New congressional races heating up in Minnesota and South Carolina

With a few months to go before the start of primary season, the recruitment process is getting wrapped up for Senate races, as time is running out for candidates to emerge and built the statewide infrastructure they will need to run a competitive campaign. The House picture is still very much in flux, as candidates can jump in races at a later time. Today brought with it two recruitment news, both on the Democratic side.

First, the South Carolina Senate race. Republican Senator Lindsay Graham is a very strong favorite to win re-election. In fact, he most has to fear a Republican primary from the Right, as Graham has attracted a lot of fire from conservative activists for various positions over the years. But Democrat want to be in a position of at least taking advantage of any potential weakness that could come up in the next few months, especially if Graham gets tangled up - and even possibly loses - a bloody ideological primary!

Joe Erwin, the state's Democratic Party's former chair is now reportedly considering jumping in the race. As I just mentioned, he would obviously be a huge underdog, but Democrats don't want to be in a position of Graham ending up badly bruised out of a primary and then unchallenged in the general election. That is what happened in MI-07 in 2006: conservative Tim Walberg beat incumbent Republican Rep. Schwarz in the primary, but by then Democrats had no strong candidate to challenge Walberg for the newly-opened seat.

Second, MN-06. Michele Bachmann was one of the few Republicans caught in tight races in 2006 to have a great night. She defeated Democrat Patty Wetterling 50% to 42%, even though the open seat was touted as a great opportunity for Democrats. The district leans slightly Republican, but it is definitely winnable by a Democrat -- and Bachmann has become a controversial figure due to her very socially conservative positions. Democrats are hoping Bachmann becomes Minnesota's Musgrave, a staunch Republican who routinely underperforms.

Today, Democrats got excited at news that Elwyn Tinklenberg, Minnesota's former Transportation Commissioner, would soon announce a run against Bachmann. Tinklenberg had actually been running for the open seat in 2006 until Wetterling dropped down from the Senate race to the House race and Tinklenberg let her have a go. The Politico notes that Tinklenberg got inspired to run again "after the collapse of the bridge in Minneapolis... given his background in transportation issues."

Democrats are hoping to put as many Republican seats as they can in play, to deflect attention from the large number of their own vulnerable freshmen. By forcing Republicans to play defense in seats like MN-6, Democrats are confident they will have no trouble holding the House in 2008.

In further good news for Democrats, Politics1 reports today that former GOP Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick -- who lost re-election in 2006 in one of the closest race of the country against Democrat Patrick Murphy in PA-08 -- had decided against running for his old seat back. The district leans slightly Democratic, and Murphy has been preparing for re-election since he got in Congress. Without Fitzpatrick running, the GOP might find another strong candidate, but it is unlikely they will choose to spend a lot of resources on this seat when they have other more promising districts to target.