10.02.2007

Democrats pressing their advantage in the House

The GOP has to face the daunting prospect of three open seats to defend in Democratic-trending Illinois: IL-11, IL-14, and IL-18. A week ago, Republicans got some welcome news when Dennis Hastert dismissed insistent speculation he would resign and provoke a special election. But today, it was Democrats who were celebrating a major recruitment coup: They convinced Illinois Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson to jump in the race in IL-11. This is rather unexpected given how recently Rep. Weller announced he would retire and open up the seat. Also, Halvorson was appearing to be leaning against the run, as she had wondered out loud why be one among 435 when she had a shot to be the first female president of the Illinois Senate.

Republicans are hoping that they can entice a state senator of their own, Christine Radogno, with a moderate reputation. That would help them play defense, but there does seem to be a pattern of Republicans falling behind in their open seats. This is especially stunning in OH-15, where so many potential Republican candidates have passed on at this race one has to wonder whether the GOP will even try putting up a fight there.

In other House news, Democrats are clearly preparing to exploit Bush's veto of the children health-care bill (SCHIP). A few weeks after the GOP started running a radio ad against the who's who of targeted House Dems, also on SCHIP, the DCCC is up on air against 8 Republican incumbents. The list says a lot about which districts Democrats are planning to target, as all Republicans are seating in very vulnerable districts: Steve Chabot (OH-01), Thelma Drake (VA-02), Tom Feeney (FL-24), Sam Graves (MO-06), Joe Knollenberg (MI-09), Randy Kuhl (NY-29), Jim Saxton (NJ-03) and Tim Walberg (MI-07).

The choice to go after Feeney is particularly meaningful. Democrats are trying to push Feeney towards retirement, hoping that the prospect of a difficult re-election race scares him away from running. FL-24 is a swing district, and an open seat would be ripe for pick-up for Democrats. Here is the text of the ad running against Feeney:

Did you know Congressman Feeney gets health care at taxpayers' expense, but Feeney and Bush are blocking health care for 10 million uninsured children? Tell Tom Feeney to put families first.

Meanwhile, Larry Craig is still in the Senate and everyone is still waiting for Kerrey to make up his mind...

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