Major Senate developments... and it's not even September yet!

Many Senate races were supposed to heat up in September, with incumbents announcing their retirement plans and potential challengers declaring their candidacies. But this usually quiet end of August has proved quite explosive on the Senate front.

• Idaho

Idaho was on few people's radar screen, despite rumors that Craig would retire and the energetic candidacy of former Democratic Congressman Larry LaRocco. Yesterday night's revelations that Craig had plead guilty to lewd behavior in a man's bathroom stunned the political world and eclipsed news of Gonzales's resignation. To make matters worse for Craig - if that's even possible at this point - the Idaho Statesman finally released an article it has been working on for months which investigates rumors of Craig's homosexuality and uncovered more evidence of gay relations. Craig was forced to call a press conference and emphatically declare, "I am not gay.' Whenever a (social conservative) politician makes headline with such a quote, you know he is in deep trouble. And With the Republican leadership and the Romney campaign distancing themselves from Craig as fast as they can, it seems Craig will have little choice but to retire or resign.

Unfortunately, Democratic chances aren't very high in Idaho. Dems can only hope that Craig somehow stubbornly refuses to let go. If he were to run again, he would obviously be very vulnerable, and the scent of scandal could very well drive a Democrat to victory. But if the seat opens up as is likely, the Republicans have a very deep bench in Idaho. Lt. Gov. (and former Gov.) Jim Risch and Rep. Mike Simpson would have little trouble dispatching any Democrat in a state Bush won with 67% of the vote in 2004.

Nonetheless, the Craig scandal is awful news for the Republicans. Their morale is going down even further, and the party is sinking in heavy depression. And the NRSC definitely does NOT want to have to spend a single dime of its money defending a seat in Idaho of all places, when it will have so many endangered incumbents around the country.
And how many Republican sex scandals have there now been over the past few weeks? This is bound to end up affecting the GOP's image, especially among evangelicals who were so key to Bush's 2004 election. Remember Vitter? And most importantly, remember Bob Allen, the Florida Senator arrested for cruising public bathroom for gay sex? Yes, the Craig and Allen stories sound painfully alike! Today's hilarious Nation article "The GOP's bathroom problem" is a must read.


• Louisiana

The bad news of the day. Republicans have been looking for a challenger to Senator Landrieu for months now, and Rove had been begging state Treasurer John Kennedy (a Democratic candidate for the 2004 open Senate seat won by Vitter) to switch parties and challenge Landrieu. A few weeks ago, Kennedy announced he was running for Attorney General in this fall's election, which people took as a sign he would not run for Senate next year. But he announced today he was switching parties and becoming a Republican (a week before the filing deadline, which means Democrats only have a week to find a candidate to oppose him), and this has naturally fueld major speculation he will announce he is running for Senate later in the fall. Landrieu is by far the most endangered Democratic incumbent in 2008, and post-Katrina demographics are not going to make her job any easier. The only reason she did not seem that vulnerable was Republican recruitement failures, but Kennedy's jumping in the race would change that overnight.


• South Dakota

Democrats are very relieved about South Dakota tonight. The outlook of this race entirely depends on (a) whether Johnson runs again, (b) whether he looks minimally healthy if he does. If it seems that he is up to the job, the GOP will likely be unwilling (or rather unable) to mount an aggressive campaign against him, and their strongest candidate - Gov. Rounds - will take a pass. Well, Johnson started answering questions today with his first public appearance since December. In what was obviously a carefuly rehearsed event, he proclaimed "I am back" to cheering supporters. And he announced he is planning to run for re-election on ABC. Rounds was present at the event and Sen. Thune appeared via video. This, coupled with the fact that South Dakota papers seemed generally positive about Johnson's health situation, could signal that Johnson is getting a pass from the state GOP and the media.