ARG releases its monthly wave of early-state polls: Huckabee rises, and Iowa tied for both parties

It's that time of the month when ARG gets every political junkie excited and releases its wave of 6 early state polls from Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. Let's go straight to the numbers, party by party.

Democrats: Obama edges out Clintin in IA, but she remains solid in NH and SC.

• In Iowa, Barack Obama is now ahead 27% to Hillary's 25%. Edwards is behind at 23%. In the second tier, there is some major movement as well: Biden, who has been rising for months, now reaches 8%, while Richardson collapses to 4% (12% last month).
• This is a major slide by Clinton, and a big improvement for Obama. Two weeks ago, Clinton led 27% to 21% for Obama and 20% for Edwards. A month ago, it was Clinton at 32%, Obama at 22% and Edwards at 15%. The pattern is clear.


• In New Hampshire, Clinton remains ahead -- though she slides a bit here too. She leads 34%to Obama's 23%. Edwards is at 17%. Richardson is not far behind, at 10%.
• A month ago, it was Clinton at 40%, Obama at 22% and Edwards at 10% -- so the race is tightening, as the Clinton-Edwards gap has been cut by half.


• In South Carolina, however, Clinton manages to expand her lead. She reaches 45% (her all-time high in the state, versus 21% for Obama and 12% for Edwards. Biden is at 6%.

The numbers are very much in line with everything we have seen in the past few weeks. Clinton's lead has shrunk in New Hampshire, and it is not clear now whether she would be able to sustain that lead if she lost Iowa to Obama -- the state will likely not hold very well as a firewall. Iowa remains as tight as it has ever been, and Clinton, who had finally managed to build up a lead in September and October has now pretty much completely lost it. Joe Biden predicted yesterday that one of the top-three would not make it into the top three at Iowa... and he might very well be right given the nature of Iowa dynamics.

Could it all come down to South Carolina then, for Clinton? Don't forget that South Carolina Democrats vote on the 29th, not the 19th, which would actually a blessing for Clinton if she loses the first two states as she would have time to regroup and launch an all-out campaign (think of what would have happened in the GOP race in 2000 if South Carolina had been 3 days after McCain's New Hampshire triumph?). But we are not there yet, and it's really useless to speculate about the race given that all eyes are - and will remain - on Iowa.


Republicans: Huckabee is up everywhere, Romney still looks strong

• In Iowa, Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee are stastically tied: 28% to 27%. At least this will prevent the media for touting a second poll with Huckabee ahead. Everone else is far behind, and Thompson does surprisingly well at 14%. Rudy Giuliani and mcCain are tied at 9%.
• These numbers are similar to the ones ARG released two ago, when Romney was up 26-24 on Huckabee. But in a troubling sign for Romney, only 56% of his supporters are definite versus 89% of Huckabee's!


• In New Hampshire, however, Mitt Romney barely breaks a sweat: He is ahead 36% to Rudy Giuliani's 22%. Huckabee is in double-digits for the first time at 13%, with McCain dropping to 11%. And in a shocking display weakness that we have grown accustomed to, Thompson gets 3%!
• A month ago, Romney was ahead 30% to 23% on Giuliani. The big difference now is McCain's drop from 17%, and Huckabee's rise from 11%.


• Rasmussen also released a NH poll this morning, and has sensibly similar findings: Romney at 34%, Rudy and McCain tied at 15% with Mike Huckabee only one point behind at 14%. Ron Paul has 8%, and Thompson 3%
• In both the Rasmussen and the ARG surveys, Mitt Romney's total reaches the highest level of support he has ever received from these polls.


• Finally, there is South Carolina. ARG finds Romney dropping at Huckabee's expense in what has essentially become a complete toss-up: Rudy Giuliani has 23%, Mitt Romney has 21%, Mike Huckabee has 18%, Thompson is at 13% and McCain at 10%.
• A month ago, Mike Huckabee only had 5% -- a shocking surge for a man whose campaign is based in Iowa at this point.

All in all, this confirms everything we have seen: The GOP race is very much up for grabs. If Romney wins Iowa, he will probably be unstoppable, as he will roll through victories in New Hampshire, Michigan, and probably South Carolina. If Huckabee wins in Iowa, that would throw everything wide open and Giuliani would see his chances increase to carry New Hampshire. At this point, Romney's lead is expanding in that state which should give him hope to carry New Hampshire even if he loses Iowa. But that still seems a bit unlikely to me. His support is typically soften and could dissipate overnight -- much like Howard Dean's in 2004.

Just like in the Democratic race, the Iowa contest will be more crucial than we anticipated.