Are Democrats on the verge of losing a House seat in blue Massachusetts?
The House playing field seems to be dramatically favoring Democrats, as Republicans are lagging in recruitment and as GOP-held swing districts keep opening up. Yet, Republicans could pull a huge upset this Tuesday in a special election in Massachusetts's fifth district. Rep. Meehan resigned to become the Chancellor of the University of Massachusetts, Lowell.
MA-05 is not the bluest district of Massachusetts, but it is still reliably Democratic. Meehan ran unopposed in 2006, but regularly won his prior races with more than 60% of the vote. In fact, all ten Massachusetts representatives are Democrats -- making the state the biggest one party House delegation.
This is therefore the last place we would expect a competitive race. But that is exactly what we have got. Democrats nominated Niki Tsongas, the widow of former Senator Tsongas who unsuccessfully ran for the presidential nomination in 2002. Republicans settled for Jim Ogonowski, a veteran of the Air Guard, who is trying to portray himself as a moderate with few ties to the Republican establishment. Ognowski criticized the Iraq War as a "mistake," though he also repeated the Administration's stance that withdrawal would lead to further chaos. He also ran an ad about his brother, killed on September 11th.
The latest SUSA poll of the race shows Tsongas with a 9% lead, outside of the margin of error, but too small for Democrats to be confident -- especially because of the unpredictability of turn-out in a special election. SUSA also shows a 55 percent gender gap, and Ognowski leading by 13% among self-identified independents.
Clearly getting nervous, Tsongas has upped the stakes and got Bill Clinton to come campaign for her. If Republicans pull off an upset, it could dramatically boost GOP morale in congressional campaigns. We could see many Republicans who were reluctant to get in races now jump in House races, feeling 2008 could be better than expected after all. In other words, a lot is at stake this Tuesday.
MA-05 is not the bluest district of Massachusetts, but it is still reliably Democratic. Meehan ran unopposed in 2006, but regularly won his prior races with more than 60% of the vote. In fact, all ten Massachusetts representatives are Democrats -- making the state the biggest one party House delegation.
This is therefore the last place we would expect a competitive race. But that is exactly what we have got. Democrats nominated Niki Tsongas, the widow of former Senator Tsongas who unsuccessfully ran for the presidential nomination in 2002. Republicans settled for Jim Ogonowski, a veteran of the Air Guard, who is trying to portray himself as a moderate with few ties to the Republican establishment. Ognowski criticized the Iraq War as a "mistake," though he also repeated the Administration's stance that withdrawal would lead to further chaos. He also ran an ad about his brother, killed on September 11th.
The latest SUSA poll of the race shows Tsongas with a 9% lead, outside of the margin of error, but too small for Democrats to be confident -- especially because of the unpredictability of turn-out in a special election. SUSA also shows a 55 percent gender gap, and Ognowski leading by 13% among self-identified independents.
Clearly getting nervous, Tsongas has upped the stakes and got Bill Clinton to come campaign for her. If Republicans pull off an upset, it could dramatically boost GOP morale in congressional campaigns. We could see many Republicans who were reluctant to get in races now jump in House races, feeling 2008 could be better than expected after all. In other words, a lot is at stake this Tuesday.
posted by Taniel at
1:44 PM
1 Comments:
Tsongas will likely win the seat by the almost the same margin the polls are showing, about 52%-43%, which is the same margin Marty Meehan won the seat by in 1992.
By
Anonymous, At
13 October, 2007 20:01
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