It is not too soon to talk about the effect of the hostage situation
Rasmussen just came out with a new New Hampshire poll, and it has bad news for the Clinton campaign. The Fox News poll released yesterday was the first survey since July to have Clinton up by only single-digits in New Hampshire. We did not have to wait for long to get confirmation of this trend:
And in case we need more proof that something has really shifted in this primary, take a look at the latest daily tracking poll by Rasmussen, where Obama has reached 27% and is within single digits of Clinton who gets 36% for the first time in months.
But now that the hostage crisis is resolved and there were no injuries, we have to wonder about the political consequences of the day. New Hampshire's local TV spent the entire afternoon and evening covering the situation -- and carried Clinton's two declarations live (one from the DC area, and the other when she arrived in New Hampshire). By the time people got home on Friday evening and turned on their television sets, the crisis had already been mostly resolved and Clinton's declaration was soon to come.
A month from the primary and three weeks before the holiday season freezes campaigning, this was major exposure for Clinton and is bound to have some consequence on voter perception of her. The question is, will it be good or bad for her campaign? Some commentators speculate that this will reinforce the perception that Clinton is too polarizing and that the nation will be too divided with such crazy acts if she becomes the nominee/president -- which is more or less the Obama argument against her, after all. But this doesn't sound very convincing to me. It is hard to say what exactly happened until we know more, but the hostage taker seemed to have no connection with Clinton, no grudge or hatred against her. Under those conditions, there really is no reason for Clinton to suffer from accusations that the country will be in for eight years of partisan warfare if she becomes president.
The reverse argument is also true: There is no reason to expect voters to feel sympathy for Clinton and rally around her since this was not an attack against her. But to the extent that Clinton occupied much of the evening's television time after the crisis was resolved, she looked like a reassuring figure there to comfort viewers. She was clearly aware of the opportunity to show that she is ready to lead in time of crisis, however small the crisis is. Notice how she repeated in both of her appearances that she had talked to Governor Lynch minutes after the situation started unfolding. In her second press conference, Clinton surrounded herself with police officers. None of it seemed contrived or overdone, and it looked like standard practice in this kind of situation, but in the context of a presidential campaign where every image counts, being carried live on TV with policemen in the background is more valuable than running dozens of ads.
Update: How this plays out with the electorate will in great part be a result of how the media covers it. And it sure looks like the storyline the media is going with is the resolve and calm Clinton displayed -- just take a look at the AP article on Clinton's management of the crisis, for it's pretty much as good as Clinton could hope for:
- Clinton us up with 33%, followed by Obama at 26%, Edwards at 15%, and Richardson at 9%.
And in case we need more proof that something has really shifted in this primary, take a look at the latest daily tracking poll by Rasmussen, where Obama has reached 27% and is within single digits of Clinton who gets 36% for the first time in months.
But now that the hostage crisis is resolved and there were no injuries, we have to wonder about the political consequences of the day. New Hampshire's local TV spent the entire afternoon and evening covering the situation -- and carried Clinton's two declarations live (one from the DC area, and the other when she arrived in New Hampshire). By the time people got home on Friday evening and turned on their television sets, the crisis had already been mostly resolved and Clinton's declaration was soon to come.
A month from the primary and three weeks before the holiday season freezes campaigning, this was major exposure for Clinton and is bound to have some consequence on voter perception of her. The question is, will it be good or bad for her campaign? Some commentators speculate that this will reinforce the perception that Clinton is too polarizing and that the nation will be too divided with such crazy acts if she becomes the nominee/president -- which is more or less the Obama argument against her, after all. But this doesn't sound very convincing to me. It is hard to say what exactly happened until we know more, but the hostage taker seemed to have no connection with Clinton, no grudge or hatred against her. Under those conditions, there really is no reason for Clinton to suffer from accusations that the country will be in for eight years of partisan warfare if she becomes president.
The reverse argument is also true: There is no reason to expect voters to feel sympathy for Clinton and rally around her since this was not an attack against her. But to the extent that Clinton occupied much of the evening's television time after the crisis was resolved, she looked like a reassuring figure there to comfort viewers. She was clearly aware of the opportunity to show that she is ready to lead in time of crisis, however small the crisis is. Notice how she repeated in both of her appearances that she had talked to Governor Lynch minutes after the situation started unfolding. In her second press conference, Clinton surrounded herself with police officers. None of it seemed contrived or overdone, and it looked like standard practice in this kind of situation, but in the context of a presidential campaign where every image counts, being carried live on TV with policemen in the background is more valuable than running dozens of ads.
Update: How this plays out with the electorate will in great part be a result of how the media covers it. And it sure looks like the storyline the media is going with is the resolve and calm Clinton displayed -- just take a look at the AP article on Clinton's management of the crisis, for it's pretty much as good as Clinton could hope for:
When the hostages had been released and their alleged captor arrested, a regal-looking Hillary Rodham Clinton strolled out of her Washington home, the picture of calm in the face of crisis.
The image, broadcast just as the network news began, conveyed the message a thousand town hall meetings and campaign commercials strive for — namely, that the Democratic presidential contender can face disorder in a most orderly manner.
posted by Taniel at
11:56 AM
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