While waiting for Kerrey...

Some Senate news coming out today, though we are still waiting for Kerrey's decision. Kerrey has the power to single-handedly alter the 2008 Senate picture, but other events still deserve some attention.

• Nebraska's GOP field getting thinner

A day after a poll of the GOP primary in Nebraska showed Mike Johanns with a large lead and former Omaha Mayor Hal Daub running third, Daub withdrew from the race and endorsed Johanns. This is especially surprising given that Daub had already run a week-long ad in the state.

This is not necessarily good news for Johanns (and, by extension, not necessarily bad news for Democrats). Joe Bruning, the state's Attorney General, has shown no indication that he will back down from the primary. Bruning is young, ambitious and had initially planned on running in the primary against Hagel. If Bruning is ready to take on an incumbent senator, why would he back down when the seat is now open? And a two-way race might be more dangerous for Johanns than a three-way contest in which he could have triangulated - much like what Hillary is doing with Obama and Edwards in the presidential race!

Why is this meaningful? If Kerrey runs, he will be in a great position, and would benefit from a contested GOP primary. If he does not, well, Democratic chances get much slimmer but they still have the potential candidacy of Omaha Mayor Fahey. Against Johanns, Fahey would probably not stand much of a chance. But against Bruning, the race would probably be much more competitive.

• Texas still second-tier at best

Research 2000 just released a poll (commissioned by DailyKos!) of the Texas Senate race. Incumbent Republican Senator John Cornyn leads Democratic challenger Noriega 51-35%. Last month, a Rasmussen poll pitted the race at 53-30. This is a healthy lead for Cornyn - and is above 50%. However, Democrats will take heart in the fact that Noriega is a complete unknown state wide but he polls only 16% behind the incumbent. Furthermore, the internals are pretty disastrous for Cornyn, whose re-elect is only at 40%. His approval rating isn't much better.

Yet, this election is far from being truly competitive. Texas remains strongly Republican - especially in a presidential year, and it is too expansive a race for the DSCC to just "try it out" and test the incumbent. Cornyn might not have a big lead, but Noriega's numbers are basically that of a generic Democrat here. They don't necessarily represent what voters will choose when they actually have to decide between a Republican and a Democrat.

• Johnson wants you to know he is running

Republicans only have two seats to challenge in 2008: Louisiana and South Dakota. And it has increasingly appeared that the GOP would not try to mount a strong challenge to Tim Johnson in SD if the incumbent senator, who suffered a terrible stroke at the end of 2006, decided to run again. Johnson came back on the public stage late August, and repeatedly stated he was planning on running again. This did not squash speculation that Johnson might still retire, and the Democrat stressed again this week that he is planning on running: “I am more determined than ever to run for re-election and continue serving the people of South Dakota in the United States Senate. Please contribute to my campaign before the September 30th end of quarter deadline.” So is Johnson for real? Or is this caused by the fact that the 3rd Quarter is ending in a few days, and the undecided incumbent is still going through the motions of a re-election campaign? At this point, we have to bet on the former.