Morning Polls: California and New York are Clinton-land

Many polls coming out over the past 24 hours, which explains why so many of the last entries were devoted to poll rundowns. Here is this morning's batch:

• Does Rudy stand a chance in New York without Clinton running?

Democrats don't have to worry about this as long as Clinton remains the likely nominee, but could Rudy Giuliani put his home-state of New York in play if Democrats nominate Barack Obama or John Edwards? The latest SUSA poll suggests that he might:

• In the battle of New-Yorkers, Clinton has no trouble dismissing Giuliani by a whooping 59% to 35%. She beats Thompson 64% to 30%, and crushes Romney by a stunning 40 points: 67% to 27%.
• But Giuliani is much more competitive against Obama and Edwards. He trails the Illinois Senator by 5% (49% to 44%) and actually leads John Edwards by 1% (46-45).
• Obama and Edwards have no problem defeating the other Republicans, albeit by lesser margins than Clinton. Obama leads Thompson by 15 and Romney by 28. Edwards leads Thompson by 22 and Romney by 34.

Naturally, no Democrat can win the White House without winning New York. Giuliani's electability argument rests on the notion that he would put coastal states like CT, NY and NJ in play. Unfortunately for him, Democrats might nominate a fellow New-Yorker, but it appears from this poll that he will be able to make New York competitive.

• California just like New York

Yesterday's SUSA poll from California tells a very similar story. Clinton carries the state by significant margins, while her Democratic rivals struggle against Giuliani:

• Giuliani loses 57-37 against Clinton, but trails Obama only by 4 (48-44) and Edwards by 2 (46-44).
• Thompson and Romney barely make a dent in Democratic leads, however; Clinton has the biggest margins (60-34 and 63-30 respectively), but Obama (53-37 and 51-36) and Edwards (53-32 and 58-27) remain untroubled.

This does suggest that Clinton's strength in NY also was not stemming from her status as a New Yorker. Rather, Clinton's polarizing nature, the very same nature which is responsible for her struggles in purple and red states makes her unbeatable in blue states.

• Thompson, Clinton ahead in South Carolina

Rasmussen just released a primary poll from South Carolina, a day after the ARG survey showed surging Romney ahead for the first time and Clinton in a firm lead:

• On the Republican side, Thompson is leading with 24%, followed by Giuliani at 20%, Romney at 15% and McCain at 10%. While this appears to contradict yesterday's ARG poll, the trendline is the same: A month ago, Romney was stuck at fourth, at 10%. While he probably hasn't moved into a comfortable lead, Romney definitely has some momentum in the state.
  
• On the Democratic side, the numbers are starkingly similar to the ARG survey: Clinton leads with 43%, followed by Obama's 30% and Edwards' 10%. Rasmussen specifies that Clinton and Obama are virtually tied among black voters, the key constituency in the state.

South Carolina was supposed to be very fertile territory for Obama. But recent polls suggests his support has been slipping there. And his campaign cannot blame the "it's still early factor," for the trend lines are not favoring Obama: He was much closer to Clinton earlier this year.