Obama leads in Iowa, and keeps himself in the game

Barack Obama was having quite a bad week -- an erratic debate performance, worrisome polls from New Hampshire, an Edwards resurgence... But all of that is now a distant memory. A Newsweek poll out today shows him leading in Iowa, which is really all that matters at this point for the Obama campaign (the "whole shebang," as some would say).

Among likely caucus goers, Obama comes in first with 28%. He is followed by Hillary Clinton at 24%, and John Edwards at 22%. Bill Richardson comes in fourth, with 10%. Now, Newsweek also has numbers for all Iowa Democrats, and they paint a very different picture: There, Clinton is ahead with 31%, followed by Obama at 25% and Edwards at 21%.

But Iowa turn-out is very low, because of the huge commitment caucuses require (declaring your vote in public for a few hours on a cold night), and the Newsweek poll rightfully put a very tight "likely voter" screen. The second set of numbers are not very valuable.

But this also comes with a caveat: The margin of error in this poll is a huge 7%, which puts Obama's lead entirely in the margin of error. The second caveat is that 55% Clinton voters describe themselves as strong supporters, against only 41% of Obama's. Strong supporters are naturally much more likely to actually end up going to the caucuses on a cold January night.

Nevertheless, this is great news for Obama, as it demonstrates that he is definitely a very strong contender in Iowa. As has been obvious for weeks now, Iowa is the only obstacle on Clinton's path. If she wins the caucuses, she will probably sweep the early states and run to the nomination. If Obama wins here, though, he will have a great chance at overtaking Clinton -- starting in New Hampshire. The media lately had been starting to doubt Obama's ability to carry Iowa, and this will help his campaign silence skeptics.

The poll is also terrible news for Edwards. Not only is he now third in the state he used to lead earlier in the year, but his supporters are even less strong than Obama's (37% describe them as such). Without an Iowa win, Edwards knows he is toast -- so he is likely to put all his forces here. But coming a few days after news that Edwards was opting in the public financing system, his campaign will have to work overtime to maintain him as a top-tier candidate.

On the Republican side, the numbers are less surprising: Among likely caucus-goers, Mitt Romney leads with 24%. Fred Thompson follows at 16%, with Rudy Giuliani at 13%. And, in what is a confirmation of previous Iowa polls, Mike Huckabee (12%) comes in before McCain (9%). This basically means that Huckabee has entered a three-way tie for second place -- and could make a huge impact on the race were he to confirm that in early January.

But the internals of the race show it is still very fluid: While 39% of Thompson voters say they are strong supporters, only a dismal 26% say the say for Romney and 22% for Giuliani. Clearly, the state of the Iowa race could change dramatically in the next few months, though Romney is in a better position than he appears given that recent reports have indicated rival candidates are not looking to truly compete in this state.

Romney knows that the only path he has to the nomination goes through Iowa. And even though his support in this poll is tepid, his campaign will take comfort in the fact that he has led Iowa for months now, most recently in a poll released earlier this week.