Good week-end news for House Democrats
A few days after Democrats recruited state Senator Ethan Berkowitz to run against tainted Alaska Representative Don Young, a new poll by pollster Ivan Moore shows Young trailing the Democrat in this reliably Republican state: 51% to 45.5%.
This appears to come both from Young's weakness in the wake of allegations of unethical conduct (his favorable rating is at 43% only) and from Berkowitz's strength. The Democrat has strong name-recognition (only 15% of voters do not recognize him). The AK-AL seat is not supposed to be particularly competitive - Democrats have not had much luck in the state lately. But with the state's entire congressional delegation under scrutiny, it is not good to be a Republican there these days, and Democrats might very well take advantage.
Meanwhile, another Republican representative named Young might be headed for retirement. Florida's 10th district's Bill Young recently released his fundraising numbers for the third quarter, and he only reported 29,000 dollars raised in the past three months. Young was raising much more money earlier in the year. Young has served in the House for 36 years, and he sits on a very competitive district that voted for John Kerry in 2004 by two points. He knows that he has a target on his back and that he needs to campaign more actively to avoid defeat, so the drop-off could indicate he is no longer planning to run for re-election. An open seat in FL-10 would be yet another terrible blow for Republican hopes in the House, as they already have so many vulnerable open seats to defend.
Finally, Nancy Pelosi relieved many today by saying the Kyl-Lieberman amendment on Iran would not make it to the House floor for a vote. Pelosi objected to the labeling of the Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organization. More than anything, this proves that Obama is not a staunch opponent of the bill as he claims, since he openly supports such a label.
Naturally, this momentum for House Democrats would completely reverse if the GOP managed to snatch away MA-05 in the special election taking place in 36 hours. There are many indications that the race is much more competitive than it should be.
This appears to come both from Young's weakness in the wake of allegations of unethical conduct (his favorable rating is at 43% only) and from Berkowitz's strength. The Democrat has strong name-recognition (only 15% of voters do not recognize him). The AK-AL seat is not supposed to be particularly competitive - Democrats have not had much luck in the state lately. But with the state's entire congressional delegation under scrutiny, it is not good to be a Republican there these days, and Democrats might very well take advantage.
Meanwhile, another Republican representative named Young might be headed for retirement. Florida's 10th district's Bill Young recently released his fundraising numbers for the third quarter, and he only reported 29,000 dollars raised in the past three months. Young was raising much more money earlier in the year. Young has served in the House for 36 years, and he sits on a very competitive district that voted for John Kerry in 2004 by two points. He knows that he has a target on his back and that he needs to campaign more actively to avoid defeat, so the drop-off could indicate he is no longer planning to run for re-election. An open seat in FL-10 would be yet another terrible blow for Republican hopes in the House, as they already have so many vulnerable open seats to defend.
Finally, Nancy Pelosi relieved many today by saying the Kyl-Lieberman amendment on Iran would not make it to the House floor for a vote. Pelosi objected to the labeling of the Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organization. More than anything, this proves that Obama is not a staunch opponent of the bill as he claims, since he openly supports such a label.
Naturally, this momentum for House Democrats would completely reverse if the GOP managed to snatch away MA-05 in the special election taking place in 36 hours. There are many indications that the race is much more competitive than it should be.
posted by Taniel at
4:46 PM
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