Lots of morning polls: Clinton posts some very strong numbers in general election and primary

• Clinton very competitive in Alabama

Of all the states a Democrat is expected to be competitive in, Alabama is not one of them. One of the most reliably Republican states, this is deep red territory. The last Democrat to carry it was Jimmy Carter in 1976 -- who carried much of the deep South. The latest SUSA poll that has Clinton very competitive is thus very surprising.

• Giuliani leads against Clinton 52% to 44%. Against Thompson, Clinton trails only by 6, 51% to 45%. McCain runs best: 52% to 43%.
• But Clinton leads against three other Republicans! She edges Romney 48-46 and Huckabee 47-46. And in the first state poll I've seen that tries out Ron Paul, she beats him 48-42%.

SUSA had also polled Alabama a month ago, and had also found a competitive race. Clinton has actually improved since then -- she trailed Giuliani by 11. The fact that there now are not one but two Alabama polls that show this probably means there is something to this... Remember that one of the main arguments used by Clinton's rivals is that she would not be able to put traditionally Republican or even purple states in play, whereas Obama or Edwards could expand the map. So Clinton can certainly get a boost out of these Alabama numbers.

• Missouri a toss-up, as always, both in the presidential and governor race
  

Rasmussen just released a general election poll from Missouri, traditionally a very close state with a slight Republican lean. And these numbers confirm that 2008 will be close again, though Hillary Clinton loses ground since last month where she led (albeit slightly) both Rudy and Fred. She is now tied with Thompson at 44%, and trails Giuliani 45-42. Important to point out that Democrats do not particularly need Missouri to win the White House. If anything, it is a must-win state for the GOP. Obama trails by more: He is behind Giuliani by five and trails Thompson by nine!

Rasmussen also polled the gubernatorial race, and the numbers are just as close. Governor Blunt leads his Democratic challenger Attorney General Nixon by an insignificant point. A month ago, Nixon was on top by 3. This race will stay close up to the election, most probably. It is the purest toss-up in next year's governor races.

• Clinton holds her on in New Jersey
  

Rasmussen also polled New Jersey, which usually goes comfortably to Democrats. But Rudy Giuliani has long argued that he would put coastal states in play - especially New Jersey. Polls have indicated that he might be right, and that NJ might be way too close for comfort for Dems if Rudy runs. Well at least the Rasmussen poll should make Dems feel a bit better.

Hillary leads Rudy 51% to 40%. While Giuliani runs significantly better than the other candidtaes, he does not improve on Bush's 2004 numbers. Hillary leads McCain 52-36, Thompson 53-35, and Romney 55-31. Clinton's favorable rating stands at 58% in this state -- much higher than what we are used to seeing in other places.

• Hillary breaks 50% nationally, again
  

In the primary, Clinton continues to improve her stance and look more and more invincible (as far as she is concerned now, just looking invincible works wonders). In the new USA Today Gallup poll, she breaks 50%. This is only the third national primary poll in which she manages that... and they have all come out in the past two weeks. Clinton leads 50% to Obama's 21%. Edwards comes at 13%. More worrisome for the rival campaigns is that two thirds of Clinton supports say they are "certain of their choice." Also going against the conventional wisdom that Clinton is the candidate of the head and Obama of the heart, Democrats are more enthusiastic about Clinton (64%) than Obama (49%).

• California primary not close in either party

Clinton wins in even more of a blow-out in the key primary state of California. A new primary poll from Survey USA has Clinton with a massive lead: 57% to 20% for Barack Obama! Edwards is at 13%. California will play a crucial role in the primary season, as the biggest prize of February 5th. And before the numbers are dismissed are meaningless and a mere reflection of Clinton's national lead in a state where campaigning hasn't started, notice that SUSA polls the race every month, and this is by far the biggest gap. Obama had never been as low as 20% in the past six months. Last month, it was 51-27.

Republican numbers have Giulini once again up and mighty. He had been challenged a bit last month by Fred Thompson, but these months number confirm that California is one of Rudy's biggest hopes. He posts his largest lead of the past 6 months, 39% to Thompson's 18%. Romney at 14% and McCain at 13% are basically tied. The question is, naturally, whether Giuliani can maintain these numbers if he loses Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina in January...