9.29.2007

Morning polls: SUSA strikes again, and Democrats look ready to pick up Kentucky

  • Washington uncomfortably close
SurveyUSA's now daily presidential poll was just released, and it is from the state of Washington today. Washington is among the slightly swing but must-win states for Democrats. Kerry won it rather comfortably, 53% to 46%. SUSA's numbers are too close to comfort if the GOP nominee is Giuliani, except when he is matched against Obama (that's a story we are not used to seeing from these SUSA polls):

  • Clinton is tied with Giuliani at 47%, but she leads Thompson by 10 (52-42) and Romney by 14 (54-40).
  • Edwards is also very close to Giuliani, leading him only 45-44. He leads Thompson 51-36 and Romney 55-31.
  • Obama does better than both: He wins by 11 against Giuliani (!), 52% to 41%. He also beats Thompson by 14% (54-40) and crushes Romney 57-35.
Obama's electability has not been a theme in the SUSA polls released in the past few weeks (Check them out: Minnesota, Ohio, New Mexico, Iowa, Missouri, Virginia, Wisconsin, Oregon), but he certainly performs much better than Edwards and Clinton here. And as always, notice how the percentage of undecideds drops in the Clinton questions (compare for example the Clinton-Romney and Edwards-Romney matchups).

  • Edwards crushes Republicans nationally
Is the election slipping away from the GOP? Days after Fox News polls showed Clinton with healthy national leads against Republicans and after Rasmussen said the same about Obama, here is a new Rasmussen poll that pits Edwards against Giuliani and Thompson. The results are excellent for the Democrat: He crushes Giuliani 50% to 41% and leads Thompson 49% to 39%.

But Edwards's decision to opt into public financing will make it harder for him to voice an electability argument. As top Edwards adviser Joe Trippi told Rolling Stone earlier in the summer, public financing would leave the nominee “flat broke like Mike Dukakis — getting the living shit kicked out of him all summer long.”

  • Fletcher sinking in Kentucky
Democrats are ready to move in the Kentucky Governor's Mansion. The election is in a little more than a month, and ethically very challenged incumbent Governor Fletcher has not recovered one bit over the past few months. Two new polls released this week show challenger Beshear with wide leads: The first is only 10% (45-35), but the polling firm's head explained that they did not push leaners and Beshear's margin of victory is likely to be widening. The second is from Bluegrass poll and pits the race at 55-35.

Kentucky is currently the most vulnerable governship for the incumbent party, but is followed very closely by Louisiana (check out the governor rankings). It is curious that there are so many polls from KY, and so few from LA.

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