Governor rankings: A quiet year now that LA and KY are gone
The two most vulnerable seats in my last rankings (Louisiana and Kentucky) were 2007 elections -- and both states saw pick-ups, as Jindal became the new GOP Governor of Louisiana and Democrat Beshear defeat incumbent Fletcher in Kentucky. Meanwhile Mississippi, rated "safe" in September, voted to re-elect Governor Barbour.
That leaves us with 11 races to be decided next year of which only three look to be competitive, not a very reach crop for those who like to follow gubernatorial elections. Democrats can hope to throw out unpopular incumbent governor Indiana and Missouri, while Dino Rossi will try to unseat Governor Gregoire in Washington in a rematch of the 2004 race that Republicans believe Rossi had won. This creates the unusual picture that none of the competitive races are open seats, since the two open goversnorships (Delaware and North Carolina) lean Democratic at this time.
Since the last rankings released in September, there were two changes of rankings: Indiana was upgraded from "lean retention" to "toss-up" as polls indicated that Daniels was in deep trouble; and North Carolina was downgraded from "lean retention" to "likely retention" as Republicans show no intention of seriously challenging the seat.
Full rankings and descriptions are here.
That leaves us with 11 races to be decided next year of which only three look to be competitive, not a very reach crop for those who like to follow gubernatorial elections. Democrats can hope to throw out unpopular incumbent governor Indiana and Missouri, while Dino Rossi will try to unseat Governor Gregoire in Washington in a rematch of the 2004 race that Republicans believe Rossi had won. This creates the unusual picture that none of the competitive races are open seats, since the two open goversnorships (Delaware and North Carolina) lean Democratic at this time.
Since the last rankings released in September, there were two changes of rankings: Indiana was upgraded from "lean retention" to "toss-up" as polls indicated that Daniels was in deep trouble; and North Carolina was downgraded from "lean retention" to "likely retention" as Republicans show no intention of seriously challenging the seat.
Full rankings and descriptions are here.
posted by Taniel at
5:23 PM
1 Comments:
Only three states have a real shot at switching parties, and I think the Democrats have the advantage in all three.
By
Anonymous, At
01 December, 2007 23:32
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