Romney's star shining a bit brighter

Recent developments in Iowa and in Michigan have improved Romney's prospects in the Republican race.

First up, Iowa. Romney has been the clear favorite to win the Iowa caucuses for quite some time. He convincingly won the Iowa Straw poll at Ames two weeks ago. At the time, most observers questioned whether the straw poll would have any influence on the race since the other top Republicans (Guiliani, Thompson and McCain) chose not to compete - ensuring that Romney would win the race uncontested. Well, the past two weeks have shown that yes, Ames did matter. Iowa Republicans seem to want to punish those candidates who snobbed them; Guiliani, Thompson and McCain have all gone down in recent polls while Huckabee - Romney's runner-up at the straw poll - is on fire and has closed in to second place.

Yesterday's eruption of gay marriage as an issue in the Iowa caucuses is a further boost to Romney. As discussed yesterday, gay rights is the last thing Giuliani wants to be asked about in town halls, while gay marriage is probably the social issue Romney is the most comfortable with. He is not deemed credible when he speaks about abortion, while he was an ardent opponent to gay marriage while Governor of Massachussets.

In response to yesterday's ruling, has has sought to press this advantage. He was the first major GOP candidate to react, and he did so in much stronger terms than McCain and Thompson who both oppose a federal amendment banning gay marriage. (Note: He also had the most severe comments against Craig, calling his actions "disgusting.") And he organized a special event today to condemn the ruling and show his leadership on the issue. Thus, Romney is simultaneously strenghtening his position with Iowa social conservatives and making sure Giuiliani stays weak in the state.

Romney's problem has always been his own weakness in South Carolina, as well as Giuiliani's strenght in the larger state. If he did not find a way to correct those two issues, any momentum out of an IA and NH victory could be lost. And now, here comes Michigan, offering a perfect solution. The Michigan House passed the bill this week making January 15th the new primary date - ahead of South Carolina, and two weeks ahead of Florida! And while the DNC will likely punish Michigan by stripping it of all its delegates, the RNC will only cut the MI delegates by half. The GOP primary of 01/15 would then be much more than a beauty contest.

Why is this good for Romney? Because Michigan is the best "big state" for his campaign - mostly because his father was Governor of the state! Michigan pollster EPIC/MRA released a very interesting poll today:
Romney 25%
Giuiliani 23%
Thompson 16%
McCain 15%
(The numbers on the Democratic side are less newsworthy. Clinton has a very healthy lead, leading Obama 40% to 21%).

Yes, Romney's lead is extremly narrow and statistically insignificant. But the contrast to other large states like CA, NY and - most importantly - FL could not be greater. There, Romney is being crushed. Here, he is tied for first. If Romney confirms his dominance in IA and NH, he is likely to roll to victory in Michigan (the same would not have been true if SC or FL had been third in line). And thus, Romney will get the big state win he needs, making sure to capitalize on early successes. And if Romney wins Iowa on January 5th, NH on the 8th and Michigan on the 15th, does anyone expect Giuiliani to remain as strong as he is in Florida and the later states? Certainly not!

Before Michigan changed its primary date, it just was not evident how Romney could possibly build on Iowa and New Hampshire victories with South Carolina and Florida looking soon after. But Michigan's leap to January 15th radically changes the dynamic on the Republican side, damaging Giuiliani's hopes to easely recover from power showings in Iowa and New Hampshire, and offering Romney an obvious path to the nomination.

And Giuliani is feeling the heat. He might be leading in national polls, but he realizes he is far from having closed the deal. The Politico's Martin reports today on a Giuliani campaign memo written by Giuliani aide Seaborn. The memo takes aim at Romney, marking a rare direct attack between candidates. And it's clear who Giuliani's campaign has in their sights: "Though crediting Mitt Romney for his "textbook campaign" in Iowa and New Hampshire, Seaborn writes that the former governor's advantage has been bought." And later:

Seaborn spends little time defending their own standing in Iowa and New Hampshire, instead choosing to focus on South Carolina, Florida and the February 5th states. "We are very strong in key states, like New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and California – states with a total of more than 350 delegates at stake," Seaborn writes, noting that the first three are, along with Delaware, are "winner-take-all" states and that the mayor can almost bank on "200+ delegates" on Feb. 5th.

That might have been true a week ago, but Michigan's move forward certainly undermines Seaborn's argument.