ARG polls the early states, shocks the political world

Mitt Romney is ahead in South Carolina. For anyone who has been following the Republican race over the past few months, this is truly a shocking finding. And not only that, but his lead in that state is bigger than the one he enjoys in Iowa! That is truly too much to be believed, and entirely challenges the conventional wisdom of the primary situation.

South Carolina is supposed to be the barrier to Romney's presidential ambitions. He has been leading in Iowa and New Hampshire for months now, due to early advertising, but he had failed to move South Carolina numbers. With Rudy Giuliani looking to survive the early primaries and hit his rivals on February 5th and with Fred Thompson putting all his strength in Southern states, South Carolina was shaping up to be a firewall state for both of their campaigns, the state in which any early momentum Romney accumulated would be stopped. But the new ARG poll from South Carolina (released with Iowa and New Hampshire numbers) shatters this strategy by showing Romney on top for the first time (not just in ARG polls, but any polls of South Carolina taken by any institute -- Romney hadn't even been close to being first!)

On the other hand, the Iowa and New Hampshire surveys contain some very bad news for the Romney campaign, as his large leads in IA and NH have mostly evaporated (this is confirmed by other recent polls). This leaves the campaign in a paradoxical situation: They seem to have finally moved the race in South Carolina, but that will be completely useless if they don't get their act together in the two earliest states. Without victories in Iowa or (and?) New Hampshire, Romney can kiss South Carolina (and the nomination) goodbye.

But however we spin this, the fact remains that Romney is leading all three of these early January states. He is more than ever the favorite to win the Republican nomination -- albeit a fragile one. Let's look at the numbers more closely:

• In Iowa, Romney is only up 22-21 on Giuliani. A month ago, his lead was 27-17. Thompson comes third at 16%, McCain fourth at 11% and Huckabee collapses from 14% to 4% in a month.
• In New Hampshire, Romney leads with 24%. McCain and Giuliani are tied for second at 20% (last month, McCain was only at 12%). For the second straight month, Thompson is stuck at 8%, while Huckabee collapses here too from 9% to 3%.
• In South Carolina, Romney has moved from 9% to 26% in a month. Giuliani is at 23%, McCain at 15%, and Thompson at 10% (down eleven points). Huckabee's free fall is most drastic in this state: Huckabee has been reduced to 1%, down eight!
  

These numbers contain a few other lessons besides Romney's stunning across-the-board lead. First - and this is confirmed by all three surveys -- Huckabee has completely lost his August momentum in the heels of his second-place finish in the Iowa Ames straw poll. He had finally broken the barrier that separated him from the first-tier, had gotten the media interested in him and covering his statements... It looks like Thompson's official entrance in the race and Giuliani's intense September activity sucked all the oxygen out of Huckabee's campaign.

Second, all three polls also show a McCain resurgence. The Arizona Senator is approaching his numbers from earlier in the spring, and is recovering from his campaign's July debacle. Third, Thompson's numbers have gone down significantly. Fred Thompson has failed to make a significant mark on this race. While polls shortly after his official candidacy showed he was enjoying a bounce and had closed in on Giuliani in national polls, there has been no evidence of even a faint movement in Thompson's favor in early states.

The Democratic numbers are less shocking, but Clinton confirms just how much of a favorite she is by posting very healthy leads in all three of the early states:

• In Iowa, Clinton's 30% distances Obama's 24%. Edwards comes third at 19%, and Richardson is fourth at 10%.
• In New Hampshire, Clinton has a massive 41-22 lead against Obama. Edwards, third at 10%, is basically tied with Richardson at 8%.
• In South Carolina, Clinton has 41%, followed by Obama's 30%. Edwards has fallen to a dismal 7% (he was second last month with 24%).

These polls are particularly meaningful because they confirms other recent IA and NH surveys in which Edwards is becoming increasingly weaker in Iowa and Clinton is building a massive lead in New Hampshire. Edwards should really be careful at this point, as his once firmly entranced positions are not looking so hot anymore.

There is no question, looking at these polls, that Clinton will sweep everything if she wins Iowa. But if Obama overtakes here there, he is close enough in South Carolina that he might ride the momentum to a victory there and turn the table on Clinton.