Early state news: Iowa trendlines confirmed

• Obama and Huckabee ahead in Iowa
  

The Des Moines Register just released its new poll of Iowa. And it confirms the trendlines we have seen over the past few weeks:

• In the Republican race, Mike Huckabee is ahead 29% to Romney's 24% -- the biggest lead he has had of yet. Rudy Giuliani is at 13%, Thompson has 9%, Ron Paul and John McCain are tied at 7%. Even Tancredo is joining the party, at 6%.
• A month ago, Romney had a more than massive lead: 29%! Thompson had 18% and Huckabee was only at 12% -- so a massive 17% surge in a single month for Huckabee! It would seem incredible if it was not confirmed by all the other Iowa polls.

Mitt Romney has two-three more weeks to stop Huckabee's surge before holidays kick in and voters stop paying attention. Huckabee's rise has been truly shocking, and puts Romney in a huge bind since it is hard to see how Romney survives a loss in Iowa given how much the expectations for him have been blown up in the caucuses.

• In the Democratic race, Barack Obama is ahead with 28%, followed by Clinton at 25% and John Edwards at 23%. Richardson follows in 9%.
• A month ago, Hillary was ahead with 29% versus 23% for Edwards and 22% for Obama. In May, it was Edwards with 29% followed by Obama's 23% and Clinton's 21%.

Interesting that the three polls of the Register have had the three Democrats leading. But they also reflect the three moments of the Iowa race: Edwards led in the state early in 2007 through the spring, when Clinton started picking up support. By the fall, Clinton had risen in Iowa and led all polls, sometimes by meaningful margins. And in the past 10 days, we have had three polls with Obama leading Clinton -- a major development in the state. Given Clinton's slide in New Hampshire as well, this puts her in grave danger of losing the first two states -- does she have any chance of snatching the nomination in such conditions?

• McCain gets good news in New Hampshire

The New Hampshire Union Leader -- a conservative paper that supported Forbes in 2000 and Pat Buchanan in 1992 and 1996 -- is about to its endorse John McCain this year. This could be a major development in the state and give McCain's candidacy some much-needed buzz. The endorsement appears due to McCain's position on the Iraq War.

McCain needs to win New Hampshire to have a chance at the nomination. And he could have a very real shot if Mitt Romney loses Iowa. That could cause Romney to fade in New Hampshire as well, and Huckabee is not strong yet in New Hampshire. That could give an opening for John McCain and Rudy Giuliani to battle for a New Hampshire victory. McCain has long been dogged by the base's perception that he is not Republican enough, and an endorsement such as this one will likely help him battle that.

The Union Leader is a Manchester-based daily that publishes front-page unsigned editorials -- something few newspapers do nowadays. And they promise in their editorial that, "We have known John McCain for many years. We will write more about him in the days ahead." So a constant stream of positive front-page pieces are to come for McCain in one of New Hampshire's largest newspapers.