Presidential diary: The Michigan mess, and new polls

• Michigan chaos: Obama, Edwards will stay off the ballot

The Michigan primary is now set for January 15th, but there was still some controversy about whose name would be on the ballot. All the candidates but Clinton and Dodd withdrew their names at the beginning of October to punish Michigan for organizing a "rogue primary". But the Michigan House passed a bill last week putting the names of Edwards, Obama, Biden and Kucinich back on the ballot forcefully -- which would have put all 6 candidates in front of voters.

But the state Senate refused to pass the bill today, with the Republican Majority Leader saying the Democrats can't agree on what they want. So this pretty much ends the primary polemic: Only Clinton and Dodd will be on the ballot. This is a small blow to Clinton: She was pretty much guarateed a win here, especially as none of the candidates are allowed to campaign here and challenge Clinton's lead. And defeating Obama and Edwards here on the 15th could have allowed her to recover some momentum if she stumbles in Iowa and New Hampshire. But it is unlikely she would get much coverage of a win against Dodd here; perhaps a small paragraph in the stories written about the GOP race.

• GOP race all over the place

Here is a new poll from South Carolina, and it has the Republican race as scattered as it could be. In the heels of worrying numbers for Romney in Iowa this morning, a new poll has him... leading in South Carolina! This is very rare, as Romney usually is weak in the state and only ARG polls have given him the lead. But he only comes in with 17%, in front of Thompson's 15%, Huckabee's 13%, McCain's 11% and Giuliani's 9%.

The field is very fractured, and will essentially be completely reshuffled by January 19th based on Iowa, New Hampshire and Michigan results. It does seem that no candidate will be able to build any kind of advantage in the state, which will give a huge boost to whoever manages to win the earlier states. The tragic news for Romney is that he is suddenly rising in South Carolina just when his lead in Iowa (which had held steady for months and months) is being challenged.

• New York is Clinton country

SUSA came out with a new poll from New York today, and has Clinton crushing all her GOP rivals, including Rudy Giuliani. But Rudy manages to tie Obama:

• Hillary leads both Giuliani and McCain 56% to 37%; against Romney, Hillary is ahead 62% to 31% and dominates Huckabee 65% to 27%.
• Obama runs weaker, and cannot muster a lead against Giuliani, as the two are tied at 46%. Obama leads McCain 49% to 43%, though he manages crushing leads against Romney 55% to 34% and Huckabee 58% to 29%.

Giuliani has long argued that he would put the coastal states (NY, CT, NJ) in play, and polls have confirmed that he might though he would have trouble if Democrats nominate Clinton. What is interesting though is that McCain runs roughly equal with Rudy, suggesting that Rudy does not have a particular advantage in the state, but it is his supposed moderate profile that is playing well with Northeastern voters. Democrats do not appear to have much to worry about in NY, even in case of a Obama-Giuliani match-up. This is Rudy's home-state, and Obama will only have room to grow here once he introduces himself to voters.