Presidential Diary: Edwards gets key union endorsement, while Clinton tanks in Nevada

• Edwards picks-up key union endorsment

A few days after the national SEIU announced it would not endorse in the Democratic primary and freed up its locals to endorse a candidate of their choice on a state-by-state-basis -- in what was a major blow to the Edwards campaign, the Iowa SEIU is set to endorse John Edwards. This is great news for Edwards, for the decision of the national union says that any state SEIU in any state that has endorsed Edwards can now come in Iowa and help out -- and SEIU sections that endorse other candidates cannot play in Iowa.

With Edwards also lining up the support of the California SEIU, this could pay off for Edwards. He really needs all the help he can get at this point. With Obama and Clinton attacking each other left and right, the race is increasingly appearing to be a dogfight between the two -- making Edwards look increasingly irrelevant. News like this puts him right back in play.

• Clinton, Romney lead in New Hampshire

A new Marist poll shows Clinton and Romney leading in the primary -- as always. The numbers are pretty much in line with other polls we have seen from the state:

• Clinton leads with 41%, far ahead of Obama at 20% and Edwards at 12%.
• Among Republicans, Romney has a small lead: 25% versus Giuliani's 21%. McCain at 17% confirms his strength in NH, and Thompson is far behind at 10%.

Romney has admirably maintained his lead in NH, though it has become very small. As long as he wins Iowa as he is supposed to, he can count on a NH win. As for Obama, he used to be much closer to Clinton earlier this summer, and has collapsed since then. Here is a detailed analysis of Obama's negative trendline.

• Nevada stays red

Nevada ended up featuring a very close race in 2004, with George Bush coming out with a narrow victory. With Democrats looking at the West for new electoral votes, they see Nevada as one of their most promising states. But a new Mason-Dixon poll suggests that Clinton would have a very difficult time being competitive in the state:

• Clinton would lose all three of her match-ups, never exceeding 44% -- even against Mitt Romney! She loses 51-44 against Rudy Giuliani, 50-44 against Fred Thompson, and 49-43 against Mitt Romney.
• Mason-Dixon did not poll other Democrats in general election races.
• In her primary race, Clinton leads with 39%, with Obama at 21%, John Edwards at 9%, and Bill Richardson, who hails from a neighboring state, at 8%.
• Among Republicans, Giuliani has the lead at 28%, followed by Thompson at 23%, and Romney at 17%. An ARG poll taken a few days ago had Romney and Giuliani in a statistical tie, 31% to 30%.

We are not used to seeing Clinton be not at all competitive in a state, as Republicans are usually in an awful situation in most state poll. So this has to be confirmed by other polls.