Will Giuliani's atypical social positions finally damage his candidacy?
The biggest surprise of the primary campaign so far has been Giuliani's ability to sidestep questions about his moderate positions on many issues crucial to the GOP base: gun control, gay rights, abortion... Not to mention his messy personal life. Yet, Giuliani has been able to use his 9-11 image to project himself as such a strong defense conservative that the religious activists' reservations have barely made a dent in his support.
But it now appears the offended elements of the Republican base might be fighting back. Last week, reports emerged that the NRA might break with tradition and get involved in a primary to actively oppose Giuliani. And yesterday, the Religious Right joined the mix. At a private private of the Council for National Policy held in Salt Lake City, a group of social conservative leaders (the most prominent being James Dobson, the Catholic leader of Focus on the Family) unanimously adopted a threatening resolution: "If the Republican Party nominates a pro-abortion candidate, we will consider running a third-party candidate."
The question then becomes how serious this resolution is. If the CNP is serious about fielding a third-party candidate, it certainly wields enough power to carry the project to fruition. But would they take the risk of throwing the election to the Democrat, perhaps even to Hillary Clinton? Or is this just an attempt to influence hte primary process and get conservative activists to finally turn away from Giuliani, possibly by undermining his electability argument? Obviously, a Republican split would be a terrible blow to the GOP's chances; the election will probably be close enough that Giuliani would not be able to afford bleeding away religious support to a third-party candidate.
It does appear that the CNP's threat might be serious, however, for what religious leaders are worried about is not simply a Giuliani candidacy but that future Republican candidates might think they can win the nomination with similar positions. Up to now, any Republican candidate who was serious about a presidential run had to adopt strongly conservative positions on social issues; but a Giuliani victory could signal that the Religious Right is no longer a key constituency, and push other Republicans to not address issues like abortion.
This is evident in conservative leader Richard Viguerie assessment that, "If [Giuliani] were to get the nomination, it would probably be the last election that we would have a serious Republican candidate for president. The conservative movement is not going to stand for his approach. He's wrong on every single social issue and wrong on Second Amendment." In other words, the danger Giuliani represents is much bigger than 2008. It could permanently damage the hold the Religious Right has on the GOP (look at the way it derailed McCain in South Carolina in 2000).
Giuliani deflects all these criticisms by... using 9-11 to explain his transformation and conversion to more conservative positions. He recently said that he believed in stronger gun rights because of what he witnessed in 9-11, and the danger the world represents. Naturally, Giuliani did not address how guns could have helped prevent those attacks, nor whether this meant he approved of carrying guns in airplanes. Even more stunningly, Giuliani used 9-11 to explain why he had picked up his phone when his wife called at the NRA convention two weeks ago. Many accused Giuliani of staging that call to portray a family life and deflect criticism of his messy personal background. Why else would Giuliani interrupt a major crucial speech to take a bizarre phone call? But not at all, answered Giuliani, this is simply explained by... 9-11:
Check out John Fund's column in the Wall Street Journal that summarizes incidents in which Giuliani freaks out at people whose cell phone rings at some of his campaign events:
Did the cell phone incident mark a shift in coverage of the Giuliani campaign? Will his social positions, use of September 11th, and policy shifts be examined more closely both by the media and by conservative activists?
But it now appears the offended elements of the Republican base might be fighting back. Last week, reports emerged that the NRA might break with tradition and get involved in a primary to actively oppose Giuliani. And yesterday, the Religious Right joined the mix. At a private private of the Council for National Policy held in Salt Lake City, a group of social conservative leaders (the most prominent being James Dobson, the Catholic leader of Focus on the Family) unanimously adopted a threatening resolution: "If the Republican Party nominates a pro-abortion candidate, we will consider running a third-party candidate."
The question then becomes how serious this resolution is. If the CNP is serious about fielding a third-party candidate, it certainly wields enough power to carry the project to fruition. But would they take the risk of throwing the election to the Democrat, perhaps even to Hillary Clinton? Or is this just an attempt to influence hte primary process and get conservative activists to finally turn away from Giuliani, possibly by undermining his electability argument? Obviously, a Republican split would be a terrible blow to the GOP's chances; the election will probably be close enough that Giuliani would not be able to afford bleeding away religious support to a third-party candidate.
It does appear that the CNP's threat might be serious, however, for what religious leaders are worried about is not simply a Giuliani candidacy but that future Republican candidates might think they can win the nomination with similar positions. Up to now, any Republican candidate who was serious about a presidential run had to adopt strongly conservative positions on social issues; but a Giuliani victory could signal that the Religious Right is no longer a key constituency, and push other Republicans to not address issues like abortion.
This is evident in conservative leader Richard Viguerie assessment that, "If [Giuliani] were to get the nomination, it would probably be the last election that we would have a serious Republican candidate for president. The conservative movement is not going to stand for his approach. He's wrong on every single social issue and wrong on Second Amendment." In other words, the danger Giuliani represents is much bigger than 2008. It could permanently damage the hold the Religious Right has on the GOP (look at the way it derailed McCain in South Carolina in 2000).
Giuliani deflects all these criticisms by... using 9-11 to explain his transformation and conversion to more conservative positions. He recently said that he believed in stronger gun rights because of what he witnessed in 9-11, and the danger the world represents. Naturally, Giuliani did not address how guns could have helped prevent those attacks, nor whether this meant he approved of carrying guns in airplanes. Even more stunningly, Giuliani used 9-11 to explain why he had picked up his phone when his wife called at the NRA convention two weeks ago. Many accused Giuliani of staging that call to portray a family life and deflect criticism of his messy personal background. Why else would Giuliani interrupt a major crucial speech to take a bizarre phone call? But not at all, answered Giuliani, this is simply explained by... 9-11:
And quite honestly, since Sept. 11, most of the time when we get on a plane, we talk to each other and just reaffirm the fact that we love each other... Sometimes if I'm in the middle of a very, very sensitive meeting, I don't take the call right then; I wait. But I thought it would be kind of nice if I took it at that point, and I'd done that before in engagements, and I didn't realize it would create any kind of controversy.
Check out John Fund's column in the Wall Street Journal that summarizes incidents in which Giuliani freaks out at people whose cell phone rings at some of his campaign events:
This is the dark Giuliani, and here he was, making an unwelcome appearance. He shifted to a long digression about the scene in "Dr. Strangelove" where General Buck Turgidson answers a call in the middle of a crisis and whispers sweet nothings to his girl on the phone, as the nation's political and military leadership looks on impatiently. "Just tell him you love him so I can go on with my speech," Giuliani said. No one was laughing. Giuliani actually waited for the woman to hang up. Then, after a painful minute or so, he was back in candidate mode, talking about Vince Lombardi and the mind of a champion.
Did the cell phone incident mark a shift in coverage of the Giuliani campaign? Will his social positions, use of September 11th, and policy shifts be examined more closely both by the media and by conservative activists?
posted by Taniel at
12:43 PM
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