More Primary Updates: Union endorsement and ARG polls

Two major labor endorsements were announced in the past hour.

1. The Clinton campaign just scored a major (and slightly unexpected) victory. The International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (a 700,000 members union that is part of the AFL-CIO) has announced it is endorsing Clinton, in what is a setback for Edwards. It seems the Edwards campaign believed it would get the endorsement of this union. And more broadly, most of the Edwards strategy relies on strong backing from unions and he has aggressively courted labor over the past months.
2. Fortunately for Edwards, he got some good news too: The United Brotherhood of Carpenters and Joiners of America has announced it is endorsing Edwards. This union is also a major get, with 500,000 members. Good timing, too, to avoid media coverage of how Edwards is getting rejected by unions.

And American Research Group released some crazy polls of early states.

• Iowa: Clinton leads with 28% (30 in July), then Obama at 23% (15%) and Edwards at 20% (21%). Richardson confirms his impressive double-digit status at 13%.
• New Hampshire: Clinton leads with 37% (31 in July), then Obama at 17% (31%) and Edwards at 14% (14%)
• South Carolina : Clinton leads with 32% (29 in July), then Edwards at 24% (18%) and Obama at 21% (33%)

The IA poll goes entirely counter the Time poll I blogged about earlier. Iowa is extremely difficult to poll (since a tiny number of people go to caucus), but it is clearly very tight and if Edwards comes in third he can forget any presidential hopes. He would likely be forced out soon thereafter, which would be a huge relief for Obama - which leads us to the paradox that Clinton is actually rooting for a strong Edwards Iowa showing, to make sure the anti-Hillary vote stays divided between her two rivals.

The NH and SC are fishy as well, with a dramatic Obama collapse in both states. Likely way too big to be believable, but which was the outlier? The July or the August poll? These numbers are much more in line with other polling outlets which generally show Clinton clearly leading in NH and with a narrow advantage in SC. Clinton remains the clear favorite - as these polls demonstrate. Whatever the merits of the ARG polls, it is evident that her rivals have not endangered her frontrunner status at all for now.

The Republican numbers are also very interesting. The bottomline: Huckabee is on fire. State by state: The IA numbers confirm that Romney leads in the first voting-state, but by less than we are used to seeing. He is ten points ahead of Guiliani (27 to 24). The huge surprise is Huckabee's showing: 14%, a 13 point increase in one month - clearly a result of his strong showing at the Ames Straw Poll in early August. This comes at the expense of McCain, who collapses from 17% to 5%. Romney also leads in New Hampshire (he is 4 points ahead of Guiliani after being down 1 in July). Huckabee is at 9% in NH, an 8 points increase that shows that his momentum is not just in Iowa. And Guiliani leads by 5 against Thompson in SC, with Romney stuck far behind at 9 tied with a booming Huckabee.