competition - not taxes
• Global "free (and equitable) trade" becomes possible for currently-disadvanted U.S. exports
• US exports increase their share of foreign markets
For the COUNTRY:
• 7% - 13% economic growth projected in the first year of the FairTax
• Jobs return to the U.S.
• Foreign corporations "set up shop" in the U.S.
• Tax system trends are corrected to "enlarge the pie"
• Larger economic "pie," means thinner tax rate "slices"
• Initial 23% portion of price is pressured downward as "pie" increases
• No more "closed door" tax deals by politicians and business
• FairTax sets new global standard. Other countries will follow
The income tax system must ultimately fail, if for no other reason than that Washington politicians cannot seem to wean themselves from being "sucked down the spending hole" while seeking ways to hide the magnitude of taxation from those who ultimately pay for all of it - every working American. It's well past time to scrap the tax code and pay for government the way that America's working men and women are paid - when something is sold.
(Permission is granted to reproduce in whole or part. - Ian)
By
Anonymous, At
29 November, 2007 14:35
"C.S., The dollar's tankin' because we have some profligate spenders in Congress!"
It doesn't matter why the dollar is down. The basic economic principals don't change.
So I brought up two points and you didn't address either of them.
1.) There's no guarantee that pre-bates will last and without them sales taxes are incredibly regressive.
2.) You are taxing the one thing your economy is good at, consuming.
It would be better to simplify the tax code and get rid of many deductions.
By
Anonymous, At
29 November, 2007 19:06
Oh, pardon me, I thought your comments were rhetorical.
Re: 1) I think getting rid of the prebate would be difficult, because it is the mechanism of progressivity. Also citizens will realize the wisdom, simplicity, and lack of game-able credits, deductions, etc. it represents.
Re: 2) We are taxing it now, albeit with hidden embedded taxes (that have the unfortunate effect of putting our exports at a significant price disadvantage).
Again, the problem with trying to fix the current code with, as Huckabee says, "A tap of the hammer and a twist of a screwdriver," is that any fixes disappear as quick as you can say, "tax bill."
By
Anonymous, At
29 November, 2007 19:19
marc jacobs, doudoune canada goose, ugg,uggs,uggs canada, moncler, canada goose outlet, moncler, vans, converse, ugg,ugg australia,ugg italia, moncler, hollister, ugg boots uk, barbour jackets, gucci, bottes ugg, louis vuitton, michael kors outlet online, michael kors outlet, lancel, canada goose outlet, converse outlet, canada goose, pandora charms, barbour, canada goose, links of london, pandora jewelry, moncler outlet, coach outlet, moncler, pandora charms, replica watches, louis vuitton, canada goose, louis vuitton, nike air max, hollister, moncler, pandora jewelry, michael kors handbags, wedding dresses, ugg pas cher, swarovski, karen millen, juicy couture outlet, doke gabbana outlet, montre pas cher, canada goose uk, moncler, toms shoes, louis vuitton, ray ban
By
oakleyses, At
15 November, 2015 20:53
winter jackets
nike free 5
north face jackets
oklahoma city thunder
black friday deals
michael kors canada
oakley,occhiali oakley,oakley italia,oakley occhiali,oakley sunglasses
michael kors outlet online
wellensteyn outlet
new york jets
mizuno running shoes
michael kors factory store
adidas wings shoes
prada sneakers
arizona cardinals
nfl jersey wholesale
michael kors handbags clearance
pittsburgh steelers
christian louboutin outlet
rolex watches,rolex watches,swiss watches,watches for men,watches for women,omega watches,replica watches,rolex watches for sale,rolex replica,rolex watch,cartier watches,rolex submariner,fake rolex,rolex replica watches,replica rolex
mm1126
By
mmjiaxin, At
25 November, 2015 21:02
Post a Comment
Subscribe to Post Comments [Atom]
<< Home