New Mexico shuffle: Steve Pearce jumps in NM Senate race, opens up his Hous seat
Republican Rep. Steve Pearce is jumping in the New Mexico Senate open seat. This means that the Republicans will have a very competitive primary between the state's two Representatives -- Pearce and Heather Wilson, who declared for the seat the day after Pete Domenici announced his retirement. A poll taken by SUSA soon after found that Pearce was a much stronger election general candidate than Wilson.
Both Pearce and Wilson have their weaknesses in the race: Pearce is considered by many to be too conservative to win a competitive general election, and Wilson, more moderate, is tainted by her involvement in the attorneys firing scandal that likely pushed Domenici further towards the exit. Surprisingly, Hastert and Cheney are both already committed to the Wilson campaign.
That any of these weaknesses matter depends of course on who the Democratic nominee is. The only declared candidate right now is Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez, who many view as too moderate and ultimately weak. Rep. Udall, who would be a favorite to win the seat, has decided to stay in the House - a big blow to Democrats. And today, former state Attorney General Patricia Madrid said she was staying out of the Senate race in which many thought she would jump. That leaves Democrats with one last option besides Chavez: Lieutenant Governor Denish, who has not yet announced.
This shuffle also has consequences in the House: Pearce will be leaving NM-03 and his seat will now be open. NM-03 leans Republican, but is not a deep red district either. This also means that two out of three of the state's congressional seats will be open in 2008. Democrats already have more than one candidate in the race, and the primary appears that it will be competitive between conservative Harry Teague and union-backed Bill McCamley.
Democrats have a much better opportunity in NM-01, and things are heating up there as well. In announcing that she would not run for Senate, Madrid hinted that she was looking at a House run. She was the Democratic nominee here in 2006 and lost the race by about 1000 vote after a disastrous last month of campaigning -- but she had been a rising star of the Dem Party before that. She would face a competitive primary, though, as Democrats already have serious candidates in the race - especially Martin Heinrich.
As for the Republicans in NM-01, their leading candidate appears to be Sheriff Darren White. He actually just released an internal poll of the race showing him leading the primary race and also the general election against Heinrich (51-33) and Madrid (51-39). Keep in mind this is an internal poll, so independent numbers should look very different once they're out.
Both Pearce and Wilson have their weaknesses in the race: Pearce is considered by many to be too conservative to win a competitive general election, and Wilson, more moderate, is tainted by her involvement in the attorneys firing scandal that likely pushed Domenici further towards the exit. Surprisingly, Hastert and Cheney are both already committed to the Wilson campaign.
That any of these weaknesses matter depends of course on who the Democratic nominee is. The only declared candidate right now is Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez, who many view as too moderate and ultimately weak. Rep. Udall, who would be a favorite to win the seat, has decided to stay in the House - a big blow to Democrats. And today, former state Attorney General Patricia Madrid said she was staying out of the Senate race in which many thought she would jump. That leaves Democrats with one last option besides Chavez: Lieutenant Governor Denish, who has not yet announced.
This shuffle also has consequences in the House: Pearce will be leaving NM-03 and his seat will now be open. NM-03 leans Republican, but is not a deep red district either. This also means that two out of three of the state's congressional seats will be open in 2008. Democrats already have more than one candidate in the race, and the primary appears that it will be competitive between conservative Harry Teague and union-backed Bill McCamley.
Democrats have a much better opportunity in NM-01, and things are heating up there as well. In announcing that she would not run for Senate, Madrid hinted that she was looking at a House run. She was the Democratic nominee here in 2006 and lost the race by about 1000 vote after a disastrous last month of campaigning -- but she had been a rising star of the Dem Party before that. She would face a competitive primary, though, as Democrats already have serious candidates in the race - especially Martin Heinrich.
As for the Republicans in NM-01, their leading candidate appears to be Sheriff Darren White. He actually just released an internal poll of the race showing him leading the primary race and also the general election against Heinrich (51-33) and Madrid (51-39). Keep in mind this is an internal poll, so independent numbers should look very different once they're out.
posted by Taniel at
5:42 PM
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